
在伦敦以东沼泽地附近,一项耗资 10 亿英镑的重建计划在首次宣布 17 年后仍处于停滞状态,这正是英国建筑成本上升如何增加财政大臣约翰·希利在本周预算案中面临的增长挑战的一个例证。
Near the marshes east of London, a £1 billion regeneration plan remains in limbo 17 years after it was first announced, an example of how rising UK building costs are adding to finance minister John Healey's growth challenge in this week's budget.
当地官员仍对珀夫利特镇的重建寄予厚望,该镇在维多利亚时代是游客一日游的热门滨河目的地,20 世纪曾是工业中心,随后大多数工厂关闭。
Local officials still have high hopes for the rebuilding of Purfleet-on-Thames, a popular riverside destination for day-trippers in the Victorian age and a hub of industry in the 20th century before most of the factories closed.
但在约 3000 套规划新建住房中,目前仅建成 34 套,因为最初的开发商未能说服投资者,该项目在财务上算得过账。
But of about 3,000 planned new homes only 34 have been built after the original developers failed to persuade investors that the financial numbers made sense.
目前,规划作为未来城镇中心的区域仍主要是一个布满尘土的工业园,带有一个供卡车司机过夜停车的停车场。
For now, the area earmarked as a future town centre is still mostly a dusty industrial park with an overnight parking lot for truckers.
尽管英国复杂的规划体系在简化方面取得了一些进展,但建筑成本上升在一定程度上阻碍了人们对住房建设和基础设施建设迅速回暖的期待——这本可加速更广泛的经济增长。
Despite some progress in streamlining Britain's complex planning system, hopes for a quick pickup in housebuilding and infrastructure - which could accelerate the broader economy - are being thwarted in part by the rising costs of construction.
对 15 多位规划和政策专家、投资者、企业领袖及经济学家的采访显示,新政策要求的累积正在推高这些成本。
Interviews with more than 15 planning and policy experts, investors, business leaders and economists show how the accumulation of new policy demands is pushing up those costs.
加上利率上升导致需求疲软,投资者持观望态度,冒着进一步放缓住房建设的风险,使政府距离其目标更远。
Combined with sluggish demand as interest rates climb, investors are wary, risking a further slowdown in housebuilding and leaving the government further from its targets.
新规范围涵盖建筑安全——这是继 2017 年格伦费尔塔大火造成 72 人遇难后的举措——以及改善生物多样性和水质、减少碳排放的要求。
The new rules range from building safety - following the Grenfell Tower fire in 2017 which killed 72 people - to requirements to improve biodiversity and water quality and reduce carbon emissions.
前住房大臣加文·巴韦尔表示,历届政府经常未能认识到,多重政策要求(包括值得推行的要求)会导致“非常显著”的累积成本,这还叠加在更高的税收、劳动力成本和通胀之上。
Gavin Barwell, a former housing minister, said governments had routinely failed to see how multiple policy demands, including worthy ones, can lead to "very significant" cumulative costs, on top of higher taxes, labour costs and inflation.
他对路透社表示,就建设需求而言,“如果不解决这个问题,情况可能会变得更糟,而不是更好。”
"The problem could get worse, not better, if you don't address this," he told Reuters, of the need to build.
许多房地产投资者已削减或暂停其项目。数据公司标普全球的一项调查显示,房屋建筑行业的活动在过去近两年的时间里几乎一直在萎缩。
Many property investors have reduced or halted their projects. Activity in the housebuilding sector has been shrinking for almost all of the last two years, according to a survey by S&P Global, a data firm.
房屋建筑商联合会(HBF)估计,为实现政府在2024年至2029年间交付150万套住房的目标,每年需要有37万套住房获得规划许可,但目前的批准量仅为该水平的58%。
The Home Builders Federation (HBF) estimates 370,000 homes need planning permission every year to meet the government’s target of delivering 1.5 million homes between 2024 and 2029, but approvals are currently running at just 58% of that level.
主要房企泰勒·温皮表示,成本上升——包括因监管带来的成本——以及可负担性担忧,意味着该公司不会在伦敦启动新项目。
Taylor Wimpey, a major homebuilder, has said rising costs - including from regulation - and affordability concerns mean it will not start new projects in London.
房屋建筑商联合会称,自2020年以来,建造一套住房的成本已增加7.6万英镑。主张促进增长的组织“繁荣英国”由巴韦尔领导,该组织表示,其中一半增幅源于政府在监管、政策和税收方面的决策。
The HBF said £76,000 had been added to the cost of building a home since 2020. Prosper UK, a pro-growth advocacy group headed by Barwell, says half of that is due to government decisions on regulation, policy and tax.
在泰晤士河畔珀弗利特,官员们正在进行尽职调查,以便与新开发商重启再生项目。
In Purfleet-on-Thames, officials are conducting due diligence before reviving the regeneration project with a new developer.
该镇地理位置优越,通勤去伦敦仅需30分钟火车车程,且靠近国际航运港口,方便当地工人通勤。
The town is well located for commuters to London, only 30 minutes away by train, and for workers at international shipping ports nearby.
但瑟罗克议会的文件显示,该项目的前开发商难以筹集债务和股权资金,以支付土地改造和基础设施建设的高昂前期成本。
But Thurrock Council documents show the project's previous developer struggled to raise debt and equity to meet high upfront costs for land adaptation and building infrastructure.
毕马威的一份审查报告发现,新的初始阶段的可行性仍“高度受限”。毕马威表示,这将要求提供低于正常水平的保障性住房,并需要1.18亿英镑的公共资金,而此时希利的预算正承受压力。
A review by KPMG found the viability of a new, initial stage remains "highly constrained". It would require a lower-than-normal provision of affordable housing and £118 million of public funding, KPMG said, at a time when Healey's budget is under strain.
社区代表预计再生项目将继续推进,但表示他们已停止向当地居民更新进展。
Community representatives expect the regeneration to go ahead but say they have stopped updating local residents.
“人们已经受够了失信的承诺,”珀弗利特社区论坛副主席特雷弗·巴切勒说。
"People have had their fill of broken promises," Trevor Batchelor, vice chair of the Purfleet-on-Thames Community Forum, said.
问题并不局限于房屋建设。在普尔弗利特顺流而下约10英里(约16公里)处,耗资100亿英镑的下泰晤士河穿越公路隧道终于动工了,该项目最早于20世纪80年代撒切尔夫人担任首相时被提出。
The problem is not limited to housebuilding. Around 10 miles further down the river from Purfleet, digging has finally begun on the £10 billion Lower Thames Crossing road tunnel first considered when Margaret Thatcher was prime minister in the 1980s.
该隧道旨在疏通英国货运主干线上的一个瓶颈路段,但因政治上的犹豫不决以及即便按英国标准也算缓慢的监管流程而一再搁置。其规划申请文件多达35.9万多页。
It is designed to unblock a choke point on Britain's haulage spine but has been held up by political wavering and a regulatory process slow even by UK standards. The planning application runs to more than 359,000 pages.
当地商会政策主管伊恩·麦克纳布表示,这种不确定性阻碍了当地企业的发展,并让潜在投资者有理由重新考虑。
Iain McNab, head of policy at the local Chambers of Commerce, said the uncertainty had hindered the area's businesses and given potential investors reasons to think twice.
据波士顿咨询公司称,在其研究的几个国家中,英国在基础设施项目前期工作(规划是其中很大一部分)的速度最慢。
According to the Boston Consulting Group, the UK was the slowest among several countries it studied for infrastructure pre-construction work, of which planning is a big part.
曾参与下泰晤士河穿越项目的顾问克里斯·斯特拉特福德表示,开发商未能与地方官员和环保团体合作会导致延误。他说,在大型基础设施项目上获得规划许可的成本可能在5亿至10亿英镑之间。这是英国难以承担的时间和金钱。
Chris Stratford, a consultant who worked on the Lower Thames Crossing, said failure by developers to work with local officials and environmental groups can cause delays. He said securing planning consent on a major infrastructure project could cost between £500 million and £1 billion. That is time and money that Britain can ill afford.
据国际货币基金组织称,英国经济今年有望增长1.3%,在七国集团国家中属于增速较快者,但不足2007-09年全球金融危机前15年平均增速的一半。
The economy is on course to grow by 1.3% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, among the fastest in the Group of Seven nations but less than half its average pace in the 15 years before the 2007-09 global financial crisis.
国际货币基金组织预计,英国经济增速将在2027年放缓至1.2%,这让希利陷入两难:一方面是医疗、教育和国防等领域要求增加公共支出的呼声,另一方面是债券市场推高了全球借贷成本。
The IMF expects UK growth to slow to 1.2% in 2027, leaving Healey caught between demands for more public spending in areas such as health, education and defence and a bond market that has pushed up the costs of borrowing worldwide.
预计他将在周三的预算案中宣布很少的税收和支出变动,但已发出信号,计划削减监管和经商成本。
He is expected to announce few changes to tax and spending in his budget on Wednesday but has signalled plans to cut regulation and the cost of doing business.
行业专家表示,近期的改革应能加快规划进程,因为这些改革使反对者更难诉诸法院,取消了一些咨询要求,并赋予部长们更多决策权。
Industry experts say recent reforms should speed up the planning process as they make it harder for opponents to turn to the courts, remove some consultation requirements and give ministers more powers over decisions.
英国的预算预测机构表示,这些变化可能会提高生产率和住房服务,到2029年将使经济的潜在产出增加0.2%,到2030年代中期将升至0.4%。但如果该行业无法降低建筑成本,这种增长将难以实现。
Britain's budget forecasters say the changes could boost productivity and housing services, adding 0.2% to the economy's potential output by 2029, rising to 0.4% in the mid-2030s. But that growth will struggle to materialise if the industry cannot get building costs down.
对于致力于推动增长的“2030繁荣联盟”首席经济学家保罗·约翰逊来说,住房建设是能够对生活水平产生实质性影响的“唯一一项变革”。
For Paul Johnson, chief economist at the 2030 Prosperity Alliance, which seeks to boost growth, housebuilding is the "one single change" that could make a meaningful difference to living standards.
新房短缺推高了房价,这阻碍了人们为寻求更好工作而搬迁,促使银行和投资者将贷款集中于房地产而非企业和基础设施,并侵蚀了收入。它还加剧了无家可归问题,从而增加了地方当局的财政压力。
The lack of new housing pushes up prices which discourages people from moving for better jobs, encourages banks and investors to focus lending on property rather than businesses and infrastructure and eats into incomes. It also exacerbates homelessness which adds to financial pressures on local authorities.
在泰晤士河畔珀弗利特,社区代表巴彻勒表示,他仍然希望这项重建计划能为该地区吸引企业。“我们有很多人,”他说,“我们现在只是在等一座城镇。”
In Purfleet-on-Thames, Batchelor, the community representative, said he remained hopeful the regeneration would attract business to the area. "We've got plenty of people," he said. "We're just waiting for a town now."