即使没有厄尔尼诺现象的干扰，肯尼亚内罗毕也容易发生洪水。上图：3月14日，驾驶员在基贝拉社区的暴雨中行驶。那个月的洪水在首都夺走了100多条生命。
Even without the interference of El Niño, Nairobi, Kenya is prone to flooding. Above: Motorists drive through heavy rains in the Kibera community on March 14. Flooding that month took over 100 lives in the capital city.
Donwilson Odhiambo/盖蒂图片社 内罗毕是一座拥有河流、溪流和近600万人口的城市。
Donwilson Odhiambo/Getty Images Nairobi is a city of rivers, streams and almost six million people.
数周来，肯尼亚繁忙的首都一直在为可能发生的灾难性洪水做准备，因为预报员预测今年冬季将出现有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件。在全球范围内，今年的超级厄尔尼诺预计将在11月或12月达到顶峰，并持续到2027年初。但内罗毕并非只是在观望等待。
For weeks, Kenya's bustling capital has braced for potentially catastrophic floods, as forecasters predict the strongest El Niño event on record this winter. Globally, this year's Super El Niño will likely peak in November or December and continue into early 2027. But Nairobi isn't just watching and waiting.
在一个阳光明媚的10月天，市中心附近的一条河岸上，一队身穿反光背心的工人正在铲除泥土、清理杂物。天气异常炎热——炎热的日子通常预示着即将到来的雨季异常强劲。
On a sunny October day near the city center, a team of workers in reflective vests shovels dirt and clears debris from the bank of a river. It's unseasonably hot — and hot days usually suggest there's an unusually strong rainy season ahead.
“做好准备是最好的办法，”30岁的工人亚历克斯·奥扬多（Alex Oyando）说。“这些排水沟里堆满了各种东西。我们清理泥土后，水就能流通——从而防止洪水。”内罗毕经常遭遇灾难性的山洪。去年3月，由降雨引发的山洪造成100多人死亡，居民们施压肯尼亚政府，要求其采取更多措施预防未来发生此类灾害。
"The best thing to do is to be prepared," says Alex Oyando, a 30-year-old worker. "These drainage troughs are full of different things. When we remove the dirt, the water can flow — and it prevents flooding." Nairobi frequently experiences catastrophic flash floods. More than 100 people died during rain-induced flash floods last March, and residents have pressured Kenya's government to do more to prevent these disasters in the future.
作为准备工作的一部分，内罗毕县政府调动了“绿色军队”，这是一个拥有4000多人的青年就业计划。虽然他们通常负责垃圾清理和城市绿化项目，但为了应对厄尔尼诺，工人们已全员出动，疏通排水系统并拆除非法建筑，如小吃摊。这些建筑通常由社区在无政府许可的情况下建造，在自然灾害面前倒塌风险更高。
As part of the preparations, Nairobi's county government has mobilized the "Green Army," a youth-employment program of more than 4,000 people. While generally assigned to trash pickups and city greening projects, the workers have been out in full force to prepare for El Niño, clearing drainages and dismantling illegal structures like food stalls. These buildings are generally constructed by the community without government permits and are at an increased risk of collapsing during natural disasters.
本月早些时候，奥扬多和同事们拓宽了一条排水沟，这条沟沿着一条繁忙的道路延伸，路旁摆满了卖衣服的摊位。成堆的布料、塑料瓶和其他垃圾经常在溪流中堆积，引发山洪暴发。
Earlier this month, Oyando and his colleagues widened a drainage ditch that runs along a busy road lined with stalls selling clothing. Piles of fabric, plastic bottles and other litter often build up in the stream, triggering flash floods.
奥扬多承认，虽然这份工作的收入不如他在别处能挣到的多，但轮班安排合理，不算太累。“这给了我一个谋生的机会，”他说。
While the pay isn't as much as he could make elsewhere, Oyando admits, the shifts are manageable and not too grueling. "It's something that gives me an opportunity to make a living," he says.
奥扬多的许多同事居住或成长于内罗毕的低收入社区，这些社区受山洪暴发的影响最为严重。老化的排水基础设施和堵塞的水道会导致雨水积聚。他说，每当下雨，他所在的街道被水淹没、家中进水的情况并不罕见。
Many of Oyando's colleagues live or grew up in Nairobi's low-income neighborhoods, which are the hardest hit by flash floods. Aging drainage infrastructure and clogged waterways can cause stormwater to build up. When it rains, he says, it's not unusual for his street to fill with water and flood his home.
“我们几十年来一直使用的基础设施，是为不超过200万人口设计的，”内罗毕郡政府灾害管理首席官员布拉姆韦尔·西米尤说。“而我们现在谈论的是接近700万的日间人口。”
"The infrastructure we've had in place for decades was tailored for a population of not more than 2 million people," says Bramwell Simiyu, the chief officer of disaster management for Nairobi's county government. "We're now talking about a daytime population of close to 7 million."
肯尼亚联邦政府已制定了一项3.85亿美元的计划，旨在到2027年底拓宽内罗毕的水道、建造经济适用房，并改善城市的垃圾收集和下水道系统。此外，该计划还支持一项名为“气候工程”的国家青年就业项目，该项目正与“绿色军团”合作进行厄尔尼诺现象的应对准备。西米尤表示，目前郡政府正在为雨季准备物资和疏散中心。
A $385 million remedy Kenya's federal government has put in place a $385 million plan to widen Nairobi's waterways build affordable housing and improve the city's trash pickup and sewer system by the end of 2027. In addition, the program supports a national youth employment program called Climate WorX, which is working with the Green Army on El Niño preparations. Now, Simiyu says, the county is preparing supplies and evacuation centers for the rainy season.
“我们也在为最坏的情况做准备，届时可能有大约2万户家庭受到影响——主要集中在低收入定居点，”西米尤说。有争议的拆除行动在这些定居点，拆除非法搭建的结构（如食品摊贩摊位）引发了强烈抗议。内罗毕卡穆昆吉地区“绿色军团”小组的监督员托比亚斯·西富纳表示，这是必要的一步。
"We're also preparing for a worst-case scenario, where up to about 20,000 households may be affected — mostly in the low -income settlements," Simiyu said. Controversial demolitions In these settlements, the demolition of illegally built structures, such as food hawker stalls, has caused an outcry. Tobias Sifuna, a supervisor for Green Army teams in the Kamukunji area of Nairobi, says it's a necessary step.
“这些是社区私自搭建的小摊位，没有获得县政府的授权，”西富纳说。但周边社区依靠这些摊位维持生计和日常购物。
"These are small kiosks that are built illegally, by the community — without the authorization from the county government," Sifuna said. But nearby communities rely on them, for income and for daily shopping.
32岁的水果摊贩威克利夫·奥切恩说，内罗毕市中心的许多工人现在白天再无处购买平价的热午餐。“现在，我们只能饿着肚子睡觉，因为买不起吃的，”奥切恩说。
Wycliffe Ochieng, a 32-year-old fruit vendor, says many workers in central Nairobi now have nowhere to buy an affordable hot lunch during the day. "Now, we have to sleep without food because we can't afford it," Ochieng says.
当县政府拆除这些店铺时，受损失的是社区 —— 无论洪水最终是否来袭。但正是这些社区在上一个雨季的洪水中受创最重。奥切恩本人曾被迫在户外过夜，因为洪水阻隔了他回家的路。
When the county government destroys the shops, it's the community that feels the loss — whether or not the floods eventually come. But it's these neighborhoods that were hit the hardest by the floods during the last rainy season. Ochieng himself had to sleep outdoors, because he could not reach his home in the floodwaters.
“下雨时这地方简直像大海一样，”奥切恩说。“洪水来临时，所有的食品摊位都被冲走了。”他的一位朋友、一名女食品摊主在试图逃生时丧生。他自己的小杂货摊也没了。他在一个新社区艰难地重建生意，那里的顾客不再认得他。“洪水过后我真的吃了大苦。连饭都难吃上，”奥切恩说。
"This place, it's like an ocean when it's raining," Ochieng says. "When the flood came, all the food stalls were swept away." His friend, a woman who owned a food stall, died as she tried to escape. He lost his own stand, a small grocery, as well. He struggled to rebuild his business in a new neighborhood, where customers no longer knew him by reputation. "After the flood I really suffered. It was hard to put food on the table," Ochieng says.
他说希望县政府能做更多工作来防洪并保障生计。他只能从头再来这么多次。
He says he hopes the county can do more to prevent flooding and safeguard livelihoods. There are only so many times he can rebuild his life from scratch.
“我们都很害怕。我担心如果厄尔尼诺来袭，我就再也回不来了。” 欲了解更多关于变化世界中生活的故事，厄尔尼诺 洪水
"We are all scared. I fear if El Niño comes, I won't come back again." For stories about life in our changing world, to NPR's Global Health newsletter. el niño El Nino flooding