
佛罗里达州正在起诉气候风险建模公司First Street Technology Inc.,指控其基于有缺陷的科学给出风险评分,从而损害该州房主的利益。
Florida is suing the climate-risk modeling firm First Street Technology Inc., accusing it of penalizing state homeowners with risk scores based on flawed science.
这起诉讼于10月23日提起,凸显出针对这类评分的抵制情绪日益高涨。这些评分旨在让消费者更深入了解房屋面临火灾、洪水及其他气候相关危险的风险敞口。内布拉斯加州已于8月对该公司提起了类似的诉讼。
Filed Oct. 23, the lawsuit highlights growing pushback against the scores, which are intended to give consumers more insight into homes’ exposure to fire, flood and other climate-related dangers. Nebraska brought its own, similar suit against the company in August.

佛罗里达州总检察长、正在竞选连任的共和党人詹姆斯·乌斯迈尔在X上宣布这一行动时表示,First Street的数据不准确,“房主们应该得到事实,而不是那些冲击他们房产价值和钱包的危言耸听评分。”First Street最近被MSCI Inc.收购,该公司利用计算机模型估算房产面临洪水、野火、极端高温、大风及其他灾害的威胁——包括当前和未来数十年——精确到单个地址的层面。MSCI未回应置评请求。
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, a Republican who is running for reelection, said when announcing the action on X that First Street data is inaccurate and “homeowners deserve facts, not alarmist scores that hit their property values and their wallets.”First Street, which was recently acquired by MSCI Inc., uses computer models to estimate the threat to property of flooding, wildfire, extreme heat, wind and other hazards — now and decades into the future — down to the level of an individual address. MSCI didn’t respond to a request for comment.
其他公司也对这类风险进行建模,但First Street将估算结果转化为1到10的评分,并通过房地产网站广泛提供。其理念是让房产的气候相关风险透明化,支持知情购房决策。
Other companies model those risks, but First Street turns the estimates into 1-to-10 scores and makes them widely available through real-estate websites. The idea is to make transparent the climate-related risks to property and support informed purchasing decisions.
2020年First Street发布首份重要报告后,Zillow、Redfin和Realtor.com等房地产网站开始整合其风险评分。康涅狄格州保险部门甚至与该公司合作,为居民提供免费的房产评估。
After First Street produced its first major report in 2020, real-estate sites including Zillow, Redfin and Realtor.com started integrating its risk scores. Connecticut’s state insurance department even partnered with the company to offer residents free assessments of their properties.
但气候风险评级的激增引发了诸多疑问:这些评分背后的模型是否可靠、应如何最好地解读它们,以及当房屋评分出错时会产生什么后果。
But the proliferation of climate-risk ratings has led to questions about the models behind them, how best to interpret them and what happens when a home’s score is wrong.
去年,在加州区域多重上市服务系统提出反对后,Zillow停止在房源信息中直接显示First Street的评分。房屋卖家和房地产经纪人抱怨称,这些评分可能压低房产价值并损害销售。
Last year, Zillow stopped displaying scores from First Street directly on listings after objections from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service. Home sellers and real estate agents have complained the scores may lower property values and hurt sales.
气候风险建模技术先进,但其可靠性随地理范围缩小而降低。彭博新闻社2024年将First Street公司2020年针对洛杉矶的细粒度洪灾风险估算与一支学术团队的结果进行对比,发现两组结果差异巨大,仅有四分之一的时间重合。
Climate-risk modeling is sophisticated, but its reliability decreases the smaller the geographic scale is. Bloomberg News in 2024 compared First Street’s granular 2020 flood-risk estimates for Los Angeles with an academic team’s and found that the two sets of results were widely divergent, overlapping just a quarter of the time.
在其诉状中,佛罗里达州将First Street的工作描述为倡导而非客观风险分析,指控该公司从事“气候欺诈”,并以“推动气候行动主义议程”为由“兜售恐惧”,同时从其出售的关于“虚假”风险的信息中获利。
In its complaint, Florida casts First Street’s work as advocacy rather than objective risk analysis, accusing the company of “climate chicanery” and “marketing fear to advance a climate activism agenda” while profiting from the information it sells about “fake” risks.
波士顿大学法学教授麦迪逊·康登研究气候风险、监管和金融,她表示对First Street如何推广其信息感到担忧。但她也指出:“也存在真正的担忧,即此类诉讼可能会抑制实体气候风险数据的总体提供。”她补充说,建模本质上存在不确定性,“科学模型可以存在分歧,而不必是故意欺骗。”
Madison Condon, a law professor at Boston University who researches climate risk, regulation and finance, said she has concerns about how First Street has marketed its information. But “there are also real concerns that a lawsuit of this type could chill the provision of physical climate-risk data in general,” she said. The modeling is inherently uncertain, “and scientific models can disagree without being willfully deceptive,” she noted.
内布拉斯加州和佛罗里达州正在起诉First Street,而美国房主正面临由部分原因是保险费率急剧上涨所驱动的可负担性危机。佛罗里达州认为,由于保险公司也使用First Street的数据,有缺陷的风险评分可能会影响居民的保险成本和承保状态。
Nebraska and Florida are taking on First Street as US homeowners face an affordability crisis, driven in part by sharply rising insurance rates. Florida argues that faulty risk scores could potentially affect residents’ insurance costs and coverage status since First Street data is also used by insurers.