分析师表示，在两项晚期临床试验中出现令人失望的疗效结果后，诺华（Novartis AG）对其实验性多发性硬化症药丸约40亿美元的峰值销售预估可能过于乐观。
AG’s peak sales estimates of about $4 billion for its experimental multiple sclerosis pill may be too optimistic, analysts said, after disappointing efficacy results in two late-stage trials.
这家瑞士药企周五表示，名为雷米布替尼的药物在研究中预防复发的效果低于预期，这可能让竞争对手罗氏控股公司正在开发的治疗药物占据优势。
The Swiss drugmaker said Friday the medicine called remibrutinib prevented fewer relapses than expected in the studies, potentially giving rival Roche Holding AG an advantage with a treatment it’s developing.
周一苏黎世早盘交易中，诺华股价一度下跌2.1%，将今年以来的涨幅缩减至约16%。
Novartis shares fell as much as 2.1% in early Zurich trading on Monday, trimming this year’s gain to about 16%.
巴克莱分析师詹姆斯·戈登及其同事在研报中将该药物用于多发性硬化症的峰值年销售预估从50亿美元下调至35亿美元。他们表示，诺华的预测“恐怕有点勉强”。“两项关键疗效指标的数据均略低于我们的预期，我们认为也低于投资者的预期。”在研究中，这种诺华药物——已以“Rhapsido”商品名上市用于治疗慢性荨麻疹——与赛诺菲的老牌药物Aubagio相比，将多发性硬化症年复发率分别降低了35%和31%。
Analysts at Barclays cut their peak annual sales estimate for the drug’s use in multiple sclerosis to $3.5 billion from $5 billion. Novartis’s forecast is probably “a stretch,” James Gordon and colleagues said in a note. “Data was a little below our, and we believe investor, expectations on both key efficacy metrics.”The Novartis medicine, which is already sold under the name Rhapsido to treat chronic hives, cut annual MS relapse rates by 35% and 31% compared with Sanofi’s older drug Aubagio in the studies.
这低于法国巴黎银行分析师预期的约50%降幅，也弱于罗氏实验性药物非布替尼在试验中显示的51%和59%的降幅。
That was below the roughly 50% reduction expected by analysts at BNP Paribas and weaker than the 51% and 59% reductions seen in trials of Roche’s experimental medicine, fenebrutinib.
不过，一些其他分析师对数据持更乐观态度，指出该药物具有更好的副作用特征，且无需监测肝脏安全性。
Still, some other analysts were more upbeat on the data, pointing to a better side effects profile without the need to monitor for liver safety.