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纽约时报

如果特朗普不喜欢中期选举结果会怎样?What Happens if Trump Doesn’t Like the Midterm Results?

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如果特朗普不喜欢中期选举结果会发生什么?希望、恐惧以及通往选举日的最后冲刺阶段。

What Happens if Trump Doesn’t Like the Midterm Results? Hope, dread and the final stretch to Election Day.

距离选举日还有不到两周的时间。在美国民众走向中期选举投票站前的最后一次对话中,全国政治撰稿人米歇尔·科特尔与专栏作家贾梅尔·布伊和大卫·弗伦奇一同进行了局势盘点。贾梅尔对可能出现的“蓝色浪潮”持谨慎乐观的态度,而大卫则对如果特朗普不喜欢选举结果可能会发生的情况感到担忧。

We’re less than two weeks out from Election Day. In their last conversation before Americans head to the midterm polls, the national politics writer Michelle Cottle joins the columnists Jamelle Bouie and David French to take stock. While Jamelle makes the case for cautious optimism about a possible blue wave, David worries about what could happen if Trump doesn’t like the results.

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Below is a transcript of an episode of “The Opinions.”We recommend listening to it in its original form for the full effect. You can do so using the player above or on the NYTimes app, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube, iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts. The transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

米歇尔·科特尔:我是米歇尔·科特尔。我为《纽约时报》观点版报道全国政治,本周我和我才华横溢的同事、专栏作家贾梅尔·布伊和大卫·弗伦奇在这里。先生们,情况怎么样?贾梅尔·布伊:一切都好。大卫·弗伦奇:进展不错,米歇尔。

Michelle Cottle: I’m Michelle Cottle. I cover national politics for New York Times Opinion, and I am here this week with my brilliant colleagues, columnists Jamelle Bouie and David French. Gentlemen, how goes it? Jamelle Bouie: It goes well. David French: Doing well, Michelle.

科特尔:好的。距离选举日不到两 weeks了。这是选民的意愿明朗化之前的最后一期节目,我对你们有许多迫切的问题,其中大部分都属于以下范畴:这苍天之下到底会发生什么?

Cottle: All right. We are less than two weeks out from Election Day. This is our last episode before the will of the voters becomes clear, and I have so many pressing questions for you, most of which fall into the category of: What in God’s green earth is going to happen?

所以,我知道,我知道,我们无法真正预知,但从我们看到和听到的一切来看,我们认为事情将如何发展?也许这只是我从2020年留下的创伤后应激障碍在说话,但如果事情不如他的意,某位总统可能会如何试图破坏选举结果?让我们深入探讨一下。

So I know, I know, we can’t really know, but from everything we’re seeing and hearing, how do we think this is going to play out? And maybe this is just my PTSD from 2020 talking, but how might a certain president try to undermine the results if things don’t go his way? So let’s dive in.

最近几周,民主党人中弥漫着很多乐观情绪。我们最新的新闻编辑室民调显示,民主党人在全国范围内领先11个百分点。我们是在期待一汪蓝水坑、一股蓝色浪潮,还是更准确地说,是被称为“红色暗流”的现象?大卫,你先说。

There has been a lot of optimism in the air for the Democrats in recent weeks. Our latest newsroom poll has Democrats leading nationally by 11 percentage points. Are we expecting a blue puddle, a blue wave or, maybe more accurately, what has been termed a “red undertow”? David, you go first.

弗伦奇:你知道的,米歇尔,这真的很有趣。所有实证数据都表明,这可能是一场蓝色浪潮,这可能是一场蓝色海啸。你开始看到一些迹象,比如南卡罗来纳州、密西西比州的民调结果都在误差范围内,而且所有数据都越来越带有蓝色的倾向——科特:带点蓝色。

French: You know, it’s really interesting, Michelle. Everything empirical is saying that this could be a blue wave, this could be a blue tsunami. You’re starting to see things, like polling in South Carolina, in Mississippi, within the margin of error, and it’s becoming so blue-ish in all of the data ——Cottle: Blue-ish.

弗伦奇:以至于我认识的很多聪明人都在想:等一下,我们能相信这些数据吗?因为这感觉人们以前经历过。他们经历过乐观的民调浪潮。我们还经历了长年累月势均力敌的政治博弈,在普选中出现类似民主党领先11个百分点的情况,感觉并不真实,如果你想——科特:那不是真实存在的。

French: That a lot of smart people I know are like: Wait a minute, can we trust this data? Because it feels like people have been through this before. They have been through optimistic polling waves. We’ve also been through years and years and years of very closely divided politics, where it doesn’t feel like something like Democrats +11 in a popular vote, if you’re going to like ——Cottle: That’s not a real thing.

弗伦奇:把整个众议院拿来预测,民主党真的会领先11个百分点吗?对此我高度怀疑。高度怀疑。但与此同时,也没有什么真正的实证数据能用来削弱这种乐观情绪。

French: Take the whole House and put it at, would it actually end up Democrats +11? Highly doubt that. Highly doubt it. But at the same time, there’s nothing really empirical to point at to diminish the optimism.

不过,我一直在回想我最近在得克萨斯州时感受到的氛围。当我与民主党人交谈时,我会将其称为“谨慎、戒备、敢于梦想,但又不敢真正做梦”,如果这讲得通的话。我认为这实际上是一种相当健康的态度。科特:贾梅尔?

I keep going back, though, to the sense I felt when I was in Texas recently. When I was talking to Democrats, I would call it “cautious, guarded, daring to dream, but not really dreaming,” if that makes sense. Which I think is actually a pretty healthy attitude to take. Cottle: Jamelle?

布伊:是的,如果人们在考虑这个问题,我会建议他们用先前的选举来对其进行压力测试,当你在思考,好吧,这可能会在哪些方面出现偏差?我认为这很有用,因为它迫使你不只看民调,还要看更广泛的国家状况。正因如此,我认为认真对待民调所反映的信息是值得的。

Bouie: Yeah, I would advise people, if they’re thinking about this, to just stress-test it against previous elections, when you’re thinking about, OK, how, how might this be off? And I think that’s useful, because it forces you not just to look at the polls, but at the larger national conditions. And that’s where I think it’s worth just taking seriously what the polls are saying.

因此,如果你回顾2018年,唐纳德·特朗普当时并没有这么不受欢迎。他真的没有。我记得当时他的支持率在百分之四十出头,对吧?所以在当前,他的平均受欢迎程度比2018年大约低了10个百分点。我真的认为有必要强调的是,他从未像现在这样如此不受欢迎。除了大流行初期之外,在特朗普执政下的经济状况实际上也从未像现在这样糟糕。

So if you look back at 2018, Donald Trump was not this unpopular. He just wasn’t. He was in, I believe, the low 40s, right? So at the moment, he is about 10 points on average less popular than he was in 2018. And I really think it’s important to stress that he’s never been this unpopular before. Economic conditions under Trump have actually never been this bad before, other than, again, the early days of the pandemic.

因此在很多方面,我们所处的局势实际上与特朗普以往参选时的局势截然不同——我们在民调中获得的结果也与此相符。这并不意味着对共和党人来说事情可能会比民调显示的好,但我确实认为,这是一个很好的理由,说明民调捕捉到了一些情况。至于这种“情况”的确切轮廓是什么,在所有选票清点完毕之前我们不会知道。但就全国情绪所处的位置以及看似具有竞争力的方面而言,这一切在我看来都相当准确。

And so in a lot of ways, we’re in a situation that is actually quite distinct from previous situations when Trump has been on the ballot — and the results we’re getting in terms of polling are consistent with that. It doesn’t mean that things might be better for Republicans than the polling suggests, but I do think that it’s a good reason to think this is capturing something. The exact contours of what that something is, we won’t know until all the ballots are counted. But as far as where the national mood is and what appears to be competitive, that all seems quite right to me.

