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防务技术投资热潮引发泡沫警告,因私募股权涌入Defense tech investment boom sparks bubble warning as private equity pours in

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私募股权公司正将数十亿美元注入国防技术领域,因为不断上升的军费开支和地缘政治紧张局势助长了投资热潮。

Private equity firms are pouring billions into defense technology as rising military spending and geopolitical tensions fuel an investment boom.

根据PitchBook的数据,传统的收购投资者正日益支持该行业中较年轻、高增长的公司,在2026年前九个月中,私募股权对国防领域的成长型投资达到了40亿美元,高于2024年的5亿美元。

Traditional buyout investors are increasingly backing younger, high-growth firms in the sector, according to PitchBook data, with private equity growth investments in defense reaching $4 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up from $500 million in 2024.

随着国防科技公司的成熟,分析师表示,预计私募股权、债务和其他形式的融资在弥合创新与工业化规模生产之间的差距方面将变得更加重要,因为仅靠风险投资可能不足以为这些公司的扩张提供资金。

As defense tech companies mature, analysts say private equity, debt and other forms of financing are expected to become more important in bridging the gap between innovation and industrial-scale production, as venture capital alone may not be enough to finance companies' expansion.

在此背景下,地缘政治紧张局势、战争以及各国加强军事能力的努力,正为开发从自主无人机到导弹防御系统和卫星技术等一切产品的公司创造机遇。

It comes as geopolitical tensions, wars, and countries' efforts to strengthen military capabilities are creating opportunities for companies developing everything from autonomous drones to missile defense systems and satellite technology.

律师事务所伟凯律师事务所对英国国防公司250名高层决策者进行的一项调查发现,97%的人预计其企业将在未来12个月内寻求大量的外部资金。

A survey of 250 senior decision-makers at U.K. defense companies by law firm White & Case found that 97% expected their businesses to seek significant external funding over the next 12 months.

伟凯律师事务所合伙人丹尼尔·图尔格尔对CNBC表示:“私人资本现在正在国防技术公司的融资中发挥关键作用。”

"Private capital is now playing a critical role in the financing of defence technology companies," Daniel Turgel, a partner at White & Case, told CNBC.

图尔格尔说,私募股权和风险投资公司、主权财富基金以及家族办公室都在寻求对该行业进行更多投资,这标志着与短短几年前相比发生了重大变化,并补充说,许多投资者以前对此类投资心存迟疑或受到限制。

Private equity and venture capital firms, sovereign wealth funds and family offices were all looking to invest more in the sector, marking a significant change from just a few years ago, Turgel said, adding that many investors were previously reluctant or restricted from doing so.

新一类投资者 私募股权对国防技术配置的增长,正值国防技术风险投资激增之际。根据Dealroom和Resilience Media 10月份的一份报告,北约及盟国范围内的初创企业截至9月筹集了271亿美元,几乎是2025年全年总额的两倍。

A new class of investors The growth of private equity allocations to defense technology also comes amid a surge in venture capital investment in defense technology. Startups across NATO and allied countries raised $27.1 billion through September, nearly double the total for all of 2025, according to an October report from Dealroom and Resilience Media.

尽管风险投资传统上支持年轻的高增长初创企业,而私募股权则专注于更成熟的企业,但随着一些私募股权公司进军成长型投资,这种界限正日益模糊。

While venture capital traditionally backs young, high-growth startups, and private equity focuses on more established businesses, the distinction is increasingly blurring as some PE firms move into growth investments.

PitchBook的首席工业分析师吉姆·科里多尔(Jim Corridore)对CNBC表示:“私募股权公司正在向国防领域投入更多资金,并且它们正在改变投资方式。”

"Private equity firms are putting more money into defense, and they are changing how they do it," Jim Corridore, lead industrials analyst at PitchBook, told CNBC.

根据PitchBook的数据,国防私募股权成长型交易的数量从2024年的15起增加到2025年的31起,并在截至2026年9月的期间达到了48起。

The number of defense PE growth deals increased from 15 in 2024 to 31 in 2025 and 48 through September 2026, according to PitchBook.

