新德里——在俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争背景下，随着欧洲国家增加军费开支，在弹药和炮弹需求的驱动下，印度对欧洲的国防出口大幅飙升。不断增长的出口可能为双方更深层次的工业合作铺平道路。
NEW DELHI — India’s defense exports to Europe have surged, driven largely by demand for ammunition and artillery shells as European countries ramp up military spending amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. The rising exports could pave the way for deeper industrial cooperation between the two sides.
印度国防秘书拉杰什·库马尔·辛格表示，与欧盟“重新武装欧洲”倡议相关的需求，加上印度不断扩大的国防制造基础，正在推动出口增加。他是10月23日清新德里的一次活动上发表上述讲话的。
Indian Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh said that demand linked to the European Union’s “ReArm Europe” initiative, combined with India’s expanding defense manufacturing base, is boosting exports. He spoke Oct 23. at an event in New Delhi.
辛格援引彭博社的一份报道称，该报道发现印度对欧洲的弹药及相关产品出口急剧增加。
Singh cited a Bloomberg report that found a sharp increase in India’s exports of ammunition and related products to Europe.
根据该报道援引贸易数据监测机构的数据，自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的四年里，印度出口了价值至少8.72亿美元的弹药，与此前四年相比增幅超过1600%。
India exported at least $872 million worth of ammunition in the four years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a more than 1,600% increase compared with the preceding four-year period, according to the report, which cited data from Trade Data Monitor.
罗马尼亚、斯洛文尼亚、捷克共和国、斯洛伐克、保加利亚、克罗地亚和波兰等中东欧国家是最大的买家之一。
Central and East European countries including Romania, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Poland were among the biggest customers.
分析人士称，自2024年以来，随着欧洲国家在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后补充库存并加强国防能力，弹药出口急剧上升。出口产品包括炮弹、小口径弹药、迫击炮弹、推进剂和炸药。
Ammunition exports have risen sharply since 2024 as European countries replenish stocks and strengthen defense capabilities following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, analysts say. The exports include artillery shells, small-caliber ammunition, mortars, propellants and explosives.
新德里马诺哈尔·帕里卡尔国防研究与分析研究所研究员塞缪尔·拉吉夫表示，在上一财年，欧洲目的地占印度全球武器和弹药出口的40%。
European destinations accounted for 40% of Indian global exports of arms and ammunition in the last financial year, according to Samuel Rajiv, Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.
他说，这一激增可能会转化为长期趋势。“由于欧洲对国防的更加关注，印度将迎来更多机会，这将导致大量资金投入到其国防工业基础的转型中，”拉吉夫说。“与此同时，印度出口不仅会因为欧洲的需求而获得势头，还将受益于印度为扩大自身国防制造基础而采取的步骤。”随着印度和欧盟达成的一项自由贸易协定在未来一年生效，来自印度的武器和弹药关税将降低，印度的出口也可能得到提振。
He said this surge could translate into a long-term trend. “There will be greater opportunities for India due to Europe’s greater focus on defense, which will result in a lot of money going into the transformation of its defense industrial base,” said Rajiv. “At the same time, Indian exports will gain momentum not just because of Europe’s requirements but the steps India is taking to expand its own defense manufacturing base.”Indian exports could also get a fillip as tariffs on arms and ammunition from India become lower when a free trade agreement concluded between India and the European Union takes effect in the coming year.
新德里还寻求通过工业伙伴关系在欧洲国防市场中发挥更广泛的作用。国防秘书辛格表示，印度希望在印度与欧洲公司建立合资企业，而印度公司则将在欧洲寻求伙伴关系，以获取政府国防采购项目的准入。
New Delhi is also seeking a broader role in Europe’s defense market through industrial partnerships. Defense Secretary Singh said India wants to establish joint ventures with European companies in India, while Indian companies would seek partnerships in Europe to gain access to government defense procurement programs.
分析人士表示，尽管印度和欧盟能否建立更持久的国防工业关系还有待观察，但随着欧洲寻求使其供应链多元化，彼此合作正成为双方切实可行的选择。
Analysts say although it remains to be seen whether India and the EU can build more sustained defense industrial ties, partnering with each other is emerging as a viable option for both sides as Europe seeks to diversify its supply chains.
“在欧洲试图建立对美国的韧性之际，印度提供了这种规模、体量、生态系统以及信任。对欧洲而言，俄罗斯已不再是一个选项，那已经结束了。中国在许多战略区域和关键领域有着自己的红线。因此，这留下的可选余地非常小，”卡内基印度研究项目研究员迪纳卡尔·佩里说。
“India offers that scale, size and ecosystem as well as trust as Europe tries to build resilience from the United States. Russia is not an option for Europe, that is over. China has its own red flags in many ways in strategic areas and critical domains. So that leaves very few options available,” says Dinakar Peri, Fellow in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India.
与此同时，鉴于长期依赖包括美国在内的外国供应商，印度也一直致力于实现国防关系的多元化。“因此，与欧洲建立更紧密的伙伴关系对印度同样适用，”他说。
At the same time, India has also been working to diversify its defense relationships given its longstanding dependence on foreign suppliers, including the United States. “So a closer partnership with Europe also works for India,” he said.
分析人士指出，鉴于数家美国、法国和以色列承包商已经将印度供应商纳入其供应链，欧盟可以使印度成为其一系列物品的采购枢纽。
Pointing out that several American, French, and Israeli contractors have already integrated Indian vendors into their supply chains, analysts say the EU can make India its sourcing hub for a range of items.
然而，随着印度寻求与欧盟建立更深层次的国防伙伴关系，新德里与俄罗斯长期存在的军事联系可能会引发一些欧洲首都的担忧。
However New Delhi’s longstanding military ties with Russia could raise concerns in some European capitals as India eyes deeper defense partnerships with the EU.
根据佩里的说法，“这是否会成为与欧盟建立更深层次国防工业关系的障碍，还有待观察。在双边层面，印度已经与法国等国建立了强有力的国防关系，但欧盟作为一个集团将如何看待印度与莫斯科的军事联系尚不清楚。”
“It remains to be seen whether this will become an obstacle to deeper defense industrial ties with the EU,” according to Peri. “Bilaterally, India already has strong defense relationships with countries such as France, but it is unclear how the EU as a bloc will view India’s military ties with Moscow.”