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乔什·布朗:Meta已接近关键点位,他将如何交易这家科技巨头Josh Brown says Meta is near crucial levels. How he's trading the tech giant

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发布于 2026 年 10 月 26 日周一 上午 11:10 EDT(这是《市场上最好的股票》,由 Ritholtz Wealth Management 的 Josh Brown 和 Sean Russo 为您呈现。)Josh —— 我们在 9 月撰写的两只股票今天重回专栏。Meta Platforms (META) 运营 Facebook 和 Instagram。Cloudflare (NET) 运营一个全球网络,并在其之上销售安全和开发者工具。

Published Mon, Oct 26 2026 11:10 AM EDT (This is The Best Stocks in the Market , brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Josh — Two names we wrote up in September are back in today's column. Meta Platforms (META) runs Facebook and Instagram. Cloudflare (NET) runs a global network and sells security and developer tools on top of it.

我们在发布当天为每只股票都给出了一个交易者关注位和一个投资者关注位。以下是它们目前的情况。并非每个条目在几周后随着消息传出、市场变化仍显得美观。我们在制定设定时就接受这一点,这是股票市场体验中固有且不可避免的一部分。任何告诉你不是这样的人都在撒谎。我们撰写 Meta 时它看起来很棒,随后公司发布财报,情况发生了变化。

Each came with a level for traders and a level for investors the day we published. Here's where they stand. Not every entry looks good a few weeks later as news hits the tape and markets shift. We accept that going into our set-ups as being an endemic and unavoidable part of the equity market experience. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. Meta looked great when we wrote it up and then things changed when the company reported earnings.

我们不会逃避、隐瞒此类事件,假装从未发生。我们利用它们来强化管理风险、在趋势改变或实地事实不再支持时保持灵活的必要性。Cloudflare 的情况不同。我们于 9 月 21 日撰写了它,而当软件板块本月遭遇打击时,买家立即重新介入。Sean 将带来惯例的周一早盘精选亮点。我将随后带来一些技术评论和风险管理内容。

We don't run and hide from episodes like this one, pretending it never happened. We use them to reinforce the necessity of managing risk and being flexible when the trend changes or the facts on the ground are no longer supportive. Cloudflare is a different story. We wrote it up on Sept. 21, and when software got hit this month, buyers stepped right back in. Sean's got the usual Monday morning highlights from the list. I'll be back with some technical commentary and risk management.

截至 10 月 26 日,《市场上最好的股票》名单上共有 152 只股票。板块排名靠前:行业排名靠前:相对强度排名前 5 的最佳股票:聚焦:META 和 NET 表现整理 Meta Platforms, Inc. (META):Sean —— 我们于 9 月 28 日撰写了 Meta,当时正值 Muse 发布之后,股价为 752 美元,较 8 月低点上涨 38%。我们表示,Muse 是迄今为止人工智能支出转化为可用产品的最清晰证据。

As of Oct 26, there are 152 names on The Best Stocks in the Market list. Top sector ranking: Top industries: Top 5 best stocks by relative strength: Spotlight: META and NET Clean Up Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Sean — We wrote about Meta on Sept. 28 , right after the Muse launch, with the stock at $752 and up 38% from its August low. We said Muse was the clearest evidence yet that the artificial intelligence spending was turning into a usable product.

自那时起 META 回报为 -14.5%,而标普 500 指数为 -1.5%。它于 10 月 13 日触及 762.50 美元高点,现报 643 美元。Meta 于 10 月 21 日发布 Q3 财报,市场反应好坏参半。

META has returned -14.5% since, against -1.5% for the S & P 500. It topped out at $762.50 on Oct. 13 and now trades at $643. Meta reported Q3 earnings on Oct. 21, and the reactions have been mixed.

营收增长26%至646亿美元,高于分析师预期的633亿美元,第四季度营收指引为730亿至760亿美元,而市场预期为737.5亿美元。由于计提98.9亿美元的州检察长和解费用,运营利润下降37%至130亿美元。剔除该项费用后,运营利润增长11%,每股收益为7.40美元。管理层表示,美国和加拿大有超过1000万人在六周内设置了Muse代理,完全符合预期。

Revenue grew 26% to $64.6 billion, above the $63.3 billion analysts expected, and Q4 revenue was guided to $73 billion to $76 billion against $73.75 billion expected. Operating income fell 37% to $13.0 billion because of a $9.89 billion charge for the state attorneys general settlement. Excluding it, operating income grew 11% and EPS was $7.40. Management said more than 10 million people in the U.S. and Canada set up Muse agents in six weeks, exactly what we expected.

