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德国之声

乌克兰为何可能卷入马里冲突Why Ukraine may be involved in Mali's conflict

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越来越多的迹象显示,乌克兰正在向马里的图阿雷格叛军和圣战分子提供军事支持。图片来源:苏莱曼·阿格·阿纳拉/法新社There are growing indications that Ukraine is providing military support to Tuareg rebels and jihadists in Mali Image: Souleymane Ag Anara/AFP

有关乌克兰专家支持马里图阿雷格叛军的指控,凸显了基辅方面试图在欧洲战场之外挑战俄罗斯影响力的努力。

Allegations that Ukrainian specialists are supporting Tuareg rebels in Mali highlight Kyiv's effort to challenge Russian influence far beyond the battlefield in Europe.

越来越多的迹象显示,乌克兰正在向马里的图阿雷格叛军和圣战分子提供军事支持。乌克兰正在对抗俄罗斯——而这场冲突可能延伸至非洲萨赫勒地区。根据美国媒体CNN本月发布的一项调查,据称约有15名乌克兰无人机专家正在支持马里北部的图阿雷格叛军。他们共同的敌人是:巴马科的军政府及其俄罗斯盟友。但这些信息的可靠性如何?基辅介入非洲可能付出怎样的代价?

There are growing indications that Ukraine is providing military support to Tuareg rebels and jihadists in Mali Ukraine is fighting Russia— and the conflict may extend into Africa's Sahel region According to an investigation published by US media outlet CNN this month, around 15 Ukrainian drone specialists are reportedly supporting Tuareg rebels in northern Mali. Their common enemy: the military government in Bamako and its Russian allies. But how reliable is the information? And what price could Kyiv pay for engaging in Africa?

乌克兰国立基辅莫希拉学院非洲研究项目协调员玛尔塔·奥利尼克-焦莫奇科认为存在战略动机。“乌克兰的主要利益是削弱俄罗斯在世界各地的影响力,”她告诉德国之声。她补充说,如果俄罗斯的军事影响力被击退,由此产生的经济机会也会随之减少。

Marta Oliynyk-D'omochko, coordinator of the African Studies Program at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, sees a strategic motive. "Ukraine's main interest is to weaken Russia's influence around the world," she told DW. If Russia's military influence were rolled back, she added, the economic opportunities arising from it would also diminish.

俄罗斯历史学家、南非夸祖鲁-纳塔尔大学荣休教授伊琳娜·菲拉托娃也认为乌克兰对图阿雷格运动的支持是可信的。不过,她表示自己没有独立证据来证实这种介入。

Russian historian Irina Filatova, professor emeritus at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, also considers Ukrainian support for the Tuareg movement plausible. However, she says she has no independent evidence to confirm such involvement.

基辅据称的合作伙伴颇具争议。图阿雷格分离主义组织阿扎瓦德解放阵线与与基地组织有关联的圣战组织“支持伊斯兰与穆斯林组织”(JNIM)合作。相关怀疑可追溯至2024年。2024年7月,德国之声曾报道乌克兰军事情报部门(HUR)可能参与了在马里北部廷扎瓦滕附近对俄罗斯瓦格纳战斗人员的一次伏击。

Kyiv's alleged partners are controversial. The Tuareg separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) cooperates with the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) a jihadist group affiliated with al-Qaeda Suspicions dating back to 2024 In July 2024, DW reported on possible involvement by the Ukrainian military intelligence service (HUR) in an ambush on Russian Wagner fighters near Tinzaouaten in northern Mali.

当时,HUR发言人安德里·尤索夫表示,图阿雷格叛军已获得实施袭击所需的情报。乌克兰否认直接参与。

At the time, HUR spokesperson Andriy Yusov said the Tuareg rebels had received information they needed to carry out the attack. Ukraine denied direct involvement.

非洲的圣战组织及其关联(观看视频),以及俄罗斯瓦格纳集团的准军事人员与马里军队在2024年7月的袭击中遭受重大损失。

Jihadist groups in Africa and their links To view this video , and Paramilitaries from Russia's Wagner Group and Malian troops suffered heavy losses in the July 2024 attack.

CNN的调查再次引发了这样一个问题:俄乌战争是否也在非洲土地上展开。

CNN's investigation has reignited the question of whether the Russia-Ukraine war is also being fought on African soil.

来自基辅的信号,但未获证实。这些怀疑因基里洛·布达诺夫在X上的一则帖子而再度升温。这位乌克兰军事情报机构前负责人、现任总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的幕僚长于9月7日写道,乌克兰情报部门在世界各地保护国家利益——“从俄罗斯到非洲……在灼热的沙漠中,在冰冷南极洲的冰雪中……”。

Signals from Kyiv, but no confirmation The suspicions were renewed by a post on X by Kyrylo Budanov The former head of Ukraine's military intelligence, now chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wrote on September 7 that Ukrainian intelligence protects the country's interests worldwide — "from Russia to Africa … in the burning desert sands and in the snows of icy Antarctica...".