科特尔:好的。好吧,这让我感觉好受了一些,因为我在很多这类事情上往往是个悲观主义者,而且我倾向于看看,比如缅因州,我不太确信苏珊·柯林斯是不是不会稳操胜券。所以如果我看看得克萨斯州,是的,那里的民调对詹姆斯·塔拉里科很利好,而且我不认为贝托在民调中曾领先过。弗伦奇:没有。布伊:没有。弗伦奇:从来没有那样过。

Cottle: OK. Well, this makes me feel a little better, because I tend to be a pessimist with a lot of these things, and I tend to look at, say, Maine, where I’m not so sure Susan Collins isn’t on track to pull this out. So if I look at Texas, where, yep, the polling looks good for James Talarico, and I don’t think Beto was ever ahead in the polls. French: No. Bouie: No. French: Never like that.

科特尔:人们总是拿它跟那个作比较。与此同时,我一直在做报道,并等待得克萨斯州变成蓝色。我记得大约在四分之一世纪前,我曾做过一篇关于黑人和棕色人种联盟将如何让该州变蓝的报道。

Cottle: People always compare it to that. At the same time, I’ve been reporting and waiting for Texas to turn blue. I remember doing a story about how the Black and brown coalition was going to turn it blue, I think, like a quarter century ago.

我倾向于选择那些让我最焦虑的州和地区,并对它们进行大量的琢磨。部分原因在于,我所担忧的更广泛的事情之一是,民主党人——甚至不是民选官员,而是许多选民、积极分子或类似观察人士——我担心他们把期待值游戏玩得很糟,他们太兴奋了,他们想在得克萨斯州获胜。

I tend to pick the states and areas that make me the most nervous and obsess a lot about those. In part because one of the just broader things that I’m worried about is that Democrats — not even the electeds, but like a lot of the voters or the activists or the kind of watchers — I worry are playing the expectations game badly, that they’re so excited, that they want to win in Texas.

他们想在其中一些红州获胜——比如阿拉斯加、类似那样的州;还有艾奥瓦州——他们的期望值如此之高,以至于除非他们在众议院彻底完胜共和党并保住参议院,否则我仍然担心他们会被宣布为表现不佳,这将给特朗普一个机会站出来说:“看?我们很好,我还可以继续胡作非为,”诸如此类。因此,大卫,除了你在得克萨斯州交谈过的人之外——就宏观而言——还有其他人担心期待值游戏被玩错了吗?

They want to win in some of these red states — in Alaska, that sort of thing; Iowa — that they’ve got expectations so high that, unless they just completely wipe out the Republicans in the House and claim the Senate, I still worry that they’re going to just be declared underperformers, which is going to give Trump an opportunity to stand up and say, “See? We’re fine, and I can just continue running amok,” and all of that. So aside from the people that you talked to in Texas, David — just like broadly — is anybody else worried about the expectation game being played wrong?

弗伦奇:当然,米歇尔。让我们花点时间把这放在宏观背景下来看。长期以来,我们一直认为民主党人可以在佐治亚州守住阵地。我们曾认为俄亥俄州可能存在变数。俄亥俄州是个摇摆不定的州。甚至艾奥瓦州,最近一段时间也多少有些摇摆。缅因州是一个相对蓝的州。所以这些是即使发生也不会让人惊掉下巴的州。

French: Absolutely, Michelle. Let’s put this in perspective for a second. We’ve long been thinking that the Democrats could hold in Georgia. We’ve thought that Ohio could possibly be in play. Ohio is a swing-ish state. Even Iowa, swing-ish somewhat recently. Maine, a relatively blue state. So these are states that nobody would just fall out of their chair in shock about.

但现在我们在谈论堪萨斯州。我们在谈论内布拉斯加州。我们在谈论南卡罗来纳州、密西西比州、得克萨斯州。因此我确实认为,如果共和党人守住了这些州——最后变成诸如“哈哈,我们险胜堪萨斯州”这样的话——这并不是你想象的那种炫耀。但我确实认为,期望值正在积聚到这样一种程度:如果民主党人没有赢得堪萨斯州,将会产生至少某种程度的失望和沮丧。

But now we’re talking about Kansas. We’re talking about Nebraska. We’re talking about South Carolina, Mississippi, Texas. And so I do think, if the Republicans hold those states — sort of ending up by going, “Ha, ha, we narrowly held Kansas” — it’s not the flex that you think that it is. But I do think that expectations are building to such a point that there would be at least some degree of disappointment and upset if Democrats don’t win Kansas.

我认为,如果民主党人没有在得克萨斯州获胜,再次出现这种情况,可能会带来一些真正的失望。

I think there might be some real disappointment, again, if Democrats don’t win in Texas.

就贾梅尔的观点而言——我认为贾梅尔提出了大量站得住脚的观点——关于这场竞选的基本面,它们足以让任何希望看到“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)时代结束的人感到更加乐观。我认为这些基本面是存在的。只是对我而言,随着一个又一个州、一场又一场竞选从“大概率倾向共和党”变为“小概率倾向共和党”再变为“胜负难料”,这种变化变得如此势不可挡,以至于你开始怀疑,这会不会是一场重组?

To Jamelle’s point — I think Jamelle makes a ton of valid points — about the fundamentals of this race, they are enough to make anyone who’s wanting to see the MAGA era end feel more optimistic. I think those fundamentals are there. It’s just, for me, it’s becoming sort of so overwhelming as state after state and race after race goes from likely R to lean R to tossup, that you start to wonder, could this be something realigning?

这会不会是一次我们在美国政治中许久未见的真正意义上的响亮胜利?而正是在这个时候,所有的怀疑警报都亮了起来。我们只能拭目以待。

Could this be something truly resounding that we haven’t seen for some time in American politics? And that’s when all of the skepticism lights start to come on. And we’re just going to have to wait and see.

布伊:如果亚当·汉密尔顿在堪萨斯州获胜,我会感到惊讶。那将是一种近乎疯狂的结果。如果达琳·格雷厄姆仅以一个百分点的优势获胜,那将是一种疯狂的结果。话虽如此,我想我对这一事态发展的震惊程度可能不如大卫那么大,部分原因是我刚才提到的那一点:实际的基本面、当前的国家状况是不同的。自2016年以来,过去那些势均力敌的选举都在某种相似的环境下运行:相对强劲的经济;在民意方面势均力敌的政党;由于没有任何改变政治辩论性质的新议题而显得不够流动的联盟。所有这些情况都变了,不是吗?

Bouie: I will be surprised if Adam Hamilton wins in Kansas. That’s kind of a crazy outcome. If Darline Graham only wins by one point, that’s a crazy outcome. But having said that, I guess I’m not as shocked by this development as David might be, in part because of the point I made earlier: The actual fundamentals, the national conditions right now, are different. The closely divided elections of the past since 2016 have all operated under a kind of similar set of circumstances: a relatively strong economy; relatively evenly matched, in terms of popular sentiment, political parties; coalitions that aren’t that fluid because there aren’t any new issues changing the nature of the political debates. And all that stuff has changed, right?

