澳大利亚核心通胀在截至9月的三个月内加速上升，增强了澳洲联储加息以抑制物价压力的理由。
Australia’s core inflation accelerated in the three months through September, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates to try to rein in price pressures.
澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，年度修正平均消费者价格指标上季度上涨3.7%，增速快于前三个月，也超过了经济学家预估的3.6%。按季度计算，核心价格上涨1%，符合预期。
The annual trimmed mean gauge of consumer prices advanced 3.7% last quarter, faster than in the previous three months and also surpassing economists’ estimate of 3.6%, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday. On a quarterly basis, core prices rose 1%, matching forecasts.
澳元上涨0.3%，对政策敏感的三年期国债收益率一度上升8个基点至4.93%，延续了早前的涨势。交易员预计联储在周二下次议息会议上加息的概率为78%，高于数据公布前的70%。
The Australian dollar rose 0.3% while the yield on policy-sensitive three-year notes climbed as much as eight basis points to 4.93%, extending an earlier gain. Traders priced a 78% chance of a hike at the end of the central bank’s next meeting on Tuesday, up from a 70% probability just prior to the print.
澳洲联储上月第四次加息，回应通胀上行风险开始显现的迹象。最新CPI报告表明，央行可能需要在11月2日至3日的政策会议上再次收紧政策，以尝试将通胀拉回2%-3%的目标区间。
The RBA raised rates last month for the fourth time this year, responding to signs that upside risk of faster inflation had begun to materialize. The CPI report suggests the central bank may need to tighten again at its Nov. 2-3 policy meeting to try to bring inflation back toward its 2-3% target band.
“我认为我们可以放心地锁定此次加息了，”加拿大皇家银行悉尼分行经济与利率策略主管罗伯特·汤普森表示。“考虑到他们近期的措辞以及这份报告中令人担忧的细节——核心指标过高，且市场服务（剔除波动项）等关键组成部分再次上升——如果澳洲联储不加息，我会感到震惊。”这份备受关注的报告发布之际，包括行长米歇尔·布洛克在内的澳洲联储高级官员正于周三早些时候出席议会委员会听证会。
“I think we can safely lock in a hike here,” said Robert Thompson, head of economics and rates strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney. “I would be shocked if the RBA didn’t lift rates given their rhetoric of late and the concerning detail in this report - core measures far too high, and key components such as market services ex-volatiles lifting again.”The closely-scrutinized report was published just as senior RBA officials, including Governor Michele Bullock, appeared before a parliamentary committee early Wednesday.
上周，副行长安德鲁·豪泽表示，通胀前景看起来比澳洲联储8月《货币政策声明》预测的“明显更糟”。央行将在下周利率决定的同时发布更新后的经济展望。
Last week, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation outlook looked “materially worse” than had been predicted in the RBA’s August Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts. The central bank will publish an updated economic outlook alongside next week’s rate decision.
全球油价冲击仍是澳洲联储（RBA）抗击通胀工作面临的持续威胁——美国与伊朗战争在短期内结束的前景依然渺茫。
The global oil shock remains an ongoing threat to the RBA’s inflation-fighting efforts — with prospects for a near-end to the US-Iran war remaining dim.
即便如此，美联储及其在欧元区和日本的同行本周大概率将维持利率不变，选择观望一段时间，然后再考虑进一步加息。从周三在华盛顿开始的为期三天的议息会议来看，决策者在面对从能源价格飙升到人工智能热潮等通胀风险时，很可能会重申鹰派立场，同时保持审慎节奏。
Even so, the Federal Reserve and its peers in the euro zone and Japan will probably keep rates steady this week, opting to bide their time before potential further hikes. Three days of decisions starting Wednesday in Washington are likely to affirm a hawkish stance balanced by a measured pace as policymakers confront inflation risks ranging from surging energy prices to the artificial intelligence boom.