在2026年,此类投资占国防私募股权交易总额的41%,而2024年仅为3%。

Those investments accounted for 41% of defense PE deal value in 2026, up from just 3% in 2024.

科里多尔说:“在我看来,很明显私募股权正在进入过去由风险投资占领的领域。”

"It is clear to me that PE is moving into territory VC used to own," Corridore said.

私募股权公司安宏资本(Advent International)在3月份宣布向下一代国防技术投入高达10亿美元的资金,其中包括对自动系统开发商盾牌人工智能公司(Shield AI)和萨罗尼克公司(Saronic)的投资。

Private equity firm Advent International announced a commitment of up to $1 billion to next-generation defense technology in March, including investments in autonomous systems developers Shield AI and Saronic.

安宏资本管理合伙人兼航空航天和国防全球负责人肖内尔·马拉尼(Shonnel Malani)对CNBC表示,该公司已经部署了这笔资金的大约四分之三。

Shonnel Malani, Advent's managing partner and global head of aerospace and defense, told CNBC the firm has already deployed roughly three-quarters of that commitment.

马拉尼表示,安宏向更年轻的国防科技公司的扩张,是其对更成熟国防企业现有投资的自然演变。

Malani said Advent's expansion into younger defense technology companies was a natural evolution of its existing investments in more mature defense businesses.

马拉尼说,安宏支持的是它所熟知的企业,优先考虑的是满足特定军事需求并经客户验证的成熟技术,而不是主要关注财务指标。

Advent is backing businesses it knows well and prioritizing proven technologies that address specific military needs and have been validated by customers, rather than focusing primarily on financial metrics, Malani said.

泡沫担忧 尽管私人资本的涌入正在帮助加速国防技术的创新,但也引发了人们对估值虚高和投机性投资的担忧。

Bubble concerns While the influx of private capital is helping accelerate innovation in defense technology, it is also fueling concerns about inflated valuations and speculative investments.

马拉尼表示,国防科技公司的估值越来越多地取决于其技术前景,而不是收入、利润或订单簿,这为对其价值的解读留下了相当大的空间。

Malani said defense technology companies are increasingly valued on their technological promise rather than revenue, profit, or order books, leaving considerable room for interpretation over what they are worth.

他补充说,随着一些公司难以将技术前景转化为商业成功,市场调整可能是不可避免的。

He added that a correction may be inevitable as some companies struggle to turn technological promise into commercial success.

“我认为存在非常大的这种风险,”他被问及是否可能出现投资泡沫时补充道。

"I think there is a very big risk of that," he added when asked whether an investment bubble could emerge.

马拉尼表示,系统中“存在大量泡沫”,并补充说,由于估值已经变得“荒谬”,Advent 已经放弃了几笔潜在投资。更多防务新闻“火力计划”:走进莱茵金属的火药扩张,欧洲正竞相补充弹药库 欧洲防务繁荣面临新考验:它真的能交付武器吗?

There is "a lot of froth in the system," Malani said, adding that Advent had walked away from several potential investments because valuations had become "silly." More defense news‘Project Firepower’: Inside Rheinmetall’s gunpowder expansion as Europe races to replenish its ammunition Europe’s defense boom faces a new test: Can it actually deliver weapons?

乌克兰的无人机战术手册正在俄罗斯大肆破坏——并颠覆了北约的投资意向 面对市场的防务困境,坦克制造商KNDS推迟首次公开募股 报道称德国将取消军舰建造计划,防务股暴跌;莱茵金属股价下跌18% 为什么欧洲突然重金押注无人机 PitchBook的科里多雷反驳了该行业过热的说法,但他预计投资兴趣将继续增长。

Ukraine’s drone playbook is wreaking havoc in Russia — and upending where NATO wants to invest Tank maker KNDS postpones IPO amid market struggles for defense Defense stocks plummet on reports Germany is scrapping warships; Rheinmetall stock down 18% Why Europe is suddenly betting big on drones PitchBook's Corridore pushed back against the notion that the sector is overheated, but he expects investment interest to keep growing.

