美联储以及欧元区和日本的央行可能会在接下来的一周内保持利率不变，选择暂时观望，等待进一步加息的合适时机。
The Federal Reserve and its peers in the euro zone and Japan will probably keep interest rates steady in the coming week, opting to bide their time before potential further hikes.
作者：卡塔琳娜·萨拉伊瓦（Catarina Saraiva）和克雷格·斯特林（Craig Stirling）从周三开始的为期三天的决策会议将在华盛顿举行，预计各国央行将采取鹰派立场，但在制定政策时会考虑到多种通胀风险——这些风险包括飙升的能源价格和人工智能产业的快速发展。
By Catarina Saraiva and Craig Stirling Three days of decisions starting on Wednesday in Washington are likely to affirm a hawkish stance balanced by a measured pace as policymakers confront inflation risks ranging from surging energy prices to the artificial intelligence boom.
美联储在2023年9月首次加息，并暗示今年可能还会再次加息。尽管自那时以来美国的通胀数据持续走高，但官员们似乎并不急于再次加息。经济学家和投资者预计，美联储会在2026年12月的最后一次会议上做出加息决定。
The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023 and signaled another increase was likely this year. While US inflation data has come in hot since then, officials seem in no rush to deliver another hike. Instead, economists and investors expect a move at the final meeting of 2026, in December.
美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在会上一直避免对未来政策走向发表明确表态。他在会后的新闻发布会上可能不会提供太多关于12月加息情况的细节，也不希望改变市场目前对加息的预期。
Chairman Kevin Warsh, who’s eschewed guidance on future moves, will face a tricky test at his post-meeting press conference. He probably won’t offer much insight about December, but may also not want to sway market bets away from the current expectation for a hike.
关注美联储动向的投资者可能需要等到会议结束后，才能了解其他美国央行官员对政策走向的看法。
Fed watchers may need to wait until after the meeting to hear what other US central bankers say about the prospects for policy.
彭博经济社（Bloomberg Economics）的观点：“我们认为美联储在年底前都不会采取进一步行动。较高的借贷成本正在逐渐影响美国经济；此外，中期选举前后可能出现与人工智能相关的市场调整，这可能会突然加剧金融市场的紧张局势。
What Bloomberg Economics Says:“We still see the Fed on hold through year-end. Higher borrowing costs are working their way through the economy, and there’s a risk that an AI-related market correction around the midterm elections could tighten financial conditions abruptly.”—Anna Wong.
欧洲中央银行（European Central Bank）的动向：欧洲中央银行可能在周四就12月的加息问题发表自己的立场，不过这一决策可能会受到法国债券市场问题的影响。次日，日本央行可能会维持现有利率不变，同时为年底可能的加息行动保留可能性。
For full analysis, click here The European Central Bank on Thursday could offer its own signals on a hike in December, in a decision overshadowed by France’s bond-market troubles. The following day, the Bank of Japan will probably keep its rate steady while holding the door open to a move at the end of the year.
与七国集团（G7）央行维持利率不变的预期不同，其他央行很可能会采取行动。
In contrast to the no-change expectations from those big-three Group of Seven decisions, other central banks may well deliver action.
大多数预测者预计新西兰将在周三加息，而多位经济学家认为加拿大央行也将在同一天实施三年来的首次加息。
Most forecasters anticipate a hike from New Zealand on Wednesday, while several economists see the first such move in three years materializing at the Bank of Canada on the same day.
此外，美国和欧元区增长数据、英国预算案，以及从哥伦比亚到泰国的利率决议都将成为看点。
Elsewhere, US and euro-zone growth data, the UK budget, and rate decisions from Colombia to Thailand will be among the highlights.
点击此处查看过去一周发生的事情，以下是我们对未来全球经济大事的梳理。
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.
美国和加拿大 在央行决议出炉一天后，美国政府将发布第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）初值以及美联储最青睐的通胀指标。
US and Canada A day after the central bank decision, the US government offers its initial estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product as well as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
得益于强劲的企业投资和韧性十足的消费者支出，经济增长在7至9月期间很可能加速。
Economic growth likely accelerated during the July-September period, thanks to robust business investment and resilient consumer spending.
亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型预测该季度年化增长率为3.5%，这将是一年来的最强表现。周四发布的政府GDP报告还可能显示，一项更窄的基础需求指标——私人国内购买者最终销售额——录得五年来最强劲的连续两个季度增长。
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 3.5% annualized growth rate for the quarter, which would be the strongest in a year. The government’s GDP report on Thursday may also show a narrower gauge of underlying demand — final sales to private domestic purchasers — registered the strongest back-to-back quarters of growth in five years.
