字号·· | 护眼
商业内幕

科技投资者保罗·威克:有关人工智能的“末日论”被夸大了Tech investor Paul Wick says 'doom and gloom' over AI is overblown

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

保罗·维克(Paul Wick)是赛利格曼投资公司(Seligman Investments)的首席投资官。Paul Wick is the CIO of Seligman Investments.

资深科技投资者表示,人工智能热潮带有互联网泡沫的影子,但对即将到来的崩盘和大规模失业的担忧被夸大了。

The AI boom has shades of the dot-com bubble, but fears of an imminent crash and mass unemployment are overblown, a veteran tech investor says.

本周,保罗·威克(Paul Wick)在接受《商业内幕》采访时表示,在本世纪之交,互联网初创企业呈爆发式增长,电信公司“激进”地在有线和无线网络上进行大量基础设施建设。

At the turn of this century, there was an explosion in dot-com startups being formed, and a huge infrastructure buildout with telecoms "aggressively" spending on wired and wireless networks, Paul Wick told Business Insider in an interview this week.

作为赛利格曼投资公司(Seligman Investments)的首席投资者,威克表示,这段时期与当前的人工智能初创企业和数据中心支出热潮之间存在明显的相似之处。赛利格曼投资公司是哥伦比亚线程针投资公司(Columbia Threadneedle Investments)旗下的一个集团,管理着超过400亿美元的资产,旗下包含一个对冲基金、一个共同基金和一个风险投资部门。他还指出,当时的能源价格和利率正如今年一样出现了飙升。

The chief investor of Seligman Investments — a group within Columbia Threadneedle Investments that manages over $40 billion of assets and comprises a hedge fund, a mutual fund, and a venture capital arm — said there were clear parallels between that period and the current boom in AI startups and data-center spending. He also noted that energy prices and interest rates jumped then as they've done this year.

不过,威克指出,目前并没有出现当时那样的首次公开募股(IPO)狂热,也没有股票一天飙升五倍或十倍的“狂热环境”。他还表示,到2000年底,市场已预测2001年的IT支出将会放缓,而目前企业对人工智能的支出依然强劲,最近的科技企业财报也十分稳健。简而言之,他表示,现在的情况似乎比2000年时“更健康”。

But Wick noted there isn't the same IPO frenzy now, or the same "frenetic environment" where stocks soar fivefold or tenfold in a day. He also said that by late 2000, a slowdown in IT spending was being forecasted for 2001, whereas enterprise spending on AI remains strong and recent tech earnings have been robust. Simply put, the situation seems "healthier" now than in 2000, he said.

《商业内幕》就迈克尔·巴里(Michael Burry)今年对人工智能发出的警告询问了威克。这位因《大空头》闻名的投资者曾指出,激进的会计准则、循环融资、隐藏债务以及对微芯片等贬值资产的过度投资,是让人怀疑这股热潮能否持续的理由。

Business Insider asked Wick about Michael Burry's warnings this year around AI. "The Big Short" investor has called out aggressive accounting, circular financing, hidden debt, and overinvestment in depreciating assets like microchips as reasons to be skeptical that the boom has legs.

威克表示,以预测并从中本世纪中期房地产泡沫破裂中获利而闻名的巴里,“在许多其他事情上为时过早或完全错误”。巴里此前曾为自己的过往业绩辩护,列举了他正确的预测并分享了显示其市场判断时机的图表。

Wick said that Burry, known for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the mid-2000s housing bubble, has been "early or downright wrong on many other things." Burry has previously defended his track record, citing his correct predictions and sharing charts showing the timing of his market calls.

至于外界对英伟达(Nvidia)通过投资数据中心开发商和软件公司来壮大人工智能生态系统这一举措的担忧,威克强调,这家芯片制造商“极其盈利”。他质疑英伟达是否应该将多余的现金仅用于股票回购,而不是去扶持其客户,尤其是在该行业的几个最大玩家正致力于开发自己的AI芯片以减少对英伟达的依赖之际。

As for concerns about Nvidia's efforts to grow the AI ecosystem by investing in data center developers and software companies, Wick emphasized that the chipmaker is "extraordinarily profitable." He cast doubt on whether Nvidia should spend its spare cash only on buybacks, rather than bolstering its customers, especially as several of the industry's biggest players are working to develop their own AI chips to reduce their reliance on Nvidia.

不过,他也指出了需要关注的一些行业趋势,包括企业客户选择使用旧模型或构建自己的模型,以及随着用户拥抱开源模型,代币(token)定价面临压力,这引发了外界对OpenAI和Anthropic等公司市场机遇规模的质疑。

But he also flagged some industry trends to watch, including enterprise clients opting to use older models or build their own, and token pricing coming under pressure as users embrace open-source models, raising questions over the size of the market opportunity for the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic.

威克就年轻人如何在人工智能时代脱颖而出发表了看法。他说:“过去,计算机科学学位是通往成功的通行证。”

Wick weighed in on how a young person can get ahead in the AI era. "It used to be that a degree in computer science was a ticket to success," he said.

威克表示,如今更好的选择可能是学习一门手艺,因为电工和暖通空调技术人员等工人的“需求旺盛”,他们无需上四年制大学就能过上“令人难以置信的优渥生活”。

A better option today might be to learn a trade, as there's "booming demand" for workers such as electricians and HVAC technicians, and they can make an "incredibly good living" without having to go to a four-year college, Wick said.

他还反驳了“人工智能将摧毁人类劳动力需求”的“末日论观点”。他将这种担忧形容为“为时过早”,因为没有人确切知道人工智能未来将如何影响入门级岗位,失业率尚未飙升,且企业和消费者在改变行为时总是存在惰性。

He also took aim at the "doom-and-gloom notion that AI is going to eviscerate demand" for human labor. He described that worry as a "little premature" as nobody knows for sure how AI will affect entry-level roles in the future, unemployment is yet to soar, and there's always inertia when it comes to businesses and consumers changing their behavior.

阅读媒体原文 ↗