再者,总统非常不受欢迎,经济低迷,通货膨胀依然相对较高,挥之不去。燃料价格居高不下。桌面上出现了这些新问题——人工智能、数据中心——它们在某种程度上打乱了党派联盟。还有一个事实是,特朗普根本不在选票上。如果你把特朗普视为一个问题而不仅仅是一个人——过去10年左右美国政治的分裂性问题——他不在选票上,因此选民不必被迫在对特朗普在美国政治中所扮演角色的看法上做出选择,这本身或许让局势稍微敞开了一些。

Again, the president’s very unpopular, the economy is sluggish, inflation is still relatively high, still with us. Fuel prices are high. There are these new issues on the table — A.I., data centers — that are scrambling partisan coalitions somewhat. There is the fact that Trump simply isn’t on the ballot. And if you think of Trump as an issue and not just a person — the dividing issue of the past 10 years or so of American politics — him not being on the ballot, and thus voters aren’t being forced to choose about their view of Trump’s role in American politics, that itself maybe opens things up a bit.

“哦,现在我不是在为特朗普投票;我是在为柴油价格投票。现在我是在为我不喜欢数据中心这件事投票。”因此,美国政治水面之下正在发生所有这些事情,过去10年美国政治的分裂性质可能在某种程度上掩盖了这些事情,而现在,随着特朗普即将退场,它们正在某种程度上重新浮出水面。再次强调,这并不是说我认为会出现民主党大获全胜的局面,而是说当你看看像密西西比州这样显然具有竞争力的密西西比州时,该州高度的种族两极分化实际上意味着民主党拥有相当高的得票底线,对吧?科特:当然。

“Oh, now I’m not voting about Trump; I’m voting about diesel prices. Now I’m voting about the fact that I don’t like data centers.”So there are all these things happening below the surface of American politics that the divided nature of American politics over the last 10 years may have somewhat obscured, and now, as Trump is leaving the scene, they’re kind of bubbling up again. Again, that’s not to say that I think it’s going to be a big Democratic sweep, but that when you look at a place like Mississippi, which apparently is competitive, the high levels of racial polarization in that state actually mean that Democrats have a pretty high floor, right? Cottle: Sure.

布伊:他们通常能赢得45%或46%的选票。认为在执政党表现异常糟糕的时期,一定比例的白宫(原文如此)密西西比州白人可能会决定要么作壁上观要么改变投票,这种想法真的很疯狂吗?在这种环境下,该州变得具有竞争力真的很疯狂吗?我不这么认为。对于很多事情来说,就像边缘地带的微小变化就能产生这些巨大的影响,我某种程度上认为这就是我们正在看到的。

Bouie: They’re usually winning 45, 46 percent. Is it really that crazy to think that, in an unusually bad time for the incumbent party, some percentage of white Mississippians may decide either to sit it out or switch votes? And in that environment, is it really that crazy that the state becomes competitive? I don’t think so. For so much stuff, it’s like tiny changes on the margins can produce these big effects, and I kind of think that’s what we’re seeing.

科特尔:嗯,我的确觉得你刚才提到了一个有趣的点,那就是并不是说共和党人需要投票给民主党人;他们只需要呆在家里就行。你会听到这样的讨论:“哦,鉴于民主党的品牌形象,一个一向投票给共和党的人根本不可能出来投那一票。”但这是一场中期选举。中期选举历来关乎你能把谁动员到投票站去。我的确认为,从我们在初选中看到的情况来看,民主党占优的投票热情差距是巨大的,这总能在这类地方起到决定性作用。

Cottle: Well, I do think you touched on something interesting there, which is that it’s not that Republicans need to vote for Democrats; they just need to stay home. You hear these discussions about, “Oh, well, there’s no way with the Democratic brand that somebody who’s been voting Republican forever is going to come out and pull that lever.”But this is a midterm election. Midterm elections are always about who you can get to show up at the polls. I do think that from what we saw, certainly, during the primaries, the enthusiasm gap in Democrats’ favor is enormous, which could always make the difference in these sorts of places.

弗伦奇:这一点对杰梅尔的观点有利,说明你为什么应该看看其中一些民调并认为“好吧,它们在衡量一些真实的东西”。我不记得在以往的选举中,上一次你能把对具体议题的选民愤怒追溯到本届政府的具体行动是什么时候了。通常情况下,当你谈论通货膨胀率或就业创造之类的事情时,究竟是什么导致了所有的通胀,或者这些工作岗位是如何被创造出来的,政府与私营部门各占多少比例等等,都是有争议的。

French: And this is a point in Jamelle’s favor on why you should be looking at some of these polls and saying, “OK, they’re measuring something real.”I can’t remember the last time in an election where you could trace voter anger at specific issues to very specific actions by the administration. Normally, when you’re talking about things like inflation rates or job creation, it’s kind of debatable what’s causing all of the inflation or how are these jobs being created, how much is the government versus the private sector, etc. But here you’ve got: Why are gas prices high?

但在这里你却看到了:为什么油价居高不下?伊朗战争。为什么基础通胀再次悄然上升?为什么工资水平在落后?关税。

The Iran war. Why is background inflation creeping up again? Why are wages falling behind? Tariffs.

你可以看看这个政府采取的那些非常具体的行动,这也是我认为你用的那个词——“红色暗流”——非常贴切的原因之一。你可以逐项逐项地问:“一个聪明的政党在什么星球上会这么干?如果你真想赢选举,在什么星球上会这么干?”我很少见过一个政党像共和党对待2024年胜利那样,如此彻底、如此高效、如此全面地挥霍掉胜利果实。

You can look at very specific things that this administration has done, which is one of the reasons I think that that term you used — the red undertow — is very appropriate. You can go issue by issue by issue and say, “On what planet does a smart political party do this? On what planet do you do this if you’re actually trying to win elections?”And rarely have I seen a party squander a victory more thoroughly and more efficiently — and more comprehensively — than what the Republican Party has done to the 2024 victory.

2024年风向转变后,共和党和特朗普所作所为令人震惊。所以这印证了贾梅尔的观点:选民可以看到特朗普和特朗普政府做的那些非常具体的、让他们生活变得更糟的事,我认为这让他们更容易投反对票。

It is astounding what the Republican Party and what Trump has done after this vibe shift in 2024. And so that’s to Jamelle’s point: Voters can look at very specific things that Trump and the Trump administration have done that have made their lives worse, and I think it makes it easier to vote against them.

科特尔:是的,我认为你提了个重要观点,当你问“什么政党想成功会这么干”时,答案是:这根本不是个政党。这是一个从未在乎过自己政党的单个男人。唐纳德·特朗普对更广泛的共和党能否成功毫无兴趣。他只在乎人们怎么评价他,或者他想做什么。所以,共和党议员们显然对其中一些问题有很多不满。现在,如果他们真这么不满,早就该站出来采取行动了。但现状就是如此。

Cottle: Yeah, I think you make an important point there, when you’re like, what party would do this if they want to be successful? It’s not a party. It is one man who has never cared about his political party. Donald Trump has no interest in the success of the broader Republican Party. He is only interested in how people talk about him or what he wants to do. And so there has been, obviously, plenty of frustration among Republican lawmakers about some of these issues. Now, if they were really frustrated about it, they should have stood up and done something before now. But, here we are.

我们已经阐述了基本预期。现在让我们转向一种黑暗而诡异的可能性,即如果这一切真的发生——蓝色海啸、蓝色浪潮、管他什么蓝色——而某位总统不喜欢这个结果,会发生什么。他会试图干预吗,试图推翻它吗?我的意思是,这已经不是第一次了。本周早些时候,司法部指控28人违反联邦选举法。在声称加利福尼亚州可能有2万名非公民登记投票之后,我的意思是,你们对这一切以及似乎正在酝酿的种种努力感到担忧吗?

So we’ve laid out basic expectations. Let’s turn now to the kind of dark, weird possibility of what happens if all of this comes to pass — blue tsunami, blue wave, blue whatever — and a certain president doesn’t like the outcome. Does he try to meddle with it, to overturn it? I mean, it wouldn’t be the first time. Earlier this week, the Department of Justice charged 28 people with violating federal voting laws. And after claiming that there are likely 20,000 noncitizens registered to vote in California, I mean, are you guys worried about any of this, and the efforts that seem to be kind of percolating along?

布伊:所以我有两种看法:第一种是,所有这一切显然都非常糟糕,对吧?这似乎是政府在做它通常在做的事:滥用权力、骚扰无辜民众,诸如此类。关于有2万名非公民登记投票的说法——你知道的,加州对此外示异议,而且每次国土安全部或政府做出这种断言时,它很快就会不攻自破,所以没有理由相信它是真的。因此,所有这些都非常令人担忧,对吧?我认为人们完全可以预料到,政府会声称选举受到舞弊污染,等等,等等,等等。

Bouie: So I’m of two minds: The first is that all of this is obviously very bad, right? It seems to be the administration doing what it typically does: abusing its power, harassing innocent people, that sort of thing. The claim that there have been 20,000 noncitizens registered — you know, California disputes that, and every time D.H.S. or the administration has made this kind of assertion, it’s promptly fallen apart, so there’s no reason to believe that it’s true. So all of that is very worrisome, right? I think one should have every expectation that the administration is going to say that the elections were tainted by fraud, etc., etc., etc.

我的问题一直是:好吧,那么从实际角度来看,这有什么关系呢?因为从实际角度来看,并不是说白宫不能推翻选举。当我这么说的时候,人们会听到这样的话:“嗯,那是违法的。他不能这么做。”不,我是从非常字面的意义上说的。具体哪个人同具体哪个人交谈,才能使435场国会选举无效,使30场参议院选举无效,对吧?根本没有这回事。科特尔:根本没有这回事。

My question always is: OK, so what, practically speaking, does that matter? Because practically speaking, it’s not like the White House can’t overturn the election. When I say that, people are going to hear something like, “Well, that’s illegal. He can’t do it.”No, I mean that in the very literal sense. What specific person talks to what specific person to invalidate 435 congressional elections, to invalidate 30 Senate elections, right? That’s not a thing. Cottle: It’s just not a thing.

布伊:根本没这回事!而且万一民主党大胜,这反而会打消普通共和党人随波逐流的积极性,因为在某种程度上,他们会想,好吧,那还有什么意义呢?既然我们明知自己已经大败亏输,再去惹这些麻烦还有什么意义?所以我认为,这非常像是一个绝望的政府在用尽一切可能的方式进行反扑,企图恐吓民众,对吧?企图说服人们不要出门、不要投票,制造足够的恐惧和不确定性,让人觉得可能会发生真正灾难性的事情。

Bouie: It’s just not a thing! And in the event that there is a big Democratic win, that disincentivizes regular Republicans from going along with this stuff, because at a certain point, it’s like, well, what’s the point? What’s the point in causing all this grief if we know we’ve just got our butts handed to us? So I see this stuff very much as a desperate administration lashing out in whatever way it can to try to intimidate people, right? To try to convince people not to turn up, not to vote, to create enough fear and uncertainty to make people think that something truly catastrophic might happen.

但如果你理性地去想,他们在颠覆选举结果方面其实无能为力。而且他们能做的事情,也不是在没有阻力的情况下就能做到的,对吧?地方政府、各州政府以及民主党,都能够提起诉讼。这里面有很大的回旋余地,而政府能够采取行动的空间却相对较小。所以对我来说,这同时说明了两个问题。这既是个问题,也是件坏事,但它也并非什么世界末日。科特尔:大卫?

But when you think about it rationally, they don’t have much they can do in terms of subverting the outcome. And what they can do is not something they can do without opposition, right? Localities will, states will, the Democratic Party will, in terms of being able to file litigation. There’s all this room for pushback and relatively little room for action from the administration. So for me, it’s these two things at once. It’s a problem and it’s bad, but it’s also not, like, apocalyptic. Cottle: David?

弗伦奇:我的看法比贾梅尔稍微悲观一点,但不是在投票环节。我对投票、计票和认证环节进行了区分。我认为这太难了。干预实际的投票真的是、真的是难上加难。

French: I’m a little darker than Jamelle, not on the front end. I draw a distinction between the voting and counting and certifying. I think it’s just so hard. It is really, truly so hard to mess with the actual voting.

现在,我更担心的是其中一些州,如果你赢了——如果民主党人在俄亥俄州以七、八个百分点获胜,或者乔·奥索夫在佐治亚州以八、九个百分点获胜——我并不担心这个。但塔拉里科在得克萨斯州仅领先肯·帕克斯顿0.6个百分点呢?那我就要说,到那个时候,一切皆有可能了。或者汉密尔顿在堪萨斯州领先1个百分点或更少。

Now, where I’m more concerned is that some of these states, if you win — if the Democrats win Ohio by seven or eight, or Jon Ossoff wins Georgia by eight or nine — I’m not worried about that. But what about Talarico up 0.6 percent on Ken Paxton in Texas? That’s when I’m saying all bets are off at that point. Or you have Hamilton 1 percent or less up in Kansas.

而在这种情况下,你们拥有的是非常红州的选举官员。并且如果存在争议——例如众议院的争议——关于谁能在众议院就座是由众议院决定的。这是在一些其实相当草率且没有真正得到很好界定的程序下进行的事情。

And in those circumstances, you’ve got the very red-state election officials. And if there is a contest — the contest in the House, for example — as to who sits in the House is settled by the House. And this is something under procedures that are really pretty cursory and not really fully defined very well.

然后在那个时候,是的,贾梅尔是对的:有很多机会对此提出异议并进行抗争。但正如我们在1月6日以及特朗普在2020年和2021年所学到的那样,他们甚至不需要一个可信的法律论据。他们能让人因为愚蠢的事情而冲击国会大厦,比如,简直是疯狂。这就是问题所在:2020年的选举阴谋论不仅是错的;它们既愚蠢又错误。它们是极其愚蠢和错误的,而他在那种情况下让人去冲击国会大厦。所以这就是我更担心的——在某些原本非常红却突然具有竞争力的州里,后端的认证挑战。

And then at that point, yeah, Jamelle’s right: There’s lots of opportunities to contest this and to fight this. But as we learned with Jan. 6, and Trump in 2020 and 2021, they don’t even need a credible legal argument. They can get people storming the Capitol over stupidity, like, just lunacy. That’s the thing: The 2020 election conspiracy theories weren’t just wrong; they were stupid and wrong. They were incandescently stupid and wrong, and he got people storming the Capitol in that circumstance. And so that’s where I’m a little bit more worried — the back-end certification challenge in maybe some of these very red states that are suddenly competitive.

科特尔:是的,我往往对选举结构感到更加担忧,而且我具体担忧的是那些非常基层的官员,比如选区级的那种岗位。我只记得,在1月6日的混乱事件之后,特朗普阵营发生了一种转变,他们基本上是在为接管做好场地准备。史蒂夫·班农发起了这个号召,即选区战略,他呼吁MAGA(让美国再次伟大)的人士去参选、被任命或当志愿者,以接管所有这些低级别职位,这样如果下次再出现问题,做出这些决断的就会是特朗普的忠实信徒:这看起来像欺诈吗?我们应该重新计票吗?我们应该做这个、那个还是别的什么?

