字号·· | 护眼
日经

随着中国儿童数量减少,乳企重新思考面向成人的牛奶产品With China having fewer kids, dairies rethink milk for adults

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

伊利面向老年人销售的奶粉陈列在中国大连的一家超市里。(照片由藤村康平拍摄)Yili's powdered milk marketed for older adults is seen at a supermarket in Dalian, China. (Photo by Kohei Fujimura)

东京/中国大连 -- 中国产奶量已超出国内消费者需求,迫使乳企尝试新的市场策略,至少有一家企业选择退出。

TOKYO/DALIAN, China -- China produces more milk than the nation's consumers want, pushing dairy companies to try new approaches to the market or, in at least one case, pull out.

日本明治控股将把其在中国销售牛奶、酸奶等产品的三家子公司出售给上海奥亚食品,交易将于12月完成。

Japan's Meiji Holdings will unload three Chinese units that sell milk, yogurt and other products, transferring them to Shanghai AustAsia Food in December.

明治曾试图通过推出高端品牌等举措扭转其在中国的业务颓势,但仍陷入困境,于3月计提194亿日元(约1.23亿美元)减值损失。

Meiji had tried to turn its China business around with such steps as last year's release of premium brand but it still struggled, booking a 19.4 billion yen ($123 million) impairment loss in March.

中国本土乳企同样举步维艰。作为国内最大乳企,内蒙古伊利实业集团去年营收利润双增,但排名第二的中国蒙牛乳业液态奶销量却下滑。据当地媒体报道,2025年29家上市乳企中有13家营收利润双降。

Chinese dairy companies are having a tough time as well. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, the country's largest dairy producer, logged increases in both revenue and profit last year, but sales of fluid milk products sank at second-ranked China Mengniu Dairy. Revenue and profit fell at 13 out of 29 publicly traded dairy companies in 2025, local media report.

在中国政府扶持下,全国年产奶量20年翻倍至约4000万吨。但近年供过于求导致生鲜乳价格较五年前下跌近40%。

With support from the Chinese government, the country's annual milk production has roughly doubled in 20 years to about 40 million metric tons. But recent years have seen a supply glut that has dragged down raw milk prices by nearly 40% from five years ago.

“行业过度聚焦存量市场的价格竞争,未思考如何拓宽需求,”蒙牛首席执行官高飞在业绩说明会上表示。“我们要思考如何把蛋糕做大,”而非仅盘算如何分蛋糕,他说。

"The industry has focused too much on price competition in existing markets, and hasn't considered ways to broaden demand," Mengniu CEO Gao Fei said in an earnings call. "We need to think about how to make the pie bigger," not just how it is divided, he said.

中国人口快速老龄化是供过于求的因素之一。2010年代年出生人口常超1500万,据政府数据,去年出生不足800万。

China's rapidly aging population is a factor in the oversupply. While annual births topping 15 million were not uncommon in the 2010s, fewer than 8 million babies were born last year, according to government data.

2025年4月,伊利推出16亿元(约2.4亿美元)备孕家庭支持计划,每户发放1600元,以此刺激奶制品需求。乳企正将目光转向老年消费群体。

In April 2025, Yili launched a 1.6 billion yuan ($240 million) support program for families expecting children, paying households 1,600 yuan each in a bid to boost demand for milk. Dairy companies are now looking to older consumers.

伊利旗下的新活品牌奶粉由伊利与北京同仁堂中医联合研发,据伊利介绍,含有铁等19种营养素。公司表示,该饮品有助于维持肌肉量,减轻日常活动带来的疲劳感。

Yili's Xinhuo brand of powdered milk, developed in partnership with Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine, contains 19 nutrients including iron, according to Yili. The company says the drink can help maintain muscle mass and reduce tiredness from daily activities.

蒙牛则在竞品悦瑞品牌上强调科学依据。该公司曾邀请一位大学教授在产品发布会上解读临床试验结果,并在产品官网提供外文学术论文链接。伊利在一段视频中为其面向老年人的新活奶粉做宣传。

Mengniu is emphasizing science for its competing Yourui brand. It has had a university professor discuss clinical trial results at a product announcement event and included links to foreign academic papers on product websites. Yili advertises its Xinhuo powdered milk for seniors in this video.

这种策略转变帮助伊利和蒙牛维持了增长,两公司上半年营收分别增长4%和8%。

This change in tack has helped sustain growth at Yili and Mengniu, which booked first-half revenue gains of 4% and 8%, respectively.

尽管政府推广奶制品消费已超过二十年,人均年消费量仍徘徊在40公斤左右。农业农村部在2025年夏季表示,这一数字远低于建议的110至183公斤区间,也低于日本和韩国的80至90公斤。

Despite more than two decades of government efforts to promote dairy consumption, per capita consumption averages around 40 kilograms a year. The agriculture ministry said in summer 2025 that this is far below the recommended range of 110 to 183 kg, and less than the 80 to 90 kg consumed in Japan and South Korea.

然而,一份政府农业展望报告预测,2024年至2034年间,奶及奶制品消费将增长37%,而猪肉和牛肉消费将分别下降5%和2%。

Yet a government agriculture outlook report forecasts consumption of milk and dairy products growing 37% between 2024 and 2034, even as pork and beef decline 5% and 2%, respectively.

北海道大学农业政策学副教授清水池义治表示:“他们可能参考了日本和韩国的消费水平,设定了较高的目标。”

"They may have set a high target with consumption levels in Japan and South Korea in mind," said Yoshiharu Shimizuike, an associate professor of agricultural policy at Hokkaido University.

普华永道咨询高级经济学家园田直隆说:“只要奶酪、酸奶等除牛奶外的奶制品需求不增长,就很难看到消费上升。”一些观察人士认为,生理和历史因素限制了市场的增长潜力。乳糖不耐受普遍存在,豆奶作为早餐饮品已根深蒂固。

Naotaka Sonoda, senior economist at PwC Consulting, said: "It's hard to see consumption rising as long as demand for dairy products besides milk, such as cheese and yogurt, fails to grow." Some observers see physical and historical factors limiting the market's growth potential. Lactose intolerance is widespread, and soy milk is well established as a breakfast drink.

大连一名30多岁男子说:“我喝[牛]奶会胃疼。吃面包时,我会搭配咖啡或豆奶。”

"I get a stomachache when I drink [dairy] milk," said a man in his 30s in Dalian. "When I eat bread, I drink coffee or soy milk with it."

阅读媒体原文 ↗