印度有望在今年再延长两个月的免关税棉花进口，至12月止，三位政府和行业消息人士称，此举可能降低纺织厂成本，抑制国内价格，并提升来自美国、巴西和澳大利亚的进口。
India is expected to extend duty-free cotton imports for another two months through December, three government and industry sources said, in a move that could cut costs for textile mills, curb domestic prices and boost imports from the US, Brazil and Australia.
印度是仅次于中国的全球最大棉花生产国，自6月1日至10月31日免征11%的棉花进口关税，为期五个月，以在淡季期间提升供应。
India, the world's biggest cotton producer after China, waived the 11% customs duty on cotton imports for five months from June 1 through October 31 to boost supplies during the lean season.
国内价格通常在10月新季棉花到货后回落，但今年因产量前景下降而保持坚挺，促使纺织厂寻求更长的免关税进口窗口。
Domestic prices usually ease when new-season arrivals begin in October, but have remained firm this year amid lower output prospects, prompting mills to seek a longer duty-free import window.
熟悉此事的消息人士称，跨部门会商结束后，政府预计将很快发布命令，将免税期延长至至少12月底。财政部、商务部和纺织部未立即回复电子邮件置评请求。
After the completion of inter-ministerial consultations, the government is expected to issue an order soon extending the duty exemption at least until December end, said the sources familiar with the matter. The finance, commerce and textile ministries did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment.
分析人士表示，额外的进口可能支撑全球棉花价格，并帮助抑制国内价格，后者因季风雨不均导致作物前景受挫而上涨。
Analysts said additional imports could support global cotton prices and help curb domestic rates, which have risen after patchy monsoon rains cut crop prospects.
国内棉花价格已超过每100公斤9,000卢比（约94.80美元），高于政府为新季设定的底价8,717卢比。
Domestic cotton prices are above 9,000 rupees ($94.80) per 100 kg, higher than the government-set floor price of 8,717 rupees for the new season.
S&P Global首席分析师Dipanshi Agarwal称，国内产量下降、约31%的库存使用比——为五年来最低水平——以及强劲的纺织需求，使延长免税政策的理由更加充分。但她指出，这可能对国内价格产生压力。
Lower domestic output, a tight stock-to-use ratio of about 31% — its lowest level in five years — and strong textile demand supported the case for extending the duty exemption, said Dipanshi Agarwal, principal analyst at S&P Global. However, it could weigh on domestic prices, she said.
根据贸易估计，印度2026-27年度的棉花产量可能跌破2,900万包，而需求超过3,400万包。
India's cotton output is likely to fall below 29 million bales in 2026-27, against demand of more than 34 million bales, according to trade estimates.
由于缺乏新型升级，农民仍使用过时的转基因棉种，使作物易受虫害侵袭，产量下降。
In the absence of newer upgrades, farmers use outdated genetically modified cotton seeds, leaving the crop vulnerable to pest attacks and lower yields.
一家全球贸易行的交易员表示，美国棉花基准期货价格走高、在每磅83美分以上交易，加之运费高企和卢比走弱，即便免税窗口期延长，也可能限制大规模进口。
Higher benchmark US cotton futures , trading above 83 cents per pound, elevated freight costs and a weaker rupee could limit large imports even if the duty-free window is extended, said a dealer with a global trading house.
印度贸易部的数据显示，本财年从4月起的头六个月，印度棉花进口同比增长63%，达到11亿美元。
India's cotton imports rose 63% year-on-year to $1.1 billion during the first six months of the current fiscal year from April, trade ministry data showed.
印度纺织工业联合会秘书长钱德里玛·查特吉表示，印度应延长取消进口税的期限，以帮助纺织业与越南和孟加拉国竞争；目前的进口税只会推高制造商的生产成本。
India should remove the import tax for an extended period, which has only raised manufacturers' production costs, to help the textile industry compete with Vietnam and Bangladesh, said Chandrima Chatterjee, secretary-general of the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry.