字号·· | 护眼
路透社

市场格局解析:纳斯达克正失去对涨势的掌控Mapping the Market: Nasdaq losing its grip on rally

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

2026年10月15日,美国纽约市,纳斯达克市场站点外的屏幕上显示着交易信息。路透社/香农·斯塔普尔顿A screen displays trading information outside the Nasdaq Market site in New York City, US, October 15, 2026. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

纳斯达克综合指数正在其历史高位附近交易,但已有数月未见起色。技术分析显示,图表近期也出现了一些令人担忧的迹象。点击此处查看详细的技术分析图表。

The Nasdaq Composite is trading near its record high, but it has gone nowhere for months. It has also lately shown some troubling signs in the charts, technical analysis suggests. Click here for a detailed technical analysis chart.

技术分析利用过去价格走势的图表来推断市场下一步可能的走向。分析师会寻找支撑位,即下跌时为价格提供托底的“地板”;也会寻找压力位,即可能限制涨幅的“天花板”。

Technical analysis uses charts of past price moves to map out where a market might go next. Analysts look for support, which is a floor for prices during a slide. They also look for resistance, which is a ceiling that can cap gains.

移动平均线在这一搜寻过程中特别有用。它们通过计算设定周期(如50天、100天或200天)内的平均价格来平滑价格波动。因为它们持续更新,所以会随市场上下移动。之前的高点和低点也可能转化为支撑位或压力位。

Moving averages are particularly useful in this search. They smooth out price swings by averaging prices over a set period, such as 50, 100 or 200 days. Because they update continuously, they rise and fall with the market. Previous highs and lows can also become support or resistance.

另一个工具是斐波那契回撤。这是一种数学计算,标示出市场在经历大幅波动后常会回调至的百分比位置。

Another tool is the Fibonacci retracement. It is a mathematical calculation that marks the percentages a market often pulls back to after a big move.

纳斯达克综合指数周五收于25,955.34点,低于其50天和100天移动平均线(分别约为26,599点和26,254点)。根据LSEG提供的数据,该指数还面临失守两个支撑位的风险:一是3月至10月涨幅的23.6%斐波那契回撤位26,063点,二是9月16日低点25,802.96点。这两个位置至关重要,因为该指数在10月中期抛售期间曾守住这两个位置之上。

The Nasdaq ended Friday at 25,955.34, which has it below both its 50- and 100-day moving averages near 26,599 and 26,254. It is also in danger of losing support levels at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-October advance at 26,063, as well as the September 16 low at 25,802.96, according to data supplied by LSEG. Both levels matter because the index held above them during the mid-October selloff.

如果指数进一步下跌,图表分析师将关注甘氏线提供的支撑。这些是基于时间与价格关系、通过数学生成的对角线。在这种情况下,是一条位于25,500点附近的上升周甘氏线。

If the index falls further, chart watchers will focus on support from Gann lines. These are mathematically generated diagonal lines based on the relationship between time and price. In this case, it is a rising weekly Gann line near 25,500.

在此之下,长期支撑位在25,000点附近形成密集区。其中包括3月至10月涨幅的38.2%斐波那契回撤位、6月低点以及200天移动平均线。跌至该区域将使纳斯达克指数较历史收盘高点下跌逾9%。

Below that, a cluster of longer-term support converges around 25,000. It includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-October rally, the June low and the 200-day moving average. A decline to that area would put the Nasdaq down just over 9% from its record close.

如果买方能够积聚动能,他们首先需要收复100日和50日移动平均线。根据伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)提供的数据,上周三的盘中最高价——即当日交易时段内触及的最高价——为26,779点。在此之后,交易者可能将关注6月1日的盘中高点27,190点,随后再看向10月的历史最高纪录。图表显示:

If buyers can build momentum, they will first need to reclaim the 100- and 50-day moving averages. Last Wednesday's intraday high, the highest price reached during that day's trading, was 26,779, according to data supplied by LSEG. Beyond that, traders may focus on the June 1 intraday high at 27,190 before turning to the October record peak. What the chart shows:

阅读媒体原文 ↗