Cottle: Yeah, I tend to be more nervous about the structure, and I tend to be specifically nervous about the very low-down officials, like precinct-level type stuff. I just remember, after the Jan. 6 hoo-ha, there was this shift in the Trump world where they were basically readying the playing field to take over. Steve Bannon did this call-out, the precinct strategy, where he called for MAGA people to go in and get elected, or get appointed or volunteer, to take over all these low-level offices, so if there was a question next time, it would be Trump loyalists who would be making the calls about: Did this look like fraud? Should we have this recount? Should we do this, that, or the other?

不仅如此,当然,你还有特朗普在做他一直都在做的事情,那就是播下不信任的种子,破坏公众对任何这一切能够运转的信心。因此,如果有什么事情被提交给这个委员会或需要重新计票,人们就会有一种先入为主的想法,即:“哦,好吧,那一定是有什么问题。”所以我必须说,这确实让我感到担忧。另一方面,我认为不同之处在于特朗普并未参选。

And then on top of that, of course, you have Trump doing what he always does, which is just to sow distrust and undermine the public’s confidence that any of this works. So that if something gets thrown to this board or that recount, people are kind of primed to think, “Oh, well, there must be something wrong.”So I have to say, that does make me nervous. On the other hand, I do think that the difference is Trump’s not on the ballot.

从某种程度上说,如果事情不如他所愿,也许他只是想一摊双手说:“瞧,当我不在的时候,你们这群人全都是彻底的失败者。这正好证明我才是唯一重要的事情,我接下来两年将继续前进,与民主党人斗争到底,并享受我作为无可争议的唯一重要的共和党人的地位。”所以,从某种程度上讲,他那种满不在乎的态度,反倒让我觉得稍微好受了一些,我猜吧。

And on some level, if things don’t go his way, maybe he just wants to throw up his hands and say, “See, you guys are total losers when I’m not there. This just proves that I am the only thing that matters, and I’m just going to go forward for the next two years and fight it out with Democrats, and enjoy my status as the undisputed only Republican that matters.”So his lack of give-a-crap-ness, on some level, makes me feel a little better, I guess.

布伊:我也想说,我认为把这一切都看作一个更大的动态系统的一部分很重要,对吧?所以特朗普声称欺诈当然很重要,但这也必须结合一个事实来权衡,即特朗普非常不受欢迎。所以他会声称欺诈,有多少比例的人听到后会说:“是啊,他当然会这么说,”然后就继续过日子,对吧?

Bouie: I would say as well that I think it’s just important to think of all this stuff as part of a larger dynamic system, right? So Trump claiming fraud is significant, certainly, but it also has to be weighed against the fact that Trump is very unpopular. So he’ll claim fraud, and what percentage of people will hear that and be like, “Yeah, well, of course he’s going to say that,” and they just move on, right?

公众情绪根本不在他这边的程度——如果民主党大获全胜,将会有确凿证据证明这一点的程度——确实会削弱特朗普及其盟友搞花招的实际能力。他们或许仍具备操作层面的能力,但你也需要某种感觉,即这种情绪会站在你这边。而在一场共和党投票率崩盘——这极有可能发生——的选举中,就会表明这种情绪并不在他们这边。所以他们可以搞些动作,但我认为反应会是“好吧,随便吧”,然后大家继续过日子。

The extent to which public sentiment is just not on his side — the extent to which, if it’s a big election victory for Democrats, there’ll be tangible evidence of that — really does, I think, diminish the actual capacity of Trump and his allies to do shenanigans. They may still have the mechanical ability to do it, but you also need some sense that this sentiment is going to be on your side. And an election where, let’s say, Republican turnout collapses — which is very possible — would suggest that it isn’t. So they can do stuff, but I think the response is going to be “OK, whatever,” and you move on.

弗伦奇:福克斯有7.87亿个理由不配合“窃选”理论了。而且自2020年以来我们确实看到了这一点。实际上你已经看到,在某些情况下,当有人上福克斯节目散布疯狂的选举阴谋论时,主持人会出来表示:“没有证据。所有法院都裁定——”等等。所以你确实看到了某种,姑且称之为质量控制、编辑标准正在逐步确立。所以我认为这绝对比2020年和2021年的环境要好,这确实让我有些乐观。但我说在前头——科特尔:说在前头。

French: Fox has about 787 million reasons to not go along with stolen election theories this time around. And we’ve actually seen this since 2020. You’ve actually seen, in certain circumstances, when someone goes on Fox and spouts some crazy election conspiracy now, you will have a host come on and say, “There was no evidence. All courts ruled —” etc., etc. And so you are seeing some, for lack of a better term, quality control, editorial standards locking in here a bit. So I do think that’s an absolutely better environment than in 2020 and 2021, and that does give me some optimism. But mark my words ——Cottle: Mark your words.

弗伦奇:如果塔拉里科以0.5个百分点获胜,看看得克萨斯州、阴谋论圈子里会发生什么。

French: If it’s Talarico by 0.5 percent, watch what’ll happen in Texas, in conspiracy land.

科特尔:贾梅尔,你担心认证过程吗?我的意思是,不是投票本身,而是事后——那个过程。

Cottle: Are you worried about the certification process, Jamelle? I mean, not the voting, but the after — the process.

布伊:不太担心。部分原因是共和党人也会出现在这些选票上,对吧?他们也想要自己的职位,而负责认证的州务卿、州选举委员会也会想要认证那些人。如果这些是民主党竞争性参议员获胜的唯一选举,那也许会有问题。但事实上——就你能否获得职位、能否获得工作人员、能否拿到薪水而言——大家是捆绑在一起的。我认为这让我不必担心,或者至少不必太担心。科特尔:你的意思是你感觉不错。

Bouie: Not particularly. In part because Republicans will be on these ballots, too, right? They’re going to want their offices, too, and the secretary of state, state boards of election, which are responsible for certification, are going to want to certify those people as well. If it were the case that these were the only elections where the competitive Democratic Senate wins, then maybe. But the fact that — in terms of do you get your office, do you get your staff, do you get your salary — everyone’s kind of bound up together. I think that leads me not to worry, not to worry as much. Cottle: What you’re telling me is that you’re feeling good.

布伊:我是说,我认为存在一种倾向,把总统的愿望和意志等同于能力和容量。所以他们说“我们想做这些事”,发出这些威胁,我认为有一种倾向——因为我们过去10年经历了那么多疯狂的事——会说“既然他们真想做,那肯定能做成”。而我的观点一直是:真能吗?无论从实际操作层面,还是从政治博弈层面——考虑到各种力量、制度和人物的相互作用——他们可能会尝试,但不代表一定能成功。

Bouie: What I’m saying is that I think that there is a tendency to treat the desire and will of the president as equivalent to ability and capacity. And so they say, “We want to do these things,” and they make these threats, and I think that there’s a tendency — because of all the crazy stuff we’ve experienced over the last 10 years — to say, “Well, if they say they really want to do it, then it must be a thing that they can do.”And my view has always been: Is it, though? They can both practically — and thinking politically — thinking about the interplay of forces and institutions and people — they may try, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to succeed.

