我们是否正处于另一场世界大战的前夜？这是当下的核心问题。唯一可能的回答是：这取决于你如何定义“世界大战”。用“第三次世界大战”来形容即将到来的事态——或可能已经到来的事态——意味着它将是我们熟知的那两次历史事件的又一次重演。
Are we in the run up to another world war? That is the question of the moment. The only possible answer is: it depends on what you mean by “world war.”To describe whatever it is that is coming – or may already be here – as a third world war would suggest that it is another rendition of the two previous historic events with which we are familiar.
我认为我们可以有把握地说，情况并非如此。首先，显而易见的理由是：当今主导性全球大国之间若爆发全面大战，将不可能有赢家。这必然会涉及终结一切社会秩序、乃至终结地球上所有人类生命的武器。仅凭这一点，这便是不可想象的。甚至连一个精神错乱般妄想的国家领导人也无法促成这一点，因为他（或她）会被以一切必要手段阻止。
I think we can safely say that it isn’t that. First, there is the obvious reason: that a fully fledged conflagration between the dominant global powers now could have no winner. It would inevitably involve weapons that would put an end to every form of social order, if not to all human life on the planet. For that reason alone, it is inconceivable. Not even a psychotically delusional national leader could bring it about because he (or she) would be stopped by whatever means necessary.
然而，或许这一整个前提本身就是错误的。正如我们所知，提供范本的那两次大战实为同一场战争的两个篇章，它们——或说它——或许可被视为20世纪独有的现象。也就是说，它并非未来不可避免的范例，而是帝国时代以一种极其恐怖的方式终结，当时帝国列强最终耗尽了资源与合法性。
Then again, perhaps this whole premise is misconceived. The two great wars which provide the model were, as we know, really two chapters of the same war and they – or it – might be seen as a uniquely 20th century phenomenon. That is, not an inevitable example for the future but a peculiarly horrific ending of the age of empire in which imperial powers finally exhausted their resources and their legitimacy.
但“世界大战”如今可能意味着截然不同的东西：由病态驱动的霸权之间，为争夺统治地位与财富而进行的无休止斗争。唯一的胜利将以相对的消耗程度和经济损失来衡量。如果这就是定义，那么我们几乎可以肯定正处于一场世界大战的阵痛之中。
But “world war” could mean something very different now: an endless struggle for dominance and wealth between competing pathologically driven hegemonies. The only victory would be measured by relative degrees of attrition and economic damage. If that is the definition, then we are almost certainly in the throes of a world war at this moment.
但这场漫长、无情、令人精疲力竭的对抗，是病态自负的国家领导人之间的较量，属于现代世界的一部分，它需要此前从未需要过的辩护形式。大众民主的兴起，使得即使是最傲慢、最妄自尊大的独裁者，也无法凭借无耻的个人任性或宏大的幻想行事。
But this long, pitiless, exhausting confrontation between maniacally egotistical national leaders is part of the modern world which requires forms of apologia that have not been needed before. The rise of mass democracy has made it impossible for even the most arrogant, deluded autocrat to act on shameless personal whim or grandiose fantasy.
必须至少做出姿态，表明这种好战行为符合全体民众的利益。彼得大帝的精神遗产被拿来作依据，以此为俄罗斯人民收回乌克兰这一世袭领土、并接受现任领导人作为其领土权利捍卫者提供理由。美国的自豪感体现在总统个人身上，这与宪法原则截然背离：冒犯他或无视他的意愿，就是侮辱美国人民。
At least a show must be made of this belligerence being in the interest of the whole population. The spiritual legacy of Peter the Great is brought into play as justification for the Russian people to restore their hereditary possession of Ukraine and to accept their present leader as the defender of their territorial rights. The pride of the United States is embodied, in absolute contradiction to the principles of the Constitution, in the person of the president himself: to offend him or disregard his wishes is to insult the American people.
无论这些说辞的逻辑多么牵强或明显不合法，重要的是要注意到，它们被认为是必要的。对于战争时期的领导人而言，仅凭己意行事而不声称是在为本国普通民众行动，已不再足够。就20世纪战争中提供此类理由的情况而言，它们通常以种族术语措辞。
However tortuous or clearly illegitimate the logic of these accounts may be, it is important to note that they are believed to be necessary. It is no longer sufficient for a leader at war to do as he likes without claiming that he is acting for the ordinary people of his nation. To the extent that such justifications were offered in the 20th century wars, they were generally couched in racial terms.
战争是为了确立“优等种族”保持血统纯正的权利，并恢复所有属于该种族之人的与生俱来的权利。日本天皇实际上被视为神。他的神圣使命是让他的子民通过战斗取得胜利。
Wars were fought to establish the right of a “master race” to preserve the purity of its blood line and to restore the birthright of all those who belonged to it. The Japanese emperor was literally considered to be a god. His divine mission was to enable his people to triumph through combat.
