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埃尔多安押注索马里,将土耳其拖入更广泛的红海争夺Erdogan’s Somalia Bet Pulls Turkey Into a Wider Red Sea Contest

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索马里摩加迪沙的索马里总统府。Villa Somalia in Mogadishu, Somalia.

总统哈桑·谢赫·马哈茂德在摩加迪沙的办公室坐落于一座绿树成荫的院落内,院内最显眼的是一座闪闪发光、土耳其建造的全新石制与玻璃建筑,该建筑配有木饰面的上层、四根入口立柱,外面停放着黑色SUV。

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s office in Mogadishu sits within a leafy compound dominated by a gleaming new Turkish-built stone-and-glass building, complete with a wood-trimmed upper story, four entrance columns and black SUVs parked outside.

这座富丽堂皇的综合建筑内设被称为索马里别墅的总统基地,这只是土耳其在处于战略要地的这个非洲之角国家拥有广泛足迹的一个例子。

The extravagant complex housing Villa Somalia, as the presidential base is known, is just one example of Turkey’s extensive footprint across the strategically positioned Horn of Africa nation.

马哈茂德的访客抵达由土耳其公司建造和运营的机场航站楼,然后驾车行驶在一条土耳其修建的道路上。在城另一端,一家土耳其企业经营着海港,该国最大的医院以土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的名字命名。

Mohamud’s visitors arrive at an airport terminal built and operated by Turkish companies, before driving down a Turkish-built road. Across town, a Turkish firm runs the seaport, and the country’s largest hospital is named for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

土耳其在占地广阔的军事学院——土耳其-索马里军事训练营(TURKSOM)训练索马里士兵,摩加迪沙还拥有安卡拉在全球最大的使馆综合建筑。在近海,土耳其船员正在钻探石油。在首都郊外,土耳其正在建造一座航天发射场。土耳其无人机和F-16战机在头顶上空运行。

Turkey trains Somali soldiers at Camp TURKSOM, a sprawling military academy, and Mogadishu hosts Ankara’s largest embassy complex in the world. Offshore, Turkish crews are drilling for oil. Outside the capital, Turkey is building a spaceport. Turkish drones and F-16s operate overhead.

在埃尔多安的领导下,土耳其扩大了其军事和地缘政治足迹,其程度达到了自奥斯曼帝国以来所未见的水平,从利比亚到伊拉克北部、叙利亚、卡塔尔和阿塞拜疆,到处都有土耳其的军队和基地。

Under Erdogan, Turkey has grown its military and geopolitical footprint to an extent not seen since the Ottoman Empire, with troops and bases everywhere from Libya to northern Iraq, Syria, Qatar and Azerbaijan.

不过,索马里尤为重要。土耳其是寻求在那里扩大影响力的众多大国之一,自从美国和以色列对伊朗的战争颠覆了全球航运以来,该国的重要性与日俱增。索马里位于亚丁湾、靠近至关重要的曼德海峡,船只在从苏伊士运河前往印度洋的途中需要经过该国北部海岸。

Somalia, though, is particularly important. Turkey is one of a number of powers looking to expand their influence there, with the country only growing in importance since the US and Israel’s war on Iran upended global shipping. Somalia sits on the Gulf of Aden near the critical Bab el-Mandeb strait, and vessels need to pass by the country’s northern coast en route to the Indian Ocean from the Suez Canal.

自2月下旬冲突爆发之初伊朗实际上关闭了霍尔木兹海峡以来,这个中转站变得尤为关键,而曼德海峡则受到了也门德黑兰支持的胡塞武装打击的威胁。

The transit point has become particularly critical since Iran effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the conflict in late February, while Bab el-Mandeb has been threatened by strikes by the Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

摩加迪沙的雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安训练和研究医院。Recep Tayyip Erdogan Training and Research Hospital in Mogadishu.

土耳其在推进索马里事务上与沙特阿拉伯结盟。这两个国家最近与巴基斯坦签署了共同防御条约,均支持这个饱受战乱的非洲国家的中央政府,并支持其防止国家分裂的努力。

Turkey is allied in its Somalia push with Saudi Arabia. The duo, who recently signed a mutual-defense pact alongside Pakistan, both back the war-torn African country’s central government and its bid to ensure the state doesn’t break up.

相比之下,阿拉伯联合酋长国和以色列——两国于2020年在美国斡旋下签署《亚伯拉罕协议》建立外交关系——已与索马里的一些分裂和半自治地区建立了联系。去年,以色列成为首个承认其中之一——索马里兰——为独立国家的国家。阿联酋尚未这样做,但在那里拥有重要存在。

The United Arab Emirates and Israel, which established diplomatic relations under the US-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020, have, in contrast, built ties with some of Somalia’s breakaway and semi-autonomous regions. Last year, Israel became the first country to recognize one of them, Somaliland, as an independent state. The UAE hasn’t done the same but has a significant presence there.