该指标剔除了净出口和存货等往往波动较大的数据，以及政府支出。虽然GDP报告也包含个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数的季度读数——这是美联储首选的通胀数据，但同期发布的月度数据预计将显示9月物价涨幅加快。
That measure excludes often-volatile data on net exports and inventories, as well as government spending. While the GDP report also includes a quarterly read on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s inflation figure of choice, monthly figures released at the same time are projected to show price growth quickened in September.
展望北方，加拿大8月GDP可能维持平稳，环比增长0.2%，周五加拿大统计局将提供9月的闪估值。
Looking north, Canadian GDP likely remained flat in August with a 0.2% expansion, and on Friday, Statistics Canada will offer a flash estimate for September.
亚洲央行面临通胀抗争决心的又一次考验，全球债券抛售、发达市场利率上行前景、高位油价以及创纪录的强厄尔尼诺现象均有可能导致金融条件保持紧缩。
Asia’s central banks face another test of their inflation-fighting resolve as the global bond selloff, prospects for higher developed-market interest rates, elevated oil prices and a record-strength El Niño threaten to keep financial conditions tight.
除了新西兰储备银行和日本央行的决定外，泰国央行周三的结果（经济学家预测维持不变）也是另一大看点。
Aside from the decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and BOJ, the Bank of Thailand’s outcome on Wednesday, forecast by economists at no change, is another highlight.
对美联储再次加息的押注以及近期美国国债的抛售，已将美国与新兴亚洲债务之间的收益率差距推向极端，增加了资本外流和货币承压的风险。
Bets on another Fed hike and the recent Treasury rout have pushed yield gaps between US and emerging Asian debt toward extremes, increasing the risk of capital outflows and currency pressure.
因此，通胀数据将备受关注。澳大利亚将于周三公布季度和月度CPI，其中包括澳洲联储密切关注的修正平均值指标。
Inflation data will therefore command particular attention. Australia reports quarterly and monthly CPI on Wednesday, including the RBA’s closely watched trimmed-mean measure.
东京通胀数据将于周五公布，距离日本央行决定仅数小时。价格风险仍倾向上行：受中东供应担忧影响，过去一周油价维持在每桶约100美元左右，而厄尔尼诺现象进一步加剧，已扰乱亚洲各地天气。
Tokyo inflation follows on Friday, hours before the BOJ decision. Price risks remain tilted upward: oil stayed at about $100 a barrel in the past week amid Middle East supply concerns, while El Niño has intensified further and is already disrupting weather across Asia.
增长信号将完善本周图景。韩国将于周二公布第三季度GDP，而中国官方制造业、非制造业和综合PMI将于周六出炉。
Growth signals will round out the week. South Korea reports third-quarter GDP Tuesday, while China’s official manufacturing, non-manufacturing and composite PMIs arrive on Saturday.
这些数据将显示亚洲工厂和消费者对昂贵能源、更高借贷成本和全球金融条件收紧这一组合的吸收情况。
Those readings will indicate how well Asia’s factories and consumers are absorbing the combination of expensive energy, higher borrowing costs, and tightening global financial conditions.
英国首相安迪·伯纳姆上任后的首份预算案将于周三出台，正值对该国公共财政的审视日益加剧之际。
The first UK budget under Prime Minister Andy Burnham will arrive on Wednesday, at a time when scrutiny of the country’s public finances is intensifying.
财政大臣约翰·希利的平衡术在于：既要在能源危机中支持消费者，又要让投资者对财政纪律感到放心。在欧元区，多项数据将阐释欧洲央行决策的经济背景。
Chancellor John Healey’s balancing act will be to reconcile the need to support consumers through the energy crisis while reassuring investors on fiscal discipline. In the euro zone, multiple data points will illustrate the economic backdrop to the ECB decision.
德国周一的伊福商业景气指数可能在柏林政治紧张局势之际提供情绪洞察。法国消费者信心指数将于次日公布，同样可能受政治僵局影响。
Germany’s Ifo index of business confidence on Monday may offer insight on sentiment at a time of political tensions in Berlin. French consumer confidence is due the following day, again with the possibility of an impact from political gridlock.
欧元区第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）首值将于周五公布，经济学家预计增速将放缓至0.2%。该地区四大经济体的通胀数据将于同一天发布。
The first look at third-quarter GDP in the euro zone is scheduled for Friday, with slowing expansion of 0.2% anticipated by economists. Inflation data from the region’s four biggest economists come the same day.