这类论调的版本至今仍存：普京主张吞并克里米亚的理由——那里大部分人口讲俄语——与希特勒为入侵捷克斯洛伐克辩护的理由有着惊人的相似性，后者称苏台德地区主要由德裔居住。团结共同血统和族裔的人民——显然在牵强附会的情况下——至今仍可被呈现为神圣使命。但这与时代精神严重背离，甚至可能是致命的。
There are still versions of this kind of argument: Putin’s case for annexing Crimea – that much of its population were Russian speakers – was uncannily similar to Hitler’s defence of the invasion of Czechoslovakia, whose Sudetenland region was largely populated by ethnic Germans. Uniting the people of common blood and ethnicity was – and apparently still can be, at a fantastical stretch – presented as a sacred calling. But it is profoundly, and probably fatally, out of touch with the spirit of the age.
如今，军事冒险必须被包装为通往大众繁荣与自由的务实路径。而这正是许多当代版本正在瓦解的地方。唐纳德·特朗普无法假装他对伊朗的战争或对俄罗斯的绥靖政策正在造福美国民众，而普京将越来越难以说服俄罗斯民众，他们正在承受的巨大生命损失是为了他们自己的利益。
Now military ventures must be sold as a pragmatic route to mass prosperity and liberty. Which is where so many of the contemporary versions are coming apart. Donald Trump cannot pretend that either his war in Iran or his appeasement of Russia are benefiting his own people, and Putin will find it harder and harder to persuade his population that the massive loss of lives they are enduring is for their own good.
对于那些已深信促进自身福祉是政府首要目标、且已看清如何罢免持不同理念领导人的具体步骤的民众而言，长期战争的牺牲与风险不会被无限期容忍。发达国家的民众如今在政治上对自身作为衡量政府成败的道德标尺这一地位充满自信。至关重要的是，他们拥有的经济实力远超早期几代人。
The sacrifices and risks of prolonged war will not be tolerated indefinitely by peoples who have come to believe that the promotion of their well-being is the primary objective of government, and who have seen the precise steps that must be taken for removing leaders who believe otherwise. The populations of advanced countries are now politically confident of their own significance as a moral measure of a government’s success. And crucially, they have a great deal more economic power than earlier generations.
自由市场经济学与左翼神话相反，使财富的分配比人类历史上任何时候都更加均匀。普通民众现在以前所未有的程度，在国家投资的未来、货币的稳定以及机会的增长中拥有利益攸关的份额。随之而来的是权力，以及行使这种权力的自信。
Free market economics has, contrary to Left-wing mythology, distributed wealth much more evenly than at any time in human history. Ordinary people now have a stake in the future of their nation’s investments, the stability of its currency and the growth of its opportunities to an unprecedented degree. With that stake comes power and the confidence to exercise it.
正如特朗普政府正在发现的那样，现在有大比例的选民不愿容忍生活成本的过度上涨，以便让一个自恋的领导人沉溺于他的幻想之中。
As the Trump administration is discovering, there is now a huge proportion of the electorate who are not prepared to tolerate an exorbitant increase in their cost of living so that a narcissistic leader can indulge his fantasies.
弗拉基米尔·普京将会发现——或许比我们预期的更早——有许多俄罗斯人不会拥抱他关于“大俄罗斯”的中世纪梦想，如果这意味着要牺牲他们新获得的生活水准。
Vladimir Putin will find – perhaps sooner than we expected – that there are a great many Russians who will not embrace his medieval dream of a Greater Russia if it means sacrificing their newly acquired standard of living.
即便在中国，也将面临某种清算。这个名义上“共产主义”的国家创造了巨额私人财富——实际上形成了一个新的资产阶级。当人们变得富有时，通常希望能自由地做出自己的人生选择，并对以他们名义进行的国家行为拥有发言权。
Even in China, there will be some sort of reckoning. This supposedly “communist” country has created serious private wealth – a new bourgeoisie, in fact. And when people get rich, they generally want to be free to make their own life choices and have a say in what their country does in their name.
经济和政治个人主义的蔓延，使得世界大战——即便是那种缓慢燃烧的类型——变得越来越站不住脚。其背后的动机现在过于明显地是自私自利、自我中心的领导层的产物。民主眼下或许显得摇摇欲坠，尤其是在西欧，但其最重要的信条——政府是“为人民”而存在——是不可磨灭的。
The spread of economic and political individualism is making world wars – even the slow-burning variety – less and less tenable. The motivations behind them are now too obviously a function of self-serving, egotistical leadership. Democracy may look shaky at the moment, particularly in Western Europe, but its most important dictum – that government exists “for the people” – is indelible.