这不意味着人们应该自满,但我认为这意味着人们应该试着……我要做个“布伊式”的事了。在他的回忆录中,尤利西斯·S·格兰特讲了一个很有意思的故事:美墨战争期间,他和一位骑行伙伴在外面,听到了狼嚎。格兰特说:我们被狼包围了,怎么办?他的伙伴说:咱们去看看究竟。他们找过去,发现只有两只狼。格兰特说:在你数清之前,它们总显得更多。我们现在就是这种情况。科特尔:说得好。好吧。

It doesn’t mean people should be complacent, but I do think it means that one should try to, um … I’m going to, I’m going to do a me thing. So in his memoirs, Ulysses S. Grant tells this really interesting story that during the Mexican War, he is out with a riding partner and they hear wolves. And Grant’s like: We’re surrounded by wolves, what are we going to do about this? And his riding partner’s like: Let’s just go check out and see what this is. And they go find the wolves, and there’s only two wolves. And Grant says: There’s always more of them before you count them. That’s where we are. Cottle: Nice.

布伊:在清点人数之前,他们总是显得更多。能够对局势有一个清晰的认识,我认为这同样不应该让你沾沾自喜,而是应该让你对这里的实际可能性以及我们如何应对这些可能性有一个更好的判断。

OK. Bouie: There’s always more of them before you count them. Being able to have a clear view of what the landscape looks like I don’t think should, again, make you complacent, but should give you a better sense of what the actual possibilities are here, and how we can deal with those.

弗伦奇:我讨厌反驳我童年时的英雄尤达,他曾有一句名言:“要么去做,要么不做。没有试试看这回事。”其实是存在“试试看”的,而且“试试看”可能会非常危险和具有破坏性,哪怕这种尝试最终失败了。比如1月6日那次事件。尽管它失败了,但这对美国人、对美国的政治共同体来说是一件极具破坏性的事。我赞同贾迈儿的看法。

French: I hate to contradict one of my childhood heroes, Yoda, who famously said, “Do or do not. There is no try.”There is a try, and the try can be really dangerous and destructive, even when the try fails. Like Jan. 6, for example. That was a very damaging thing to Americans, the American body politic, even though it failed. And I’m with Jamelle.

他们能做到吗?我对此表示怀疑。他们会尝试吗?如果客观条件哪怕有任何一点接近的可能、哪怕存在哪怕一丁点儿的可能性,我认为他们都会去尝试。然后,你就会进入这场努力究竟会带来多大破坏的领域;这正是我所担心的地方。

Can they do it? I’m skeptical. Will they try it? If the conditions are at all where there’s any shouting distance, any kind of possibility at all, I think they would try it. And then you’re in the realm of how destructive does the effort get? And that’s what I get worried about.

科特:我们一直在讨论民调,以及特朗普对共和党产生的“放射性”负面影响。这并不是说美国人真的对哪一个政党满意。人们普遍存在很多厌恶和沮丧情绪。话虽如此,在我们总结这场非常奇怪的中期选举对话时,我想往积极的方向谈谈。请告诉我一些你们认为两党各自做得好的事情。我的意思是,显然是在他们所处的客观环境下。所以,请为双方各列举一些亮点。

Cottle: We have been talking about polls and the radioactivity of Trump rubbing off on the Republican Party. It’s not like Americans are really happy with either party. There’s a lot of just general disgust and frustration. That said, as we wrap up this very weird midterm conversation, I want to go positive. Tell me something that you think each team has done well. I mean, obviously, operating within the circumstances that they’ve been given. So give me some high points for each team.

布伊:我的意思是,我认为民主党在本轮选举周期的候选人招募方面做得确实非常出色。塔拉里科;堪萨斯州的汉密尔顿;让谢罗德·布朗在俄亥俄州重新披挂上阵。我的意思是,当你开始审视那些参加这些竞选的人时,比如北卡罗来纳州的罗伊·库珀,你会发现这是一组实力强劲的候选人,他们与各自的州相契合,与当地的情况相契合,并且没有犯下什么重大错误,对吧?没有出现大量的失误。我认为,这与共和党候选人的招募情况形成了鲜明的对比,尤其是在参议院竞选中。

Bouie: I mean, I think Democrats have done an actually exceptional job at candidate recruitment this cycle. Talarico; Hamilton in Kansas; getting Sherrod Brown to jump back into it in Ohio. I mean, when you start looking at the people who are running in these races, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, you’re looking at a set of just strong candidates that match the states, match the circumstances and aren’t really making major mistakes, right? There aren’t a ton of missteps. And it’s a real contrast with, I think, how Republican candidate recruitment has gone, especially in the Senate races.

公平地说,共和党方面,当选举周期开始时,人们并不期待这些竞选会如此激烈。所以,当然,你可以让一个“低于替代水平”的人获得提名,因为你会想:“好吧,反正我们会赢。”因此,共和党人在某种程度上,不太能理解地意识到冰球正在往哪个方向滑动。但我认为,民主党基本上招募到了他们能找到的最强候选人,而这一点,和其他任何因素一样,都在促成他们的好运。科特尔:你有没有想从红队那边说点正面的话?布伊:我是说,没有。我不能——科特尔:公平。公平。

In fairness to Republicans, when the cycle began, there was no expectation that these races would be all that competitive. So sure, you can let a below-replacement-value person get the nomination because you’re like, “Yeah, well, we’re going to win anyway.”So there’s a certain sense of Republicans not quite understandably realizing where the puck was going. But I think Democrats basically recruited the strongest possible candidates they could, and that, as much as anything, is contributing to their good fortune here. Cottle: And do you have anything from the red team that you want to say something positively? Bouie: I mean, no. I can’t ——Cottle: Fair. Fair.

布伊:但说真的,说真的,说真的——就共和党在这次选举周期中试图或采取的方式而言,我真的很难想到或想出一个好的选择。我是说,他们手里有一个非常强有力的候选人:那就是艾希莉·欣森,来自爱荷华州。招募得很好。但除此之外,共和党犯下的重大战略错误是,完全听从特朗普18个月,现在他们无法与他划清界限。科特尔:他们自作自受。布伊:是啊,他们自作自受,所以。

Bouie: But seriously, seriously, seriously — just in terms of how the Republicans have been trying to, or have been approaching this election cycle, it is genuinely difficult for me to think about or think of a good choice. I mean, they have one very strong candidate on the table: That’s Ashley Hinson in Iowa. Great recruit. But beyond that, the big, strategic mistake Republicans made was to just completely defer to Trump for 18 months, and now they can’t separate themselves from him. Cottle: They’ve made their bed. Bouie: Yeah, they’ve made their bed, so.

弗伦奇:所以我想说,如果你要找一个红色亮点,那就是明尼苏达州的米歇尔·塔福亚。那场竞选要竞争激烈得多。那场竞选比民主党预想的要激烈得多。我认为民主党最终仍会获胜,但如果你要看看全国各地,哪位共和党人超出了预期,我打赌明尼苏达州会名列前茅。再说一遍,我认为她不被看好。明尼苏达州是个蓝州。它越来越接近蓝州,但它仍然是个蓝州。所有基本面都有利于民主党,但我认为,从共和党的角度来看,这是一场值得关注的竞选。

French: So I would say, if you’re going to look at a red bright spot, it would be Michele Tafoya in Minnesota. That is much more competitive. That race is a lot more competitive than Democrats expected it would be. I think that the Democrats will still pull it out, but if you’re going to look across the country and see where a Republican did overperform expectations, I’m betting Minnesota is going to be at the top of that list. Again, I think the odds are against her. Minnesota’s a blue state. It’s been closer and closer blue, but it’s still a blue state. All the fundamentals are with the Democrats, but I think that this is one race to keep an eye on from the Republican perspective.

