马克·卡尼致力于推动中等强国之间的全球联盟建设，但这一努力在欧洲遇到了障碍。
Mark Carney’s pursuit of a global alliance of middle powers has a Europe problem.
加拿大总理希望帮助建立一种新的世界秩序，以制衡美国和中国的力量；然而，他的愿景依赖于与欧洲建立新的合作关系——毕竟欧洲并不认为自己是“中等强国”。
Canada’s prime minister wants to help build a new world order that can counterbalance the power of the United States and China. But his vision depends on a new relationship with a Europe that doesn’t see itself as a middle power at all.
欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩则持有不同的看法：她希望建立一个以布鲁塞尔为中心的联盟，通过加强与加拿大的合作来扩大欧盟的经济和地缘政治影响力。据欧洲资深议员西格弗里德·穆雷尚表示，这一计划的目的是让欧盟成为“自由民主国家的全球中心”。
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has a different vision: a Brussels-centered bloc that extends the EU’s economic and geopolitical influence, starting with Canada. The idea, according to senior European lawmaker Siegfried Mureșan, is to create an opportunity for the EU to become the “global center of gravity for liberal democracies.”The competing visions will be tested this week when Carney and von der Leyen meet in Montreal for a summit intended to chart a new course for transatlantic relations. Both want to demonstrate they can prosper in a world upended by U.S. President Donald Trump. But they have different ideas about their curious new alliance — and face political resistance that could limit how far the partnership can go.
本周，卡尼与冯德莱恩将在蒙特利尔举行峰会，共同探讨跨大西洋关系的新方向。双方都希望证明自己能够在唐纳德·特朗普主导的世界秩序中实现繁荣发展，但对于这个新兴联盟的具体形式存在分歧，并且面临着可能阻碍合作进展的政治阻力。
Von der Leyen’s offer of “associate membership” in the EU surprised officials on both sides of the Atlantic. Four diplomats told POLITICO they were not consulted before she floated the idea in the State of the Union. The officials added that they don’t understand the label, which has yet to be defined. Germany has since led pushback on the plan.
冯德莱恩提出的“欧盟准成员国”概念令大西洋两岸的官员们感到意外；四位外交官告诉《Politico》，她在欧盟国情咨文演讲中提出这一想法时并未与各方进行充分协商。这些官员还表示，他们并不清楚“准成员国”这一概念的具体含义（该概念至今尚未被正式定义）。德国随后成为反对该计划的先锋力量。
“We’ve definitely put the cart before the horse,” one of the diplomats said. “We’re announcing something and then figuring out how to flesh it out.”Trump called the membership idea “laughable,” but also threatened “very serious tariffs” should it come to be — a reminder that leaders in pursuit of Washington workarounds must avoid provoking the White House.
其中一位外交官表示：“我们显然本末倒置了——我们先宣布了计划，然后再去思考如何具体实施它。”特朗普称这一提议“荒谬至极”，并威胁称如果该计划真的得以实施，将对其征收高额关税——这提醒那些试图绕过美国霸权的领导人必须谨慎行事，避免激怒白宫。
The leaders are under pressure to leave Montreal with more than a liberal democratic photo-op. For starters, they need to decide what “associate membership” means — and disarm resistance in the EU capitals blindsided by von der Leyen’s plan.
这些领导人面临着巨大压力：他们不仅需要完成一场形式上的自由民主主义“秀”，还需要真正实现实质性的合作。首先，他们必须明确“准成员国”（即“关联成员国”）的具体含义；同时，由于冯德莱恩的突然提议，欧盟各国政府中的反对声音突然增加，这给他们的合作带来了阻碍。
Canada’s Ambassador to the EU Jonathan Wilkinson told POLITICO last month that people got too hung up on a label that was revealed prematurely. Carney called the Canada-EU relationship an “alliance for the future” when he addressed European lawmakers in Strasbourg.
加拿大驻欧盟大使乔纳森·威尔金森上个月对《POLITICO》杂志表示，人们过于纠结于这个过早被公开的概念。卡尼在斯特拉斯堡对欧洲议员发表讲话时，将加欧关系称为“面向未来的联盟”。
Wilkinson said the Canada-EU project will show other democratic nations how to deepen partnerships. “It ties into very much what [Carney] talked about at Davos — and after Davos.”Carney, von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa have two days to chart what’s next while American foreign policy continues to stress test geopolitical relationships in midterm campaigns that will shape Trump’s last two years in office.
威尔金森强调，加欧合作项目将为其他民主国家树立榜样，展示如何深化双边伙伴关系。“这完全符合卡尼在达沃斯论坛上所倡导的理念。”卡尼、冯德莱恩以及欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔有两天时间来规划未来的合作方向。与此同时，美国的对外政策正在经历严峻的考验——中期选举正在重塑特朗普执政后的两年内美国的地缘政治格局。
The economic divide Ottawa considers the EU an obvious partner in its push to diversify trade away from the U.S. There’s already a free-trade agreement that both sides view as being underutilized.