问题出在现金流上。第三季度资本支出为349亿美元,全年指引调整为1350亿至1450亿美元(下限上调50亿美元)。自由现金流为负21亿美元,而去年同期为正106亿美元,这是Meta自2012年以来首个自由现金流为负的季度。我当时14岁,天哪。Meta还创设了无投票权的C类股,这为其筹集资金用于部署提供了更大空间。

The problem was cash flow. Q3 capex was $34.9 billion and full-year guidance moved to $135 billion-145 billion (low end up $5 billion). Free cash flow was negative $2.1 billion versus positive $10.6 billion a year ago, making this the first quarter of negative free cash flow for META since 2012. I was 14 years old, yikes. Meta also created a non-voting Class C share class, which gives it more room to raise capital for deployment.

股价盘后一度上涨高达5%,随后在10月22日下跌7%,并迅速逼近关键风险水平,Josh将对此进行分析。

The stock was up as much as 5% after hours in response, then fell 7% on Oct. 22 and is quickly approaching crucial risk levels, which Josh is getting into here.

风险管理:Josh——根据我们在本专栏所做的工作,这不是一个很好的买入形态。然而,对于专注于估值指标等我们几乎完全忽略因素的投资者来说,这可能是一个很好的买入机会。从技术面来看,这张图表就像被装满羊肉烤肉卷的油腻纸袋狠狠甩在脸上。是的,它可能会急剧反转,以V型反弹抹平本月的跌幅。不,我不想押注这种情况发生。

Risk management: Josh — This is not a great set-up based on the work we do here in this column. However, it may be a great buy for investors who are focused on things like valuation metrics which we almost completely ignore. Technically, this chart is like getting smacked in the face with a greasy paper bag filled with lamb gyros. Yes, it could reverse hard and erase this month's losses in a V-shaped recovery. No, I don't want to bet on that happening.

我们在9月28日给出的交易止损位是685美元。股价在10月22日跳空低开跌破该位,开盘价为676美元,这正是止损单会成交的位置。如果你遵循了计划,你会在开盘时离场,随后股价收于649美元附近。这就是系统在发挥作用。股价曾在10月13日冲高至762美元,而Sean上文描述的财报后抛售使其跌破了50日均线,该均线现位于上方664美元处。

The trader stop we gave you on Sept. 28 was $685. The stock gapped down through it on Oct. 22 and opened at $676, which is where a stop order would have filled. If you followed the plan, you were out on the open before the stock closed near $649. That's the system doing its job. The stock ran to $762 on Oct. 13, and the post-earnings selling Sean described above took it through the 50-day, which now sits overhead at $664.

周五股价跌入 Muse 缺口,在 200 日均线处触及 633 美元低点,收于 643 美元。形态已破坏,股价必须收复 664 美元关口,局面才会改变。RSI 为 36,动能从 9 月下旬的 70 多点跌至 8 月低点以来最弱水平。短短约三周完成一次彻底冲洗,股价尚未显示出能止跌企稳。破位图表上的低位读数说明抛压沉重,但不代表抛售已尽。

On Friday it dipped into the Muse gap, found a low at $633 right on the 200-day, and closed at $643. The set-up is broken, and $664 is the level the stock has to take back before that changes. With RSI at 36, momentum has gone from the 70s in late September to its weakest reading since the August low. That's a full flush in about three weeks, and the stock hasn't shown it can stop falling yet. A low reading on a broken chart tells you the selling has been heavy. It doesn't tell you the selling is over.

此处没有新的交易机会。跟随 685 美元止损的交易者已离场,目前只能等待。投资者仍可锚定我们 9 月 28 日给出的 626 美元水位。股价目前在其上方约 3%,而 Muse 缺口底部 625 美元紧贴在下方。若周线收盘跌破 626 美元,缺口将彻底回补,200 日均线失守,旧有区间将重新掌控走势。

There's no new trade here. Traders who followed the $685 stop are already out and have nothing to do but wait. Investors can still anchor to the $626 level we gave you on Sept. 28. The stock is about 3% above it, and the bottom of the Muse gap at $625 sits right underneath. A weekly close below $626 and the gap is filled for good, the 200-day is gone, and the old range is back in charge.

Cloudflare, Inc. (NET):Sean —— 我们曾在 9 月 21 日的网络安全专栏中撰文介绍 Cloudflare。Josh 指出它并非纯粹的网络安全标的,但值得列入讨论,当时股价在 324 美元附近创新高,潜在突破正在进行。此后 NET 回报 0.7%,同期标普 500 指数下跌 0.2%,但过程颇为坎坷。股价于 10 月 9 日冲高至 361 美元,随后在 AI 及高估值软件股抛售中跌 19% 至 10 月 20 日的 292 美元。

Cloudflare, Inc. (NET): Sean — We wrote about Cloudflare on Sept. 21 in our cybersecurity column. Josh said it wasn't a pure cyber play but belonged in the conversation, with the stock at a new high near $324 and a potential breakout in progress. NET has returned 0.7% since, against -0.2% for the S & P 500, but the path was rough. It ran to $361 by Oct. 9, then fell 19% to $292 by Oct. 20 in a sell-off in AI and richly valued software.