在民主党方面,我认为民主党更有意识地争取信仰选民的选票,坦率地说,这是他们较好的决定之一。我曾对此撰文详述,关于“上帝鸿沟”,2024年不仅是白人福音派大量涌出支持特朗普;22个新教教派中有18个向红色阵营倾斜,其中包括美国一些较为自由和最自由的教派。

On the Democratic side, I think watching the Democrats more intentionally compete for the faith-based vote is one of their better decisions, quite frankly. And this is something I wrote about at some length, about the “God gap,” where in 2024 it wasn’t just white evangelicals who came out in large numbers for Trump; 18 of 22 Protestant denominations moved more red, including some of the more liberal and most liberal denominations in America.

因此,民主党面临着一个信仰层面的问题。民主党在信仰选民中确实存在真正的问题。当然,黑人新教徒仍然压倒性地支持卡玛拉·哈里斯,但你也能看到这些数字出现了向红色阵营倾斜的变化。

So you had a faith-based problem. The Democratic Party had a real problem with faith-based voters. Now, Black Protestants still went overwhelmingly, obviously, for Kamala Harris, but you saw even movement in those numbers in a more red direction.

所以我认为,推出像汉密尔顿、塔拉里科等候选人——而在许多方面,拉斐尔·沃诺克在佐治亚州展示了这条路并开辟了这条道路——让非常强调信仰的候选人出现在台前,不,你不会吸引太多保守派白人福音徒。他们与共和党的联系过于紧密,但他们并非这个国家所有的信仰人士。因此,深入其中,为那块领地、那片阵地而战,我认为民主党这一做法非常、非常明智。必要之举。

And so I think by getting candidates out there like Hamilton, like Talarico and others — and Raphael Warnock, in many ways, showed that way and blazed that trail in Georgia — to have very faith-forward candidates, no, you’re not going to peel off too many of the conservative white evangelicals. They’re too closely wedded to the Republican Party, but those are not all the people of faith in this country. And so diving in and fighting over that turf and over that ground, I think, has been very, very smart by Democrats. Necessary.

科特尔:是的,我认为,除了具体候选人之外,民主党试图做的是摆脱他们极端、反传统、反一切此类事物的光环。所以我认为这有帮助。我确实认为,从大局来看,这有助于改善那种形象。

Cottle: Yeah, and I think, beyond the specifics of the individual candidates, what the Democrats are trying to do is shuck some of their aura of being extremist and anti-traditional and anti-everything along those lines. So I think that this helps. I do think that this helps with that on a bigger picture.

我承认共和党在招募候选人方面确实干了一些真正糟糕的事,其中大部分都能追溯到 MAGA 品牌的人物,比如帕克斯顿,或者佐治亚州的情况,那里奥索夫面对的是一个非常弱的迈克·柯林斯。但我也认为,在缅因州这种有摇摆州温和派苏珊·柯林斯的地方,共和党——确切地说主要是特朗普——让他们得以与党保持距离。我是说,这大概算是“勉强夸奖”,但现实就是如此。

I take the point that Republicans have done some truly wretched things in the recruiting department, most of which can be tied to the MAGA brands like Paxton or the situation in Georgia, where Ossoff is up against a very weak Mike Collins. But I also think that where they’ve got their swing state moderates like Susan Collins in Maine, the party — and by that you have to say Trump in particular, has let them separate themselves. I mean, I guess that’s damning with faint praise, but, you know, it is what it is.

至于民主党,这次他们似乎认真起来了,尝试各种不同办法来吸引特定选民群体。除了党内推出的优秀候选人,他们还——以内布拉斯加州为例,你们知道我去那里采访过丹·奥斯本,他是作为独立候选人对阵皮特·里基茨——民主党全力支持他,因为民主党在内布拉斯加的品牌简直是一场灾难,他们把这看作:让一个志同道合的独立人士参选,总比仅仅为了挂个“D”标签就支持某人要强。

And as far as the Democrats, this time they seemed to have gotten serious about trying all kinds of different things to appeal to the particular electorates. So in addition to the great candidates within the party that they have put forward, they’ve also — say, in Nebraska, you guys know I went out there to talk to Dan Osborn, who’s an independent running against Pete Ricketts — the Democrats have fully thrown in behind him because the Democratic brand in Nebraska is a disaster, and they are looking at this as: It’s better to have a like-minded independent in the race than to just throw in behind somebody with a D just for the sake of it.

就说这些吧。但在进入推荐环节前,我得占用一分钟,想通知纽约市地区的听众,11 月 5 日,也就是中期选举后两天,我们三人将在布鲁克林公立图书馆中央馆现场联袂录制《The Opinions》。我们真心希望各位“政治发烧友”能来现场,看我们难得面对面聊天。详情请看节目备注或查阅布鲁克林图书馆的活动页面。你们肯定想来现场看看这几位戴着帽子的真人。期待在那儿见到大家。好了,到了大家最爱的时刻——推荐环节。大卫?

So that’s it. But before we go to recommendations, I’ve got to take a minute, and I want to let folks in the New York City area know that on Nov. 5, just two days after the midterms, the three of us will be together live and in person, taping “The Opinions” at the Central branch of the Brooklyn Public Library. We really would love to see our fellow political sickos come out while we chat with one another altogether for the rare, rare face-to-face confab. So see our show notes or check out the Brooklyn Library’s events pages for more info. You know you want to come out and see these guys in their hats live and in person. So I look forward to seeing everybody there. And with that, it’s everybody’s favorite moment. It’s time for recommendations. David?

弗伦奇:这次我要推荐点轻松的内容,米歇尔。这不是一部新剧,已经播出几年了,但我和妻子刚刚在HBO上发现了《镀金时代》,这是一部历史题材的时代剧。之所以说是轻松,是因为每一集的赌注不一定很大,因为它讲述的是镀金时代曼哈顿的社交生活。所以有时候赌注就是,主要角色之一能否被邀请去歌剧院的包厢,这意味着——科特尔:非常重要。

French: So I’m going with a little bit of lighter fare this time, Michelle. And this is not a new show. It’s been around for a few years, but my wife and I just discovered “The Gilded Age” on HBO, and it’s a historical period drama. And I say lighter because the stakes in any given episode are not necessarily huge, because it’s a story about social life in Gilded Age-era Manhattan. And so sometimes the stakes are things like, is one of the main characters going to get invited to a box at the opera house, signifying ——Cottle: Very important.

弗伦奇:比如,社会地位的提升。你会想:谁会看这个?嗯,演技非常出色。我是历史迷,喜欢任何以真实历史为背景、至少在某种程度上以真实历史为蓝本的作品。而且它制作得非常精良。不像我平时看的那些又黑又血腥的作品。所以,米歇尔,你偶尔也需要从那些作品中抽离出来。就偶尔。科特尔:服装好看吗?因为这对我来说很重要。

French: Like, increasing social status. And you’re thinking: Why would anybody watch that? Well, it’s incredibly well acted. I’m a sucker for history, for anything that is set in real-world history and modeled, at least to some degree, on real-world history. And it’s just really well done. It’s not as dark and murdery as my typical fare that I’m watching. So every now and then you need a break from it, Michelle. Just every now and then. Cottle: Are the costumes pretty? Because this is important to me.

弗伦奇:哦,每个人都穿得像——科特尔:这就是我需要知道的。我来就是为了这个。弗伦奇:那种人穿着燕尾服和家人一起去吃晚饭的场景。科特尔:这就够了。我心动了。贾梅尔?

