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加州计划斥资250亿美元,让购房者背上更沉重的债务California wants to spend $25 billion to put homebuyers deeper in debt

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一对夫妇正欣赏着新家客厅的风景。Couple admiring the view from the living room of their new house.

加州存在住房负担能力问题。房价高昂。首付金额巨大。年轻家庭在购买第一套房子时举步维艰。那么,加州最新的想法是什么?

California has a housing affordability problem. Homes are expensive. Down payments are enormous. Young families are struggling to buy their first house. So, what's California's latest idea?

凭借250亿美元的借款权限进军抵押贷款行业。显然,当房价变得过于高昂时,解决方案就是帮助人们借更多的钱。欢迎了解第37号提案。

Get into the mortgage business with $25 billion in borrowing authority. Apparently, when housing becomes too expensive, the answer is to help people borrow even more money. Welcome to Proposition 37.

在11月的选票上,加州选民将审议一项提案,允许加州住房金融局发行高达250亿美元的收益债券,以为首付援助提供资金。

On November's ballot, California voters will consider a proposal allowing the California Housing Finance Agency to issue up to $25 billion in revenue bonds to finance down-payment assistance.

运作方式如下。买家仅需支付低至3%的首付。州政府支持的项目提供第二笔抵押贷款,最高覆盖另外17%。买家通过传统抵押贷款为其余80%进行融资。听起来好极了。

Here's how it works. Buyers put down as little as 3%. The state-backed program provides a second mortgage covering up to another 17%. The buyer finances the remaining 80% through a traditional mortgage. Sounds terrific.

只是有一个小细节。这17%可不是免费资金。这是另一笔贷款。顺便说一句,这难道不是那种引发2008年上一轮大衰退的策略吗?通过向人们提供越来越多他们负担不起的资金?而这种区别至关重要。想象一下购买一套价值80万美元的加州住宅。

Except there's one little detail. The 17% isn't free money. It's another loan. And by the way, isn’t this the kind of strategy that sparked the last Great Recession of 2008? By offering people more and more money they couldn’t afford? And this distinction matters enormously. Imagine buying an $800,000 California home.

如果按照传统的20%首付计算,你需要在前期准备16万美元,并借款64万美元。根据第37号提案,你可能只需支付2.4万美元的首付。由州政府管理的计划将再借给你13.6万美元。

With a traditional 20% down payment, you'd need $160,000 upfront and borrow $640,000. Under Proposition 37, you could potentially put down just $24,000. The state-administered program would lend you another $136,000.

你的第一笔抵押贷款仍然是64万美元。你将前期现金需求减少了13.6万美元。但你也让你的抵押贷款总债务增加了13.6万美元。

Your first mortgage would still be $640,000. You've reduced your upfront cash requirement by $136,000. But you've also increased your total mortgage debt by $136,000.

假设第一笔抵押贷款的假定利率为6.5%,第二笔为7%,期限均为30年。

Assume a hypothetical 6.5% interest rate on the first mortgage and 7% on the second, both over 30 years.

你的每月本金和利息支出将从约4,045美元增加到4,950美元。这意味着每月大约多出900美元。这其中还不包括房产税、保险和维护费用。恭喜。你用更少的现金买下了房子。

Your monthly principal and interest payments would increase from approximately $4,045 to $4,950. That's roughly $900 more every month. Property taxes, insurance and maintenance aren't included. Congratulations. You got into the house with less cash.

现在你有了更大的月度账单。由于该项目的实际利率尚未确定,因此这些数字仅用于说明问题。

Now you have a bigger monthly bill. Actual program interest rates haven't been established, so those numbers are illustrative.

公平地说,第37号提案并不是一项由纳税人出资250亿美元的免费赠予。该提案使用的是旨在通过借款人的抵押贷款偿还的收益债券,而不是加州的普通基金。

To be fair, Proposition 37 isn't a $25 billion taxpayer-funded giveaway. The proposal uses revenue bonds intended to be repaid through borrowers' mortgage payments, not California's general fund.

该州独立的立法分析师预计不会产生直接的州或地方政府成本。支持者认为,帮助买家为新建住宅提供融资可以鼓励建筑商增加供应。

The state's independent legislative analyst estimates no direct state or local government costs. Supporters argue that helping buyers finance newly constructed homes could encourage builders to increase supply.

这是一个合乎逻辑的经济论点。但它引发了一个更大的问题。帮助人们借更多的钱能让房子变得更便宜吗?

That's a legitimate economic argument. But it raises a bigger question. Does helping people borrow more money make houses cheaper?

不一定。它实际上可能会导致价格上涨。我们在新冠疫情期间刚刚经历过这一点。

Not necessarily. It could actually make prices go up. We just saw this during COVID-19.

想象一下一个有100个家庭试图购买80套住宅的社区。现在,让更多的家庭获得更大规模的融资方案。有多少套住宅可用?依然是80套。

Imagine a neighborhood with 100 families trying to buy 80 homes. Now give more families access to larger financing packages. How many homes are available? Still 80.

除非建筑商增加供应,否则额外的购买力可能会给价格带来上行压力。这是基本的经济学原理。

Unless builders increase supply, additional purchasing power can put upward pressure on prices. That's basic economics.

*加州需要更多的住宅,而不仅仅是为昂贵住宅融资的更多创造性方法。让建设变得更容易。

California needs more homes, not simply more creative ways to finance expensive ones. Make it easier to build.

减少不必要的审批延误。解决建设成本问题。允许在人们真正想居住的地方建造更多住房。这些措施直接针对根本的短缺问题。增加借贷主要针对的是首付。这两者并不是同一个问题。

Reduce unnecessary permitting delays. Address construction costs. Allow more housing where people actually want to live. Those measures attack the underlying shortage. More borrowing primarily attacks the down payment. Those are not the same problem.

有些家庭收入优渥,能够承担每月的分期付款,但却难以攒下六位数的首付。一个精心设计的贷款计划可以帮助其中一些人更快地成为房主。

There are families with excellent incomes who can afford monthly mortgage payments but struggle to accumulate six-figure down payments. A carefully structured loan program could help some of them become homeowners sooner.

但帮助买家获得债务资格,不应与降低房价混为一谈。而且第二笔抵押贷款仍然必须偿还。

But helping buyers qualify for debt shouldn't be confused with reducing the price of housing. And the second mortgage still has to be repaid.

加州的这项提案阐明了一个问题,每个购房者在接受财务援助之前都应该问自己:我是在买一套负担得起的房子,还是仅仅在寻找另一种负担这套房子的方式?

California's proposal illustrates a question every homebuyer should ask before accepting financial assistance: Am I buying a more affordable home, or am I simply finding another way to afford the home?

因为这是两种截然不同的财务结果。而且无论加州如何以富有创造力的方式包装融资,个人理财的一条铁律永远不会改变。借更多的钱并不会让某样东西的花费减少。

Because those are two very different financial outcomes. And no matter how creatively California packages the financing, one rule of personal finance never changes. Borrowing more money doesn't make something cost less.

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