字号·· | 护眼
连线

Anthropic的IPO招股说明书为何缺失如此多关键数据Why Anthropic’s IPO Prospectus Is Missing So Many Key Figures

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

Anthropic 于周一提交了备受期待的首次公开募股(IPO)招股说明书,在其公开上市前披露了公司业务、战略和风险概况的部分内容。尽管这份被称为 S-1 的文件长达数百页,但存在一些显著的遗漏——即某些财务数据。

Anthropic filed its hotly anticipated IPO prospectus on Monday, spelling out parts of the company’s business, strategy, and risk profile ahead of its public debut. Though the filing, known as an S-1, is several hundred pages long, it has some notable omissions—namely, certain financial figures.

文件中写道:“Claude 经历了历史上任何技术中企业级采用速度最快的增长,这从收入在 2023 年第一季度商业发布时为 0 美元增长至 2026 年 9 月 30 日止三个月的 $_____ 即可证明。”这是数十处此类遗漏中的第一处。

“Claude has experienced the fastest enterprise adoption of any technology in history, as demonstrated by revenue growing from $0 at commercial launch in the first quarter of 2023 to $_____ for the three months ended September 30, 2026,” reads the first of dozens of such examples. It’s relatively common for companies to redact certain information in their S-1 filings, and Securities and Exchange Commission rules allow for a certain degree of leniency around the practice, particularly when it comes to information considered “confidential.”

公司在 S-1 文件中涂改某些信息的做法相对常见,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的规则对此允许一定程度的宽容,特别是涉及被视为“机密”的信息时。尽管如此,了解这些公司究竟决定隐瞒什么内容仍然有帮助。就 Anthropic 而言,缺失的细节主要集中在其最近一个季度(于 9 月底结束)的财务数据,以及与其算力投资相关的租赁协议上。

Still, it’s helpful to know what, exactly, these companies decide to leave out. In Anthropic’s case, the missing details largely revolve around financials for its most recent quarter, which concluded at the end of September, and lease agreements tied to its compute investments.

专家预计,许多细节将在 Anthropic 上市前披露,但目前的缺失可能暗示了投资人工智能的不确定性,因为公司正努力确保获得足够的算力。Anthropic 未回应置评请求。

While experts expect many details to be disclosed before Anthropic goes public, their current absence may hint at the uncertainties of investing in artificial intelligence, as companies work to secure sufficient compute. Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment.

布法罗大学管理学院会计与法律教授迈克尔·丹布拉告诉《连线》杂志,其第三季度数据缺失有“实际原因”:9月30日仅过去几周,“为这样规模的公司结账需要时间”。公司也可能因注册声明中的错报承担责任,“因此在数据完全经过审核前,有强烈动机不发布数字”,丹布拉说。他表示,美国证监会(SEC)规则要求,如果公司在11月中旬左右之后上市,“Anthropic 将需要用第三季度财务数据更新申报文件”。

Michael Dambra, accounting and law professor at University at Buffalo School of Management, tells WIRED that there are “practical reasons” for its third quarter numbers to be absent: September 30 was only a few weeks ago, and “closing the books for a company of this size takes time.”Companies can also be liable for misstatements in their registration statements, “so there is a strong incentive not to publish numbers before they have been fully vetted,” Dambra says. SEC rules require that “Anthropic would need to update the filing with third-quarter financials” if the company goes public any later than about mid-November, he says.

关于数据中心租赁协议,扬斯顿州立大学会计教授埃里卡·诺伊曼表示,公司从“合同附件”中删除机密细节“并不罕见”,这些细节可能包括租赁条款。

As for data center lease agreements, Erica Neuman, an accounting professor at Youngstown State University, says it’s “not unusual” for companies to redact confidential details from “contract exhibits,” which could include lease terms.

不过,诺伊曼补充说,值得审视 Anthropic 的删除是否会阻碍投资者分析其财务义务,或使分析更加困难,以及这些义务是否可能影响公司现金流。

However, Neuman adds that it’s worth scrutinizing whether Anthropic’s redactions would prevent, or make it more difficult, for investors to analyze Anthropic’s financial obligations and whether they may impact the company’s cash flow.

根据 S-1 文件,Anthropic 的许多财务义务与算力相关,这是“我们业务中最重要的运营成本”。这也是公司的一个经营风险,文件从供给不足和过度投资两方面进行了阐述。(部分 AI 行业人士一直警告,芯片限制可能拖缓 AI 进展。)Anthropic 的招股说明书更强调过度投资的风险,称公司需要对算力资源进行前瞻性投资,这些投资乍看之下会显得“不负责任地巨大”。

Many of Anthropic’s financial obligations relate to compute, which is the “most significant operating cost in our business,” according to the S-1. It’s also a business risk for the company, and it’s laid out both in terms of undersupply and overinvestment. (Parts of the AI industry have been warning that chip constraints could slow the progress of AI.) Anthropic’s prospectus puts more emphasis on the risks of overinvestment, stating that the company needs to make forward investments in compute resources that will seem “irresponsibly large” at first glance.