French: Oh, everybody is dressed, like, this is the kind of thing ——Cottle: That’s what I need to know. That’s what I’m here for. French: Where people are going to dinner with their family in tuxedos. That’s the kind of thing. Cottle: There you go. I’m sold. Jamelle?

布伊:我有一个推荐,涉及同一时期。我最近看了1975年彼得·威尔执导的电影《悬崖野餐》,这是澳大利亚电影史上非常重要的一部作品。这部电影让彼得·威尔成为了一位大导演,讲述的是1900年,一群女孩在一个叫悬崖岩的地方野餐时神秘失踪的故事。我能想到的最好的描述方式是,这部电影让你感觉像是在看某个人对一场梦的回忆。这是一部非常神秘的电影,那个谜团并没有真正解开,但你观看它,很大程度上是为了那种氛围。我真的很着迷。Cottle:我在哪里可以观看?

Bouie: I have a recommendation that involves the same time period. I recently watched the 1975 Peter Weir film “Picnic at Hanging Rock,” which is this very important film in Australian cinema. It’s the film that made Peter Weir a big-name director, and it is about the mysterious disappearance of a group of girls at a picnic in 1900, at a place called Hanging Rock. The best way I can describe this movie is that it feels like you’re watching someone’s memory of a dream. It’s a very enigmatic film. With the mystery that doesn’t really resolve itself, but you’re there as much for the vibe as you are anything else. And I was really taken with it. Cottle: Where can I watch this?

Bouie:我认为它在标准频道上。或者你可以从Apple TV之类的平台租借。大约一小时四十分钟。并不特别长。但我觉得它有点迷人,非常奇怪,但很迷人。

Bouie: I believe it’s on the Criterion Channel. Or you can just rent it from Apple TV or whatnot. It’s like an hour and 40 minutes. It’s not particularly long. But I found it kind of enchanting, and very strange, but enchanting.

French:贾梅尔,总有一天你会推荐一部我看过的电影。今天不是这一天。

French: Jamelle, one day you will recommend a movie that I have seen. And it is not this day.

Cottle:希望永在。好了,现在是十月。万圣节临近,播客听众可能知道,我是万圣节的狂热爱好者。我家会变成——就像万圣节精品店在前院呕吐了一样。邻居们都期待着。我们会举办派对。诸如此类。所以这个月我会看恐怖电影或恐怖系列,因为我就是这样的人,我想推荐一部我原以为会非常糟糕,结果却非常有趣的作品,那就是迈克·弗拉纳根的迷你剧,重拍《Carrie》,原著是斯蒂芬·金——我想那是斯蒂芬·金的第一部小说。Bouie:斯蒂芬·金,没错。

Cottle: Hope springs eternal. All right, well, it’s October. We’re coming up close on Halloween, and as pod fans may know, I’m a fool for Halloween. My house turns into — it’s like Spirit Halloween threw up in my front yard. The neighbors wait on it. We have a party. That sort of thing. So I watch horror movies or horror series during the month, because that’s just how I roll, and I want to recommend something that I thought was going to be absolutely horrible but turned out to be wildly entertaining, and that is the Mike Flanagan mini-series just remaking “Carrie,” the original Stephen — I think that was Stephen King’s first novel. Bouie: Stephen King, yeah.

Cottle:但它实际上相当精彩。他们对超自然元素做了一些变化。我不想深入细节,不想剧透。不需要太大投入。可以在线流媒体观看。迈克·弗拉纳根,对于关注这类作品的人来说,他拍摄过《山屋魅影》《厄舍府的倒塌》。他也拍恐怖电影,但通常比较智慧,不是砍杀片。所以,这就是我给万圣节恐怖季节的听众的推荐。

Cottle: But it’s actually kind of fantastic. They play around a little bit with the supernatural element of it. I won’t get into details; I don’t want to spoil anything. It’s not a big commitment. It’s streaming. Mike Flanagan, for those who follow this sort of thing, he’s the guy who did “The Haunting of Hill House,” “The Fall of the House of Usher.”He does horror movies as well, but they tend to be smart, and they’re not slasher movies. So anyway, that’s my recommendation for the Halloween spooky season people out there.

去看看。好了,我们要收官了。各位,一如既往,非常愉快。我们在选举日之后再见。Bouie:是的。再见,我们会知道我们的国家发生了什么。Cottle:说到恐怖。太恐怖了。French:期待那一天。

Check it out. And with that, we’re going to land this plane. Guys, it has been delightful, as always. I will see you on the other side of Election Day. Bouie: Yeah. See you, and we’ll find out what happened to our country. Cottle: Speaking of spooky. So spooky. French: Looking forward to it.

想法?请发邮件至theopinions@nytimes.com。

Thoughts? Email us at theopinions@nytimes.com.

本期《观点》节目由德里克·阿瑟制作。编辑为吉莉安·温伯格和艾莉森·布鲁泽克。混音由高塔姆·斯里基尚负责。视频剪辑由克里斯汀·威廉姆森完成。后期制作经理为迈克·普雷茨。原创音乐由帕特·麦卡斯克创作。事实核查由安妮卡·罗宾斯和玛丽·马奇·洛克完成。受众策略由克里斯蒂娜·萨穆莱夫斯基和阿里·巴卢奇负责。观点视频总监为乔纳·M·凯塞尔。音频工程总监为艾萨克·琼斯。观点节目副总监为艾莉森·布鲁泽克。观点节目总监为安妮-罗斯·斯特拉瑟。

This episode of “The Opinions” was produced by Derek Arthur. It was edited by Jillian Weinberger and Alison Bruzek. Mixing by Gautam Srikishan. Video editing by Kristen Williamson. The postproduction manager is Mike Puretz. Original music by Pat McCusker. Fact-checking by Annika Robbins and Mary Marge Locker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Ali Baluch. The director of Opinion Video is Jonah M. Kessel. The director of audio engineering is Isaac Jones. The deputy director of Opinion Shows is Alison Bruzek. The director of Opinion Shows is Annie-Rose Strasser.

本文字稿的早期版本错误引述了贾梅尔·布伊的言论。应为“骑行搭档”,而非“写作搭档”。

An earlier version of this transcript misstated the comments by Jamelle Bouie. It should have been riding partner not writing partner.

我们以更正的方式承认报道中的错误。如果您发现错误,请发邮件至 corrections@nytimes.com 告知我们。了解更多。

We acknowledge mistakes in our reporting with corrections. If you spot an error, please let us know at corrections@nytimes.com. Learn more.

米歇尔·科特尔为观点版撰写国内政治文章。自克林顿政府时期以来,她一直报道华盛顿和政治。@mcottle 贾梅尔·布伊于2019年成为《纽约时报》观点专栏作家。在此之前,他是《Slate》杂志的首席政治记者。他常驻弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Michelle Cottle writes about national politics for Opinion. She has covered Washington and politics since the Clinton administration. @mcottle Jamelle Bouie became a New York Times Opinion columnist in 2019. Before that he was the chief political correspondent for Slate magazine. He is based in Charlottesville, Va.

大卫·弗伦奇是观点专栏作家,撰写有关法律、文化、宗教和武装冲突的文章。他是“伊拉克自由行动”的老兵,也曾是一名宪法诉讼律师。他最近的一本书是《分裂的我们将倒下:美国的分离威胁与如何恢复我们的国家》。您可以在Threads(@davidfrenchjag)上关注他。

David French is an Opinion columnist, writing about law, culture, religion and armed conflict. He is a veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom and a former constitutional litigator. His most recent book is “Divided We Fall: America’s Secession Threat and How to Restore Our Nation.”You can follow him on Threads (@davidfrenchjag).

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