布达诺夫并未明确提及马里,他的帖子也未证实任何具体行动。CNN报道称,乌克兰人提供了无人机训练、行动规划以及无人机任务的远程支持。德国之声尚未独立核实这些说法。

Budanov did not explicitly mention Mali and his post does not confirm any specific operation. CNN reported that the Ukrainians provided drone training, operational planning and remote support for drone missions. DW has not independently verified those claims.

德国之声联系了乌克兰国防部情报总局(HUR)请求置评。德国之声希望了解的事项包括:是否已向马里部署人员、政治领导层是否批准了此类任务,以及采取了哪些措施确保与“支持伊斯兰与穆斯林组织”(JNIM)合作的“阿扎瓦德解放阵线”(FLA)不会间接从乌克兰的支持中获益。

DW reached out to the HUR for comment. Among other things, DW wanted to know whether personnel had been deployed to Mali, whether the political leadership had approved such a mission, and what measures were in place to ensure that the JNIM — which cooperates with the FLA — does not indirectly benefit from Ukrainian support.

德国之声未收到具体答复。HUR的一位发言人表示,该机构可能在稍后提供信息。因此,乌克兰潜在介入的程度仍不清楚。

DW did not receive a specific response. An HUR spokesperson said the agency might provide information at a later date. The extent of any potential Ukrainian involvement therefore remains unclear.

马里为何对基辅重要。在2020年和2021年的军事政变之后,马里日益疏远西方伙伴,转向俄罗斯。随着莫斯科重组其军事存在,瓦格纳集团随后于2025年被非洲军团取代。

Why Mali matters to Kyiv Following military coups in 2020 and 2021, Mali increasingly turned away from Western partners and toward Russia. The Wagner Group was subsequently replaced by the Africa Corps in 2025 as Moscow reorganized its military presence.

俄罗斯一直寻求巩固其在萨赫勒地区的影响力,并将自身塑造成可靠的安全伙伴。

Russia has sought to consolidate its influence in the Sahel region and present itself as a reliable security partner.

康拉德·阿登纳基金会前马里萨赫勒项目负责人、现任该基金会叙利亚和伊拉克项目负责人的乌尔夫·莱辛表示,俄罗斯正在继续扩大其在非洲的活动。

Ulf Laessing, former head of the Sahel program of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali and now head of Konrad's Syria and Iraq program, says Russia is continuing to expand its activities in Africa.

莱辛对德国之声说:“我收到的信息显示,非洲军团仍将叙利亚和利比亚作为从俄罗斯起飞的航班的过境点,包括进行加油和装载,以支持其在非洲大陆的行动。”瓦格纳集团的叛乱会如何影响非洲?

"I have received information that the Africa Corps still uses Syria and Libya as transit points for flights from Russia, including for refueling and loading, to support its operations on the continent," Laessing told DW. How could Wagner Group revolt impact Africa?

从乌克兰的角度来看,对俄罗斯在非洲的部队施加压力可能具有吸引力。菲拉托娃认为这其中存在战略逻辑:“乌克兰人将世界任何地方的俄罗斯军队都视为合法目标。”她认为,马里受挫可能会牵制俄罗斯的资源,并损害莫斯科作为安全伙伴的声誉。

From Ukraine's perspective, it could be attractive to exert pressure on Russian forces in Africa Filatova sees a strategic logic to this: "The Ukrainians regard Russian troops anywhere in the world as legitimate targets." Setbacks in Mali could tie up Russian resources and undermine Moscow's reputation as a security partner, she argued.

然而,奥利尼克-焦莫奇科强调,与图阿雷格人的关系并非全面联盟。阿扎瓦德解放阵线并不寻求取代巴马科政府。相反,它专注于马里北部,追求自决或广泛自治。

However, Oliynyk-D'omochko stresses that the relationship with the Tuareg is not a comprehensive alliance. The FLA is not seeking to replace the government in Bamako. Instead, it is focused on northern Mali and is pursuing self-determination or extensive autonomy.

奥利尼克-焦莫奇科将这种关系描述为一种战术安排:“这更像是一种针对共同敌人的情境性联盟,而非全面伙伴关系。”与圣战分子的联盟——阿扎瓦德解放阵线正在为在马里北部建立一个独立国家而战,该地区主要居住着图阿雷格人。相比之下,支持伊斯兰与穆斯林组织旨在实施严格的伊斯兰统治。这两个组织都反对军政府及其俄罗斯盟友,但它们的目标不同。

Oliynyk-D'omochko describes the relationship as a tactical arrangement: "It is more of a situational alliance against a common enemy than a comprehensive partnership." The alliance with jihadists The FLA is fighting for an independent state in the north of Mali, a region predominantly inhabited by Tuaregs. JNIM, by contrast, aims to impose strict Islamic rule. Both groups oppose the military government and its Russian allies, but their objectives differ.

