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巴克莱:公司债交易正超越顶级证券Corporate-Bond Trading Is Moving Beyond Top Securities, Barclays Says

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越来越多来自单个蓝筹公司的公司债交易相对频繁,这表明美国和欧洲市场的流动性正在增长。

More corporate bonds from individual blue-chip companies are trading relatively frequently, signaling that the market’s liquidity is growing in the US and Europe.

例如,巴克莱策略师佐尔尼察·托多罗娃表示,在美国,截至本月,一家公司的前三只债券约占该公司证券交易量的35%,比2023年1月低了5个百分点。欧洲信用债在大约三年半的时间里也出现了类似幅度的下降。

In the US, for example, a company’s top three bonds accounted for about 35% of trading volume in the firm’s securities as of this month, five percentage points lower than in January 2023, according to Barclays strategist Zornitsa Todorova. A drop of a similar magnitude was seen in Europe credit over a roughly three-and-a-half-year span.

托多罗娃在周二的一份报告中写道,这一下降主要来自投资级债券,而在高收益市场,交易量仍然更加集中。被称为超大规模企业的大型科技公司,其交易量也往往集中在少数几只证券上。

Most of that decline is coming from investment-grade bonds, while in high-yield markets, trading volume remains more concentrated, Todorova wrote in a note dated Tuesday. Big tech companies known as hyperscalers also tend to have their trading volume focused in just a few securities.

报告称,随着一家公司更多债券参与交易,投资者在表达对特定期限债券的看法时有了更大的灵活性,购买流动性较差证券的溢价可能会下降。

With more of a company’s bonds trading, investors have more flexibility to express views on particular maturities, and the premium for buying illiquid securities may decline, according to the note.

托多罗娃写道:“随着交易活动扩展到基准债券之外,在流通债券与非流通债券之间的估值差距可能会缩小,从而创造一个更高效、流动性更强的发行人生态系统。”

“As trading activity extends beyond benchmark issues, the valuation gap between on- and off-the-run bonds may narrow, creating a more efficient and liquid issuer ecosystem,” Todorova wrote.

流动性也往往会在公司发行人内部发生变化,尤其是在新债券发行时。报告称,在投资级信用债中,交易最活跃的债券即使在一个月后,仍有超过三分之二的可能性留在发行人交易最活跃的前三只债券之列。三个月后,这一概率降至55%。

Liquidity also tends to change within corporate issuers, especially as new bonds are sold. Within investment-grade credit, the most traded bond has a more than two-third chance of remaining among an issuer’s top three bonds with the highest trading activity even one month later, according to the note. After three months, that probability drops to 55%.

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