Cloudflare 运营一张位于互联网与客户之间的全球网络,销售安全产品和开发者平台,让企业能在该网络上构建和运行应用。AI 概念体现在流量上。管理层称,Q2 非人类流量占网络流量的 50% 以上,每日 AI 代理请求同比激增逾 1,700%。估值是看空者最爱攻击的靶子。按今日 326 美元水平计,NET 市盈率约为今年非 GAAP 每股收益指引中值(1.25-1.26 美元)的 260 倍。Cloudflare 将于 11 月 5 日盘后发布 Q3 财报,以证明其估值名副其实。系好安全带。

Cloudflare runs a global network that sits between the internet and its customers. It sells security and a developer platform that lets companies build and run applications on that same network. The AI angle is traffic. Management said non-human traffic passed 50% of the network in Q2, with daily AI agent requests up more than 1,700% year over year. Valuation is what the bears love to point at for this stock. At today's $326 level, NET trades at roughly 260x the midpoint of this year's non-GAAP EPS guidance ($1.25-1.26). Cloudflare reports Q3 earnings on Nov. 5 after the close to prove the valuation is worth its weight. Buckle up.

风险管理:乔什——你什么时候逢低买入?当趋势在短期挫折后依然稳固,且买方让你知道他们仍在场时。这正是NET目前的情况,我来解释:自春季以来,Cloudflare一直在抬高低点和高点,50日移动均线全程在其下方上行。9月初的低点出现在270美元附近。10月的低点落在285美元,更高。10月的高点接近363美元,突破了此前所有峰值。

Risk management: Josh — When do you buy the dip? When the trend holds up despite a short-term setback and the buyers let you know they're still out there. That's what we have in NET right now, I will explain: Cloudflare has been making higher lows and higher highs since the spring, with the 50-day rising underneath it the whole way. The early September lows came in near $270. The October low came in at $285, higher. The October high near $363 cleared every peak before it.

肖恩上文描述的软件股抛售击中了一只处于上升趋势的股票,而趋势守住了。看看10月20日。该股跌破10月16日的低点,触及285美元,随后又收回到292美元,形成一根两侧长影线的十字星。这是对低点的拒绝。抛售在那里停止。次日收盘价高于该K线的顶部,周五7%的跳涨将股价推回319美元的50日移动均线上方,收于326美元,200日移动均线在245美元上行。

The software sell-off Sean described above hit a stock in an uptrend and the trend held. Look at Oct. 20. The stock traded down through the Oct. 16 low, hit $285, and closed right back at $292, a doji with long wicks on both sides. That's a rejection of the low. Selling stopped there. The next day closed above the top of that candle, and Friday's 7% jump took the stock back over the 50-day at $319 to close at $326, with the 200-day rising at $245.

我们喜欢这样。这是买方的韧性。363美元的高点是待突破的水平。RSI为51,动能从10月初的60多一路泄至底部的30出头,一周内又回到区间中部。价格守住了更高的低点,而动能完成重置,这正是你对一个仍然完好的趋势所期望的。这为冲击363美元留出了充足空间,而不必从一个过高的读数起步。健康!交易者可以将299美元作为止损位。

We like. That's buyer tenacity. The $363 high is the level to clear. With RSI at 51, momentum flushed from the 60s in early October into the low 30s at the bottom and is back in the middle of its range within a week. Price held its higher low while momentum reset, which is what you want from a trend that's still intact. That leaves plenty of room for a run at $363 without starting from a stretched reading. Healthy! Traders can use $299 as their stop.

那是10月20日十字星的顶部,是该股必须收于其上以确认抛售停止的水平。若收盘回落至其下方,确认即告失败。你能早早得到答案,在小亏变成大亏之前。投资者可以锚定285美元,即市场拒绝的低点,也是整个上升趋势所依托的更高低点。周线收于285美元下方将打破更高低点的序列。

That's the top of the Oct. 20 doji, the level the stock had to close above to confirm that selling had stopped. A close back below it and the confirmation failed. You get your answer early, before a small loss turns into a big one. Investors can anchor to $285, the low the market rejected and the higher low the whole uptrend rests on. A weekly close below $285 breaks the sequence of higher lows.

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