想象一下20年后的黑石集团。有一点，我认为是毫无疑问的：人工智能在我们业务中占据的地位将比今天大得多。
Imagine Blackstone 20 years from now. One thing, I believe, is beyond doubt: Artificial intelligence will occupy an even larger place in our business than it does today.
正如我在回忆录开头所说，我们已经是全球最大的数据中心所有者——没有这些基础设施，现代人工智能无法运行。
As I said at the beginning of this memoir, we are already the world's largest owner of data centers -- the infrastructure without which modern AI cannot function.
对这些设施所需一切资源的需求将持续增长：电力、半导体、冷却系统和网络。每一项都代表着巨大的投资机会，有望产生卓越回报。
Demand for everything those facilities require will continue to grow: electric power, semiconductors, cooling systems and networks. Each represents an enormous investment opportunity with the potential to generate exceptional returns.
我们也将目光投向了推动人工智能革命的那些家喻户晓的企业。在备受瞩目的首次公开募股（IPO）于今年6月进行之前，我们投资了SpaceX。今年我们还与Anthropic和Google合作，帮助将人工智能引入全球各地的企业。
We have also turned our attention to the household names driving the AI revolution itself. Before its much-discussed initial public offering this June, we invested in SpaceX. This year we also partnered with Anthropic and Google to help bring AI into businesses around the world.
如今，在我们审阅的每一份投资备忘录中，前几页都必须重点阐述人工智能对该业务的风险。当我思考人工智能时，脑海中浮现出三次令人印象深刻的对话。
Today, in every investment memorandum we look at, the first few pages have to highlight the AI risks to the business. When I think about AI, three conversations stand out in my mind.
第一次是与马云的对话，他是中国电商巨头阿里巴巴的联合创始人之一。
The first was with Jack Ma, a co-founder of Alibaba, China's online marketplace giant.
2015年，我们在一次访华行程中，恰好坐在一辆巴士的相邻座位上。在大半程路途中，他热情地谈论着人工智能。
In 2015, we happened to be seated next to each other on a bus during a visit to China. For much of the ride, he spoke enthusiastically about artificial intelligence.
“这是我们这一代最强大的技术，”他说，“它将成就非凡伟业，改善世界各地人们的生活。”我只是盯着他看。当时，我几乎不懂他在说什么。但他在我心中种下了一颗好奇的种子。
"This is the most powerful technology of our generation," he said. "It will do extraordinary things and improve the lives of people everywhere." I simply stared at him. At the time, I had little idea what he was talking about.
第二次对话是与拉斐尔·里夫进行的，他曾担任麻省理工学院校长，直到2022年卸任。
But he planted a seed of curiosity. The second conversation came with Rafael Reif, who served as president of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology until 2022.
他解释说，人工智能背后的理念已存在数十年，但计算机一直缺乏足够的处理能力使其变得实用。
He explained that the ideas behind AI had existed for decades, but computers simply lacked the processing power to make them practical.
他说，那个障碍终于消失了。“现在它拥有了那种力量，你将看到这些非凡的突破。”第三次对话发生在ChatGPT于2022年横空出世后不久。
That obstacle, he said, had finally disappeared. "Now it has that power, and you're going to see these phenomenal types of breakthroughs." The third conversation came shortly after ChatGPT burst onto the scene in 2022.
微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉身穿黑色T恤，匆匆赶来见我。他说话时透着不同寻常的紧迫感。
Satya Nadella, Microsoft's chief executive, hurried to see me wearing a black T-shirt. He spoke with unusual urgency.
“我们从未想象过会出现这样的事情，”他告诉我。“我们已经拥有一亿用户。我需要一切。”
"We never imagined anything like this," he told me. "We've already reached one hundred million users. I need everything."
他说的“一切”，是指基础设施。我告诉他，我们已经拥有一家数据中心公司。“真的吗？”他反问。“那我们应该谈谈。”那次对话为黑石在人工智能革命的最前沿扮演更重要的角色打开了大门。二十年后，黑石将变得更加庞大。
By "everything," he meant infrastructure. I told him we already owned a data center company. "Really?" he replied. "Then we should talk." That conversation opened the door to a much larger role for Blackstone at the forefront of the AI revolution. Twenty years from now, Blackstone will be larger still.
另类投资才刚刚开始触达个人投资者，我们将继续为他们创造产品。我们也将变得更加全球化，提供更多以美元以外货币计价的投资工具。然而，有一件事永远不会改变。我们不会进入无法盈利的业务。
Alternative investments have only begun to reach individual investors, and we will continue creating products for them. We will also become increasingly global, offering more investment vehicles denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. One thing, however, will never change. We will not enter businesses that cannot be profitable.
我要的是那些与市场需求联系如此紧密、以至于能在第一年内实现盈利的业务。
I want businesses whose connection to market demand is so powerful that they become profitable within their first year.
许多公司花费数年时间孵化项目，在产生回报前持续消耗现金。那从来不是我们的理念。我痛恨亏损。
Many firms spend years nurturing ventures that consume cash before producing a return. That has never been our philosophy. I hate losing money.
我们启动新业务的标准非常简单。这个想法能吸引资本吗？能吸引杰出人才吗？如果两个问题的答案都是肯定的，盈利通常就会随之而来。
Our test for launching a new business is remarkably simple. Can the idea attract capital? Can it attract exceptional people? If the answer to both questions is yes, profitability usually follows.
伟大的想法能吸引投资，也能吸引非凡的人才。一旦两者兼备，你就已经解决了大部分问题。
Great ideas draw investment, and they attract extraordinary talent. Once you have both, you have already solved most of the problem.
秘诀不在于指望普通人完成非凡的壮举，而在于找到非凡的人，让他们自然地做他们擅长的事。
The secret is not to expect ordinary people to perform extraordinary feats. It is to find extraordinary people and let them do what comes naturally to them.
乔恩今年仅56岁。我预计他将至少在未来15年继续领导公司，包括在我卸任首席执行官之后。
Jon is still only 56 years old. I expect Jon to be leading the company for at least the next 15 years, including after he succeeds me as CEO.
我担任这一职务已超过四十年。合计起来，这意味着近60年极其稳定的领导层传承。
I have served in that role for more than four decades. Together, that amounts to nearly 60 years of remarkably consistent leadership.
在公司内部，乔恩的思维方式与我非常相似。在许多方面，他可能比我更优秀。这种连续性在金融界极为罕见。沃伦·巴菲特领导下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦是为数不多的可比案例之一。
Inside the firm, Jon thinks very much as I do. In many respects, he is probably better than I am. That kind of continuity is extraordinarily rare in finance. Berkshire Hathaway under Warren Buffett is one of the few comparable examples.
归根结底，建设一家伟大的金融机构取决于两种能力。第一是避免亏损。第二是在其他人之前识别下一个重大机遇。
In the end, building a great financial institution comes down to two abilities. The first is avoiding losses. The second is recognizing the next great opportunity before others do.
这两项原则自创立之初便指引着黑石的发展。乔恩对它们有着透彻的理解。我完全有信心他将传承下去。二十年后，可能已有其他人接替他的位置。我对此不感担忧。斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼是黑石联合创始人、董事长兼首席执行官。
Those two principles have guided Blackstone from the beginning. Jon understands them completely. I have every confidence that he will carry them forward. Twenty years from now, someone else may already have succeeded him. I am not worried. Stephen Schwarzman is co-founder, chairman and CEO of Blackstone.