在努力实现贸易多元化（减少对美国的依赖）的过程中，渥太华认为欧盟是一个理想的合作伙伴。目前，加欧之间已经签署了一份自由贸易协定，但双方都认为该协定的作用尚未得到充分发挥。
Leaders gathering in Montreal this week will celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Canadian-EU trade agreement, nicknamed CETA. But nine EU member countries have yet to ratify the deal, underscoring the challenge of turning rhetoric into reality.
本周在蒙特利尔举行的峰会将庆祝加欧贸易协定（简称CETA）签署十周年。然而，仍有九个欧盟成员国尚未批准该协定，这凸显了将口头承诺转化为实际行动的难度。
“We have shared challenges and many more shared opportunities,” Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu told reporters last week in Dublin, where he was invited to participate in an informal meeting of EU trade ministers, a preview of what a more integrated Canada could look like. “Canada wants to be Europe’s most reliable partner.”
“我们面临共同挑战，也拥有更多共同机遇，”加拿大国际贸易部长曼尼德·锡杜上周在都柏林对记者表示，他受邀参加欧盟贸易部长非正式会议，这预示着一个融合度更高的加拿大可能呈现的样貌。“加拿大希望成为欧洲最可靠的伙伴。”
Sidhu said CETA utilization rates in EU member countries range from 60% to 80%, making a point about room for improvement and perennial challenges. “We know there’s room to grow.”Von der Leyen’s associate membership plan “has been coldly received by member states,” a senior EU official said. “It [the summit] is more about what we do, how we can use the real potential of the CETA agreement.”CETAhas been provisionally in force since 2017.
锡杜表示，欧盟成员国对 CETA（加欧全面经济贸易协定）的利用率在 60% 至 80% 之间，以此指出仍有改进空间及长期存在的挑战。“我们知道还有增长空间。”一位欧盟高级官员称，冯德莱恩的“准会员”计划“在成员国中反响冷淡”。“此次峰会更多是关于我们做什么，如何利用 CETA 协定的真正潜力。”CETA 自 2017 年起临时生效。加欧贸易谈判宛如一份冗长的跨大西洋不满清单。
Trade talks between Canada and the bloc read like a lengthy transatlantic grievance list.
在去年 10 月布鲁塞尔与渥太华的一次会议上，欧盟抱怨加拿大的税收政策称其不成比例地打击欧洲车企、不透明的奶酪进口配额、繁琐的化妆品规则，以及其认定为歧视性的省级对欧盟葡萄酒和烈酒的税收与加价。
At a meeting between Brussels and Ottawa last October, the EU complained about Canadian taxes it says disproportionately hit European carmakers, opaque cheese-import quotas, cumbersome rules on cosmetics and what it considers discriminatory provincial taxes and markups on European wines and spirits.
与此同时，加拿大警告欧盟的防止森林砍伐规则可能给其出口商增加负担，质疑布鲁塞尔碳边境税的影响，并推动在包括人工智能在内的领域更多地认可加拿大标准。
Canada, meanwhile, warned that the EU’s deforestation rules could burden its exporters, questioned the impact of Brussels’ carbon border tax and pressed for greater recognition of Canadian standards in areas including AI.
这位欧盟高级官员将双边关系描述为受制于“刺激因素和未兑现的承诺”，称必须解决这些问题，双方才能取得进展。
The senior EU official described the relationship as constrained by “irritants and unfulfilled promises” that must be resolved if the two sides are to make progress.
加拿大总理马克·卡尼于2026年9月17日在法国东部斯特拉斯堡与欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩握手，欧洲议会主席罗伯塔·梅措拉在旁。| 让-克里斯托夫·韦尔哈根/法新社/盖蒂图片社前路仍存障碍。尽管加拿大与欧盟设想建立更深层的经济与安全伙伴关系，但双方都在推行可能将对方企业拒之门外、使其无法获得丰厚公共合同的产业政策——这是由叠加的贸易壁垒造成的“慢性死亡”。
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney shakes hands with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, next to European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, in Strasbourg, eastern France, on September 17, 2026. | Jean-Christophe Verhaegen/ AFP via Getty Images There are hurdles ahead. Even as Canada and the EU imagine a deeper economic and security partnership, both are pursuing industrial policies that could shut the other’s companies out of lucrative public contracts — death by compounded trade barriers.