上个月在索马里总统府“索马里别墅”发表讲话时,穆哈穆德赞扬了土耳其,并指责阿联酋在破坏该国。他对彭博新闻社表示:“安卡拉‘接受了许多西方国家无法接受的风险水平’。‘他们站在我们一边改善局势。’”穆哈穆德说,相比之下,阿布扎比“采取的每一步都在瓦解索马里”。“阿联酋在非洲或任何其他地方都不是一个稳定因素。”阿联酋外交部未回应置评请求。

Speaking at Villa Somalia last month, Mohamud praised Turkey and accused the UAE of working against the country. Ankara “accepted the level of risk that many Western countries cannot accept,” he told Bloomberg News. “They stood with us to improve the situation.”Abu Dhabi, in contrast, takes “every step that disintegrates Somalia,” Mohamud said. “The UAE is not a stabilizing factor in Africa or anywhere else.”The UAE foreign ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

当许多西方外交官和国际机构仍从邻国肯尼亚远程办公时,土耳其已进驻索马里。2011年,当饥荒肆虐索马里、基地组织分支“青年党”被赶出首都时,埃尔多安携家人、内阁部长、援助官员和商界人士抵达。安卡拉重开大使馆,倾注援助,并开始修建道路、医院和学校。

Turkey moved into Somalia when many Western diplomats and international institutions still operated remotely from neighboring Kenya. In 2011, as famine ravaged Somalia and al Qaeda-affiliate al-Shabaab was being pushed out of the capital, Erdogan arrived with his family, cabinet ministers, aid officials and businesspeople. Ankara reopened its embassy, poured in aid and began building roads, hospitals and schools.

索马里总统哈桑·谢赫·马哈茂德在摩加迪沙总统府的办公室里。President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in his office at Villa Somalia, in Mogadishu.

与西方大国形成鲜明对比。美国仍拥有强大的军事力量,截至9月中旬,今年已在索马里对“青年党”实施了至少83次打击。但驻地美方官员被限制在机场周围戒备森严的“绿区”内,基本无法离开,甚至无法前往市内参加官方会议。土耳其庞大的大使馆建筑群则位于该飞地之外。

The contrast with Western powers is stark. The US still wields formidable military power, carrying out at least 83 strikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia this year as of mid-September. But American officials on the ground are cloistered in a heavily fortified Green Zone around the airport, largely unable to leave even for official meetings across town. Turkey’s vast embassy complex sits outside the enclave.

土耳其的经济雄心不仅延伸至海上航道,还涵盖了该地区尚未开发的渔业以及石油和天然气储量。

Turkey’s economic ambitions extend beyond sea lanes to the region’s untapped fisheries and oil and gas reserves.

今年4月,土耳其国有土耳其石油公司在距离摩加迪沙约370公里(230英里)的海域开始钻探库拉德-1号(Curad-1)井,这是土耳其首次在海外进行深海钻探作业。该作业正在勘测索马里大面积未开发的领海中是否存在石油和天然气。总统表示,土耳其也是在首都以北建造新海港的主要竞争者,尽管相关谈判仍在继续。

In April, state-owned Turkish Petroleum began drilling the Curad-1 well about 370 kilometers (230 miles) off Mogadishu, Turkey’s first deep-sea drilling operation abroad. It is testing Somalia’s largely unexplored waters for oil and gas. Turkey is also the leading contender to build a new seaport north of the capital, the president said, though talks are continuing.

索马里银行家协会首席执行官艾哈迈德·卡达尔·贾马在谈到土耳其时表示:“我们的人民对他们的角色存在分歧。如果他们不干涉政治辩论和竞选,就能维持良好的声誉。”阿联酋的影响力在索马里兰和邦特兰最为深厚,两地与其签署了安全协议。迪拜环球港务集团已投入逾7.5亿美元用于开发港口,旨在争夺与内陆国埃塞俄比亚的贸易,并让阿布扎比在连接非洲、亚洲和欧洲的海运航线上获得立足点。

“Our people are divided over their role,” said Ahmed Khadar Jama, chief executive officer of the Somali Bankers Association, referring to Turkey. “If they do not interfere in the political debates and campaigns they can maintain a good reputation.”The UAE’s influence is deepest in Somaliland and Puntland, where it’s signed security pacts. Dubai’s DP World Ltd. has committed more than $750 million to developing ports that aim to capture trade with land-locked Ethiopia and give Abu Dhabi a foothold along the shipping routes linking Africa, Asia and Europe.

4月12日,土耳其的“恰勒·贝”号(Cagri Bey)钻探船出发前往摩加迪沙的库拉德-1(Curad-1)井位进行深海钻探。Turkiye’s drillship, Cagri Bey, departs for deep-sea drilling at the Curad-1 well site in Mogadishu, on April 12.

阿联酋还向忠于朱巴兰总统艾哈迈德·马多贝的部队提供了军用车辆,并为其资助了情报和安全培训。

The UAE has also provided military vehicles and funded intelligence and security training for forces loyal to Jubaland’s president, Ahmed Madobe.

索马里兰自1991年以来一直运行自己的政府,而邦特兰和朱巴兰也行使着广泛的自治权。

Somaliland has run its own government since 1991, while Puntland and Jubaland also exercise exercise wide autonomy.

