印度购物中心正准备迎来数年来最快的扩张步伐，未来两个财年新增零售面积预计将翻一番多。这种加速扩张可能为购物中心运营商带来新的收入增长点，同时也为依赖客流量上升和消费支出增加的零售商及餐饮服务公司创造机会。
India’s shopping malls are gearing up for their fastest expansion in years, with new retail space set to more than double over the next two fiscals. The ramp-up could give mall operators a fresh revenue boost, while creating opportunities for retailers and food-service companies that depend on rising footfalls and consumer spending.
据Crisil Ratings（克瑞尔评级）的一份报告，与前两个财年新增面积相比，该机构追踪的购物中心零售面积预计将在2026-27财年（FY27）和2027-28财年（FY28）期间扩大450万至500万平方英尺。
According to a report by Crisil Ratings, retail area across the malls it tracks is expected to expand by 4.5-5 million square feet over FY27 and FY28, compared with the addition recorded in the preceding two fiscals.
该分析涵盖分布在11个一线和二线城市的44家A级购物中心，合计零售面积约3700万平方英尺，占印度A级购物中心总存量的近一半。
The analysis covers 44 Grade A malls across 11 Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, with a combined retail area of around 37 million square feet, representing nearly half of India’s Grade A mall stock.
预计扩张将转化为更快的收入增长。购物中心运营商收入预计下一财年将增长14%-16%，高于本财年预期的10%-11%增幅。其中近三分之二的增长可能来自新增面积，其余部分则由现有购物中心的租金上涨和消费增长支撑。
The expansion is expected to translate into faster revenue growth. Mall operators’ revenue is projected to rise 14-16% next fiscal, up from the 10-11% growth expected this fiscal. Nearly two-thirds of that growth is likely to come from newly added space, with the rest supported by rental increases and consumption at existing malls.
“预租是应对快速扩张通常带来的出租率压力的关键缓冲垫。”Crisil Ratings总监Ankush Tyagi（安库什·蒂亚吉）表示。
Preleasing is the key cushion against the occupancy pressure that typically accompanies rapid expansionANKUSH TYAGI, DIRECTOR AT CRISIL RATINGSAround 70% of the space scheduled to come onstream this fiscal has already been preleased, the report said.
报告称，本财年即将投入运营的面积中，约70%已完成预租。这有助于新购物中心更快投入运营，使投资组合出租率在本财年和下一财年维持在93%-94%，而目前为95%-96%。
This should help new malls ramp up operations faster, keeping portfolio occupancy at 93-94% over the current and next fiscals, compared with 95-96% at present.
展望显示，上市购物中心业主及零售物业运营商如Phoenix Mills（凤凰磨坊）、Nexus Select Trust（奈克瑟斯精选信托）和DLF等可能迎来利好，其关键驱动因素为租金收入、出租率及新资产增加。Prestige Estates（普瑞斯蒂地产）因其零售物业敞口也是值得关注的标的。
The outlook points to a potential tailwind for listed mall owners and retail property operators such as Phoenix Mills, Nexus Select Trust and DLF, where rental income, occupancy and the addition of new assets are key drivers. Prestige Estates is another name to watch for its retail property exposure.
在面向消费者的业务方面，Trent 和 Shoppers Stop 可能受益于更广泛的有组织零售网络，而 Devyani International 和 Jubilant FoodWorks 则提供了对餐饮消费的敞口。然而，影响因公司而异：商场业主通过租金和出租率更直接地获益，而零售商和餐饮运营商则需要更强劲的门店销售和客流量，才能将扩张转化为盈利增长。
On the consumer-facing side, Trent and Shoppers Stop could benefit from a wider organised retail footprint, while Devyani International and Jubilant FoodWorks offer exposure to food and beverage spending. However, the impact will vary by company: mall owners stand to gain more directly through rentals and occupancy, while retailers and restaurant operators will need stronger store sales and footfalls to translate the expansion into earnings growth.
租金上涨增加了增长机会。新增空间只是故事的一部分。现有商场的消费保持健康，支撑了分成收入，这占商场运营商总收入的 10%-15%。尽管存在地缘政治不确定性和干扰，本财年第一季度商场消费仍录得双位数增长，增长分布在服装、珠宝、电子产品、餐饮和娱乐等各品类。
Rental increases add to the growth opportunityNew space is only part of the story. Consumption at existing malls has remained healthy, supporting revenue-share income, which accounts for 10-15% of mall operators’ overall revenue. Mall consumption recorded double-digit growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal despite geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions, with growth spread across categories such as apparel, jewellery, electronics, food and beverages, and entertainment.
稳健的消费者支出还可能在租约到期续签时增强房东的议价能力。商场运营商约 25% 的面积将在本财年和下一财年到期续签，这在合同约定的递增租金之外，创造了按市场价调整租金获利的空间。
Steady consumer spending could also strengthen landlords’ bargaining power when leases come up for renewal. Around 25% of mall operators’ area is due for renewal over the current and next fiscals, creating scope for mark-to-market rental gains alongside contractual escalations.
资本支出增加，但信用状况预计保持稳定。扩张将需要大幅增加投资。
Higher capex, but credit profiles expected to remain stableThe expansion will require a substantial increase in investment.
Crisil Ratings 预计，商场运营商在本财年和下一财年将在资本支出上投入约 5000 亿至 5500 亿卢比，是前两年约 2500 亿卢比投入的两倍多。
Crisil Ratings expects mall operators to spend around ₹5,000-5,500 crore on capital expenditure over the current and next fiscals, more than double the roughly ₹2,500 crore spent in the preceding two years.
由于预计投资将以 1:1 的债务与股权比例融资，债务预计将在下一财年增长逾 20%，达到约 1.7 万亿卢比。
With the investment expected to be funded through debt and equity in a 1:1 ratio, debt is projected to rise by more than 20% to around ₹17,000 crore by next fiscal.
Crisil Ratings 副总监 PRANAV SHANDIL 表示：“如果盈利保持同步，更高的债务不一定会转化为更弱的信用状况。”
他补充称，现有商场的租金增长以及新资产带来的增量收益应能支持 EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）与借款同步增长。
Higher debt need not translate into weaker credit profiles if earnings keep pacePRANAV SHANDIL, ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR AT CRISIL RATINGSHe added that rental growth at existing malls and incremental earnings from new assets should support EBITDA growth in line with borrowings.
报告称，因此，债务与 EBITDA 比率预计在下一财年将大体维持在 3.1 至 3.3 倍的稳定水平，而上一财年为 3.1 倍。
As a result, the debt-to-EBITDA ratio is expected to remain broadly stable at 3.1-3.3 times through next fiscal, compared with 3.1 times last fiscal, the report said.
不过，这种平衡并非有保证。大规模债务融资收购可能推高杠杆率，而利率大幅上升可能增加借贷成本，并拖累可自由支配支出、商场消费和租金增长。
The balance, however, is not guaranteed. Large debt-funded acquisitions could push leverage higher, while a sharp rise in interest rates could increase borrowing costs and weigh on discretionary spending, mall consumption and rental growth.
对于投资者而言，扩张周期提供了一种途径，既可通过物业所有者，也可通过面向消费者的企业来追踪更广泛的消费故事。关键在于区分那些直接通过租金将额外商场面积变现的公司，与那些需要更高客流量转化为更强销售和利润的公司。
For investors, the expansion cycle offers a way to track the broader consumption story through both property owners and consumer-facing businesses. The key will be to distinguish companies that directly monetise additional mall space through rentals from those that need higher footfalls to translate into stronger sales and profits.