他表示:“预算在增长,军方消耗了大量弹药,新的无人机和反无人机技术正在涌现。所有这些都为投资者提供了私募股权进行长期押注所需的稳定收入。” 其他私募股权投资者则更紧密地坚持传统的收购策略。

"Budgets are growing, the military has used up a lot of ammunition, and new drone and counter-drone technology is arriving," he said. "All of that gives investors the steady revenue PE needs to make long-term bets." Other private equity investors are sticking more closely to traditional buyout strategies.

法国私募股权公司温伯格资本合伙人的合伙人莱昂内尔·梅斯特对CNBC表示,该公司仍专注于拥有成熟产品、客户和正现金流的盈利防务企业,而不是早期初创公司。

Lionel Mestre, partner at French private equity firm Weinberg Capital Partners, told CNBC his firm still focuses on profitable defense businesses with established products, customers and positive cash flow, rather than early-stage startups.

他表示,尽管投资者对该行业的兴趣日益浓厚,但温伯格目标中较小的、成熟的防务供应商的估值并没有显著增长。

He said valuations for the smaller, established defense suppliers Weinberg targets had not increased significantly, despite growing investor interest in the sector.

梅斯特看到了为制造产能扩张提供资金以及整合欧洲分散的防务供应链的机会,并认为快速演变的无人机市场对于温伯格传统的收购策略而言还不够成熟。

Mestre sees opportunities to finance manufacturing expansion and consolidate Europe's fragmented defense supply chain, and considers the rapidly evolving drone market too immature for Weinberg's traditional buyout strategy.

温伯格瞄准的较小防务企业需要对产能、员工、营运资金和商业运营进行投资,以满足不断增长的需求。

The smaller defense businesses Weinberg is targeting need investment in production capacity, employees, working capital and commercial operations to meet rising demand.

梅斯特表示:“这个行业无论如何都必须进行整合”,他认为较小的供应商需要变得更大、更有竞争力。

"This sector will have to consolidate anyway," Mestre said, arguing that smaller suppliers need to become larger and more competitive.

他还表示,欧洲机构投资者对防务的态度已经发生了显着转变,特别是自唐纳德·特朗普总统重返白宫以及欧洲国家面临增加军费开支的新压力以来。这股热潮能带来回报吗?

He also said European institutional investors' attitudes toward defense had shifted significantly, particularly since President Donald Trump's return to the White House and renewed pressure on European countries to increase military spending. Can the boom deliver returns?

马拉尼和梅斯特都看到了私募股权公司帮助防务公司扩大生产规模的机会,它们不仅能提供资金,还能提供行业人脉和对接政府客户的渠道。

Malani and Mestre both see opportunities for PE firms to help defense companies scale production, providing not only capital but also industry connections and access to government customers.

马拉尼表示,一些初创公司在具备成为可持续的公众公司所需的成熟运营能力之前,就急于进行首次公开募股。此外,尽管投资活动有所增加,但退出机制依然是一个潜在挑战。

Malani said some startups were rushing toward initial public offerings before developing the operational maturity needed to become sustainable public companies. And, despite the increase in investment activity, exits remain a potential challenge.

根据PitchBook的数据,自2021年以来,已有504笔防务私募股权交易,但只有101次退出,不过这一比较包含了附加收购,因此不能直接衡量等待退出的投资比例。

According to PitchBook, there have been 504 defense PE deals but just 101 exits since 2021, although the comparison includes add-on acquisitions and therefore does not directly measure the proportion of investments awaiting an exit.

截至2026年9月,首次公开募股占防务私募股权退出总额的70%,这使得投资者面临不断变化的股市状况的风险。

IPOs accounted for 70% of defense PE exit value through September 2026, leaving investors exposed to changing stock market conditions.

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