今年1月,索马里取消了与阿联酋的安全、国防和商业协议,指责阿布扎比侵犯其主权。据彭博社报道,此前沙特阿拉伯曾施压索马里限制与这位海湾对手的关系。索马里兰、邦特兰和朱巴兰拒绝了摩加迪沙的决定,并表示他们与阿联酋的交往将会继续。

In January, Somalia canceled its security, defense and commercial agreements with the UAE, accusing Abu Dhabi of violating its sovereignty. The decision came after Saudi Arabia pressed Somalia to curb ties with its Persian Gulf rival, Bloomberg reported. Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland rejected Mogadishu’s decision and said their dealings with the UAE would continue.

“安卡拉在寻求维护其已建立的影响力和战略立足点时,发现自己日益陷入与地区对手的间接竞争中,”安卡拉TEPAV(土耳其经济政策研究基金会)安全专家尼哈特·阿里·奥兹詹(Nihat Ali Ozcan)表示。阿联酋和以色列“扩大自身影响力的努力,正在提高保护土耳其所获成果的军事和政治成本。”在向议会发表的讲话中,穆哈穆德谴责以色列承认索马里兰是“赤裸裸的入侵”,警告称其国家不会允许领土成为犹太国家地区战争的基地。

“Ankara increasingly finds itself in indirect competition with regional rivals as it seeks to preserve the influence and strategic foothold it has built,” said Nihat Ali Ozcan, a security expert at Ankara-based TEPAV. Efforts by the UAE and Israel “to expand their own influence are raising the military and political costs of protecting Turkey’s gains.”In an address to parliament, Mohamud condemned Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a “naked invasion,” warning that his country would not allow its territory to become a base for the Jewish state’s regional wars.

以色列对索马里兰感兴趣的一个原因是,它位于亚丁湾对面,直面也门。近年来,伊朗支持的胡塞武装曾从也门向以色列——以及沙特阿拉伯和南红海的船只——发射导弹和无人机。

One reason for Israel’s interest in Somaliland is that it sits across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen. From there, Iran-backed Houthi militants have fired missiles and drones at Israel — as well as Saudi Arabia and ships in the southern Red Sea — in recent years.

此后不久,索马里与卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯签署了军事合作协议。在埃尔多安2月访问利雅得期间,土耳其和沙特阿拉伯共同谴责以色列的举动,并拒绝制造破坏索马里统一的“平行实体”。

Shortly after, Somalia signed military cooperation agreements with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. During a visit by Erdogan to Riyadh in February, Turkey and Saudi Arabia jointly condemned Israel’s move and rejected attempts to create “parallel entities” that undermine Somalia’s unity.

保护土耳其在索马里建立的成果,使安卡拉越来越深地卷入该国内部冲突。据以色列国家安全研究所称,2017年,安卡拉开设了“土索”训练营(TURKSOM),并已培训了索马里三分之一以上的安全部队。

Protecting what Turkey has built in Somalia has drawn Ankara ever deeper into the country’s internal conflicts. In 2017, Ankara opened TURKSOM and has trained more than a third of Somalia’s security forces, according to Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.

索马里士兵在摩加迪沙的土耳其-索马里军事学院(TURKSOM军营)手持土耳其和索马里国旗。Somali soldiers with Turkish and Somali flags at Camp TURKSOM military academy in Mogadishu.

由埃尔多安女婿塞尔丘克·拜拉克塔尔(Selçuk Bayraktar)经营的拜卡尔公司(Baykar)向索马里提供了TB2武装无人机,而土耳其今年部署了F-16战机和攻击直升机。土耳其军机打击了首都周边的武装分子阵地,欧盟研究人员记录了土耳其地面部队与青年党(al-Shabaab)交战的首个确证案例。

Baykar, the drone maker run by Erdogan’s son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar, has supplied Somalia with TB2 armed drones, while Turkey deployed F-16 fighters and attack helicopters this year. Turkish aircraft have struck militant positions around the capital, while EU researchers recorded the first confirmed Turkish ground combat against al-Shabaab.

“土耳其已全力投入,”前美国驻索马里大使拉里·安德烈说。“我看不出他们目前有退缩的迹象。”土耳其的军事存在并未完全打破“青年党”的控制。该组织仍控制着该国约30%的领土,而索马里依赖非洲联盟部队,其授权期限至2026年,但长期资金问题仍未解决。

“Turkey has gone all in,” said Larry André, a former US ambassador to Somalia. “I don’t see signs of them backing away at this point.”Turkey’s military presence has not broken al-Shabaab’s grip fully. The group still controls around 30% of the country, and Somalia relies on African Union troops whose mandate runs through 2026 but whose long-term financing is unresolved.

然而,总统穆哈穆德相信,土耳其的帮助已确保武装分子无法夺回首都。

Yet Mohamud, the president, is confident that Turkey has helped ensure the militants can’t retake the capital.

“青年党永远不会回到摩加迪沙,也不会接近那里,”穆哈穆德援引土耳其的援助说道。“我们向他们提出什么要求,他们就给我们什么。”

“Shabaab will never get back to Mogadishu or anywhere close to it,” Mohamud said, citing Turkey’s assistance. “Turkey gives us whatever we request of them.”

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