布鲁塞尔对渥太华的“买加拿大货”倡议及其与《欧盟-加拿大自由贸易协定》的兼容性存有顾虑。“一些成员国不喜欢卡尼的‘买加拿大货’做法，”上述官员补充道。
Brussels has concerns about Ottawa’s “Buy Canadian” initiatives and their compatibility with the EU-Canada free trade agreement. “Some member states didn’t like the ‘Buy Canada’ thing from Carney,” the official added.
加拿大同样不确定其企业能否符合欧盟拟议的“欧洲制造”优惠资格，该优惠预料将写入一项重大产业法案，旨在将公共采购支出引导至欧洲企业。欧盟内部对于将这些优惠延伸至可信赖贸易伙伴存在分歧，预计这一议题将在蒙特利尔会谈中被提及。
Canada is likewise uncertain whether its companies will qualify for the EU’s proposed “Made in Europe” preferences foreseen in a major industry bill that would seek to channel public procurement spending to European companies. The EU is divided over whether to extend those preferences to trusted trading partners, a topic that is expected to come up in Montreal.
面对特朗普的威胁，加拿大商界领袖理解“买加拿大货”在国内的吸引力，但警告将需要做出让步。
Canadian business leaders recognize the domestic appeal of “Buy Canadian” in the face of Trump’s threats, but warn there will need to be concessions.
“要想让关系更进一步，特别是在产业合作或协作方面，这是必须解决的问题，”加拿大-欧盟贸易投资协会主席马克·卡米莱里对《政客》表示。
“It’s something that will have to be resolved in order to move the relationship deeper, particularly with respect to industrial cooperation or collaboration,” Mark Camilleri, president of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association, told POLITICO.
卡米莱里将签署已逾10年的《加欧全面经济贸易协定》（CETA）比作一座长满杂草的花园。“看到市场准入因加拿大和欧洲的优惠政策而遭到侵蚀，令我痛心，”他说。
Camilleri likened the 10-year-old CETA deal to a garden overgrown with weeds. “It pains me to see market access being eroded through Canadian and European preferences,” he said.
欧洲和加拿大领导人面临压力，须在本周拿出成果，证明“非霸权国家”——卡尼在达沃斯演讲中使用的描述——能在大国竞争时代生存并繁荣。
Pressure is on European and Canadian leaders are under pressure to deliver wins this week that demonstrate that “non-hegemons” — a descriptor Carney used in his Davos speech — can survive and thrive in an age of great-power rivalry.
加拿大人目前支持与欧洲建立更紧密的关系。但欧盟自身也面临政治逆风，从集团内部棘手的预算谈判，到其部分最大经济体中右翼民粹主义运动势头正劲。
Canadians currently support closer ties with Europe. But the EU faces political headwinds of its own, from fraught budget negotiations within the bloc to right-wing populist movements that are picking up momentum in some of its biggest economies.
一个可能的成果是达成一项新的数字贸易协定。谈判于3月启动，上周仍在进行中。但该协定在人工智能方面缺乏实质性条款，迫使双方寻找其他合作领域，有可能通过欧盟提出的《云与人工智能发展法案》来实现。该提案旨在减少对美国科技巨头的依赖，引发与华盛顿发生新争端的风险。
One likely deliverable is a new digital trade agreement. Talks launched in March and were still underway last week. But the agreement lacks substantive text on artificial intelligence, leaving the two sides to find other places to cooperate, potentially through the EU’s proposed Cloud and AI Development Act. That proposal seeks to reduce reliance on U.S. tech giants, raising the risk of a new row with Washington.
据一名欧盟官员透露，欧盟委员会还在推动加拿大加入“伊拉斯谟+”计划，即该集团的学生交换项目。卡尼已公开表示有兴趣。
The European Commission is also pushing for Canada to join Erasmus+, the bloc’s student exchange program, according to one EU official. Carney has already publicly expressed interest.
但布鲁塞尔对该伙伴关系有更大的雄心。欧盟正施压加拿大增加对乌克兰的资助，这将考验加拿大承担更多安全负担的意愿。
But Brussels has bigger ambitions for the partnership. The EU is pressing Canada to increase its funding for Ukraine, a test of Canada’s willingness to take on more of the security burden.
对冯德莱恩而言，获得这一承诺将是一场胜利。如果能在峰会结束时带走卡尼承诺探讨其提出的“准会员资格” —— 无论最终称为什么 —— 也是一场胜利。
For von der Leyen, securing that commitment would be a win. So would leaving the summit with a pledge from Carney to explore her offer of an “associate membership” — or whatever they end up calling it.
Zi-Ann Lum 多伦多报道，Sebastian Starcevic 布鲁塞尔报道，Camille Gijs 都柏林报道。
Zi-Ann Lum reported from Toronto, Sebastian Starcevic from Brussels and Camille Gijs from Dublin.