Anthropic 解释称,芯片被视为来自多个战略合作伙伴的“单一、可互换的资源池”,这些合作伙伴包括亚马逊、谷歌、英伟达和 AMD。该公司指出,已签署合同,“总承诺支出超过 $____,其中绝大部分与算力和基础设施相关”。部分合同预计将在 2030 年 12 月前完成,其他合同可能延续至 2045 年。

Chips, Anthropic explains, are approached as a “single, fungible pool from multiple strategic partners,” including Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and AMD. The company notes that it has entered into contracts “with an aggregate committed spend of more than $____, substantially all of which is related to compute and infrastructure.”Some of these contracts are set to be completed before December of 2030, while others may extend through 2045.

尽管招股说明书提及了因土地和电力资源有限等因素导致的算力不确定性,但 Moor Insights & Strategy 首席执行官兼首席分析师 Patrick Moorhead 认为,投资者有权获得更多细节。

Though the prospectus touches on Anthropic’s compute uncertainties due to factors like limited land and power resources, Patrick Moorhead, CEO and chief analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy believes investors are owed more detail.

“关键在于分别描述各个领域问题发生的几率及影响。Anthropic 欠投资者更多信息,例如这些单个问题的概率,量化发生的百分比几率以及影响程度,”他对《连线》表示。“不能只说‘可能产生重大影响’。” Anthropic 确实在脚注中提供了一些引人注目的估算。自 2025 年 12 月 31 日以来,其已启动或修订了“算力和基础设施”租赁,涉及“未来最低付款义务”合计约 4170 亿美元。

“It’s about characterizing the odds and impact individually across each of the areas. Anthropic owes investors more information, such as a probability of these individual issues, characterizing the percentage chance and the degree of the impact,” he tells WIRED. “Not ‘could materially impact.’”Anthropic does provide some eye-catching estimates in footnotes. Since December 31, 2025, it has started or amended “compute and infrastructure” leases with “future minimum payment obligations” worth approximately $417 billion in aggregate.

自 6 月 30 日以来,又因基础设施协议新增了 2450 亿美元的未来付款义务。此外,还扩大了“若干现有商业协议”,但注明“尚未最终敲定”,这将带来额外 1250 亿至 1500 亿美元的义务。

Since June 30, it’s added another $245 billion to its future payment obligations, all related to infrastructure agreements. It also expanded “certain existing commercial agreements” that it caveats “have not yet been finalized,” for an additional $125 billion to $150 billion.

Anthropic 表示,若加上包含“最低不可撤销付款”的“短期”协议,还将增加 210 亿美元。合计来看,若履行所有这些承诺,其将至少欠下估计 8080 亿美元。

Include “short term” agreements with “minimum non-cancelable payments,” Anthropic says, and that’s another $21 billion. In total, it will owe, at minimum, an estimated $808 billion if it follows through on all of this.

追踪芯片行业的 Creative Strategies 首席执行官兼首席分析师 Ben Bajarin 表示,这很可能只是 Anthropic 招股说明书的初稿,他预计更新版将填补大量空白。

Ben Bajarin, chief executive and a principal analyst at Creative Strategies who tracks the chip industry, says that this is likely just the first draft of Anthropic’s prospectus, and that he expects a lot of gaps to be filled in an updated version.

尽管S-1文件涉黑处理很常见,Dambra将其描述为“具有争议性”。虽然公司可能会辩称,它们是在“保护专有信息”,但Dambra表示,怀疑论者指责它们“机会主义地”使用涉黑处理,以“避免披露政治或社会敏感信息”。不过,Dambra认为,涉黑处理信息可能会带来代价。他指出,S-1中存在涉黑处理的公司,在首次公开募股时也更有可能“低估”其股票价格。

Despite how common S-1 redactions are, Dambra describes them as “controversial.”While companies may argue that they’re “protecting proprietary information,” Dambra says that skeptics accuse them of using redactions “opportunistically” in order to “avoid disclosing politically or socially sensitive information.”However, Dambra argues that redacting information may come at a cost. He notes that companies with redactions in their S-1s were also more likely to “underprice” their shares at the initial public offering.

Dambra表示,当公司在S-1中涉黑处理信息时,它们通常明白自己在与外部投资者之间制造了一个“信息差距”。理解到投资者会以“怀疑”的态度看待这一差距,公司可能会倾向于通过设定较低的起始价格来“诱导”投资者参与首次公开募股。

When companies redact information in their S-1, Dambra says they typically understand that they’ve created an “information gap” between them and outside investors. Understanding that investors will treat this gap with “suspicion,” companies may feel inclined to “entice” them to participate in the IPO by setting a lower starting price.

目前尚不清楚Anthropic的开盘价最终会是多少,或者投资者如何解读该公司S-1中的涉黑处理。但根据Bajarin的说法,在根据芯片和基础设施获取情况来计算数字时,整个人工智能行业在某种程度上都是一片“空白”。所以,是的,这一切都是一种风险。

It’s unclear what Anthropic’s opening price may end up being, or how investors may be interpreting the redactions in the company’s S-1. But according to Bajarin, the whole AI industry is one form of “blank” or another when it comes to crunching the numbers based on access to chips and infrastructure right now. So, yes, it’s all a risk.

“所有这一切,”他说,“都只是表明,我们在企业采用人工智能市场方面还处于极其早期的阶段,而这个市场每年将超过3万亿美元,并且很可能还在增长。”

“All of this,” he says, “just shows how absurdly early we are in enterprise adoption of an AI market that will be more than $3 trillion yearly and likely growing.”

阅读媒体原文 ↗