乌克兰对阿扎瓦德解放阵线的任何潜在支持本身并不能证明基辅直接支持支持伊斯兰与穆斯林组织。然而,如果圣战分子与阿扎瓦德解放阵线开展联合行动,或获得知识和装备,他们可能会间接受益。图阿雷格人与伊斯兰组织之间的合作可以追溯到十多年前。

Any potential Ukrainian support for the FLA would not, in itself, prove that Kyiv is directly supporting JNIM. However, jihadists could benefit indirectly if they conduct joint operations with FLA or gain access to knowledge and equipment. Cooperation between Tuareg and Islamist groups dates back more than a decade.

2011年10月阿拉伯之春期间,利比亚长期独裁者穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲被推翻并遭杀害后,全副武装的图阿雷格武装分子返回马里,投身于争取独立国家的斗争。在这一过程中,分离主义野心与伊斯兰主义运动交织在一起。

After the ousting and killing of Libya's longtime dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi during the Arab Spring in October 2011, heavily armed Tuareg fighters returned to Mali and took up the struggle for an independent state. In the process, separatist ambitions became intertwined with Islamist movements.

JNIM现任领导人伊亚德·阿格·加利本人曾参与图阿雷格叛乱,后来转向圣战主义。

Iyad Ag Ghaly the current leader of JNIM, was himself involved in the Tuareg rebellion before turning to jihadism.

据奥利尼克-焦莫奇科称,这种合作主要属于战术性质。双方在过去的起义中曾有过合作,但后来反目。目前尚不清楚当前的联盟能持续多久。

According to Oliynyk-D'omochko, the cooperation is primarily tactical in nature. The two sides have collaborated during past uprisings but later fell out. It remains unclear how long the current alliance will last.

对基辅而言,这也构成政治风险。在许多非洲国家,图阿雷格人被视为分离主义者。因此,与他们合作可能造成乌克兰干涉他国内政的印象。

For Kyiv, this also poses a political risk. In many African countries, the Tuaregs are viewed as separatists. Cooperation with them could therefore create the impression that Ukraine is interfering in another country's internal affairs.

支持武装组织的指控 马里、尼日尔、布基纳法索指责乌克兰支持武装组织并威胁其领土完整。这三个萨赫勒国家均由军政府统治,它们已与基辅断绝外交关系,并加深了与俄罗斯的合作。

Claims of support for armed groups Mali Niger Burkina Faso accuse Ukraine of supporting armed groups and threatening their territorial integrity. The three Sahel nations, all ruled by military governments, have severed diplomatic relations with Kyiv and deepened their cooperation with Russia.

据法新社报道,9月,马里外交部长阿卜杜拉耶·迪奥普在联合国指责乌克兰“向恐怖组织及其他类似黑手党的团体提供明确而公开的支持,以破坏我国领土完整”。迪奥普未为其说法提供证据。

In September, Mali's Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop accused Ukraine at the United Nations of "providing clear and open support to terrorist groups and other mafia-like groups to undermine our country's territorial integrity," reported Agence France-Presse. Diop did not provide evidence for his claim.

这三国政府可能有兴趣使其与莫斯科的伙伴关系合法化,并将基辅描绘为破坏稳定的行为者。

The three nations' governments have may have an interest in legitimizing their partnership with Moscow and portraying Kyiv as a destabilizing actor.

菲拉托娃认为乌克兰在该地区的活动是可信的,但表示她没有证据证实这些指控。

Filatova considers Ukrainian activities in the region plausible but says she has no evidence to substantiate the accusations.

奥利伊尼克-多莫奇科同样未发现确凿证据。与此同时,她警告称这可能对乌克兰的非洲政策产生后果:基辅主张与非洲国家建立平等伙伴关系。任何涉嫌与分离主义者合作的行为都可能削弱这一信息,并影响潜在合作伙伴对乌克兰的看法。乌克兰可能付出什么代价?

Oliynyk-D'omochko has likewise found no definitive proof. At the same time, she warns of the potential consequences for Ukraine's Africa policy: Kyiv advocates equal partnerships with African countries. Any alleged cooperation with separatists could undermine that message and affect how potential partners view Ukraine. What price could Ukraine pay?

在马里的行动可能为乌克兰提供一种相对低成本的方式,在欧洲以外削弱俄罗斯利益。一支小型专家团队可以训练当地战士,提升他们使用无人机的能力。

Engagement in Mali could offer Ukraine a relatively low-cost way to weaken Russian interests beyond Europe. A small team of specialists could train local fighters and improve their capabilities in the use of drones.

但与“阿扎瓦德解放阵线”建立潜在伙伴关系存在政治风险。因为图阿雷格分离主义者与“伊斯兰和穆斯林支持团”合作,基辅可能面临间接支持伊斯兰武装分子的指责。这可能削弱乌克兰加强与非洲国家关系的努力。马里押注俄罗斯的大赌注为何适得其反 本文译自德语

But a potential partnership with the FLA carries political risks. Because the Tuareg separatists cooperate with the JNIM, Kyiv could face accusations of indirectly supporting Islamist fighters. That could undermine Ukraine's efforts to strengthen its relations with African countries. How Mali's big bet on Russia is backfiring This article has been translated from German

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