在更远的地方，南非统计局将于周四发布重新设定基期和基准的GDP估算值，基期年份由2015年改为2022年。
Further afield, South Africa’s statistics agency will release rebased and benchmarked GDP estimates on Thursday, with the reference year changed to 2022 from 2015.
赞比亚财政部长西通贝科·穆索科特韦将于周五公布2027年预算。投资者将关注这个铜资源丰富的国家将如何缓解可能发生的严重干旱的影响，同时该国正等待国际货币基金组织（IMF）项目的最终批准。除欧洲央行（ECB）外，日程上还有多项货币政策决定：周三，纳米比亚政策制定者可能将利率上调25个基点至7%，因为通胀持续飙升。
Zambian Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane will deliver his 2027 budget on Friday. Investors will look for details on how the copper-rich nation will mitigate the impact of a potentially severe drought as it awaits final approval for an International Monetary Fund program. Aside from the ECB, a number of monetary decisions are on the calendar: On Wednesday, Namibian policymakers will probably increase their rate by 25 basis points to 7% as inflation continues to surge.
乌克兰央行将于周四宣布利率决定，此时经济因俄罗斯对基础设施和物流的袭击而放缓。
Ukraine’s central bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday at a time when the economy is slowing after Russian attacks on infrastructure and logistics.
同一天，埃及当局预计将维持借贷成本不变。经济学家指出，尽管城市总体通胀率上月放缓至13.9%，但月度涨幅加快，且埃镑疲软也支持维持谨慎立场的理由。
The same day, Egyptian authorities are expected to keep borrowing costs on hold. Urban headline inflation eased to 13.9% last month, though monthly gains accelerated and the weakness of the pound also supports the case for caution, according to economists.
拉丁美洲方面，巴西最迟周一前应将一场有争议、扣人心弦的总统大选抛在身后。当选总统在收到地区和全球盟友的祝贺之余，在上任头24小时内也将面对一些令人清醒的经济数据。
Latin America Brazil by Monday should have a contentious nail-biter of a presidential election in the rear-view mirror. Along with congratulations from regional and global allies, the president-elect can expect some sobering economic data in the first 24 hours.
巴西9月国际收支报告和联邦债务数据将凸显财政调整的迫切必要性。话虽如此，数据中的一个积极因素很可能再次是，外国直接投资和净证券投资流入继续为经常账户缺口提供资金。
Brazil’s September balance of payments report and federal debt data should underscore the dire need for fiscal adjustments. That said, a positive from the figures will again likely be that foreign direct investment and net portfolio flows continue to fund the current account gap.
智利方面，周二央行调查的交易员和经济学家预计将连续第七次维持利率在 4.5% 不变，因为通胀率高于 3% 的目标中值和 4% 的目标上限。
In Chile on Tuesday, traders and economists surveyed by the central bank look for a seventh straight hold at 4.5% as inflation runs above both the 3% mid-point and 4% ceiling of the target range.
央行对年底 GDP 增长 0.25% 至 0.75% 的预估或许支持降息，但其对 2026 年通胀率 4.3% 的预估很可能使任何关于降息的讨论都很短暂。
The bank’s year-end GDP estimate of 0.25% to 0.75% might argue for easing, but its 4.3% estimate for 2026 inflation likely makes any conversation on that front a short one.
货币政策将是哥伦比亚的焦点事件。央行再次面临不断攀升的消费者物价 —— 6.29% 的通胀率在该地区主要经济体中明显最高 —— 以及通胀预期。
Monetary policy will be the main event in Colombia. The central bank again confronts climbing consumer prices — at 6.29%, Colombia’s is easily the highest among the region’s big economies — and inflation expectations.
哥伦比亚央行调查的分析师预计，意见分歧的董事会将倾向于周五连续第二次加息 25 个基点，将关键利率推高至 12.5%。上个月，四名决策者投票支持加息 25 个基点，两名支持维持不变，一名支持加息 50 个基点。
Analysts surveyed by BanRep expect a divided board to plump for a second straight quarter-point hike on Friday, pushing the key rate to 12.5%. Last month, four policymakers voted for the 25 basis-point increase, two for a hold, and one for a half-point move up.
墨西哥将于同一天发布第三季度经济产出速报，预计将凸显拉美第二大经济体的韧性，数据料显示上半年强劲反弹的势头得以延续。
Mexico’s flash third-quarter output report on the same day will likely highlight the resilience of Latin America’s second-biggest economy, with the data expected to show some momentum sustained from the strong rebound that closed out the first half.
分析师预计，截至 9 月的三个月经济增速将温和放缓，随后在年底和 2027 年初可能回升。
Analysts see modest slowing in the three months through September with a pick-up likely into year-end and in early 2027.