印度珠宝商在其最繁忙的需求旺季来临前暂缓购金，押注近期金价跌势将进一步延续，该国最大贵金属炼企表示。
Indian jewelers are holding back gold purchases ahead of their busiest demand season, betting that a recent drop in prices has further to run, according to the country’s biggest precious metals refiner.
MMTC-PAMP India Pvt. 首席执行官兼董事总经理 Samit Guha 称，通常占据销售大头的大型珠宝连锁店尚未全面回归市场。他说，目前的购买主要由中小型珠宝商主导，其中部分已下达复单。
Large jewelry chains that typically account for the bulk of sales have yet to fully return to the market, said Samit Guha, chief executive officer and managing director of MMTC-PAMP India Pvt., a joint venture of state-owned MMTC Ltd. and Swiss refinery PAMP SA. Buying has instead been led by small- and mid-sized jewelers, some of which have placed repeat orders, he said.
上周金价跌破每盎司 4000 美元，为 7 月以来首次，跌幅较 2 月底美伊战争爆发时累计扩大至约 24%。金价 1 月曾飙升至 5400 美元以上的历史高位。
Gold fell below $4,000 an ounce last week for the first time since July, extending its decline to about 24% since the US-Iran war began in late February. Prices had surged past $5,400 to a record in January.
Guha 表示，大型珠宝制造商通常会在金价开始上涨时加大采购，以在价格进一步走高前锁定供应；而当预期价格继续下跌时，则会消耗库存。
Bigger jewelry makers typically step up purchases when prices start rising to lock in supplies before they become more expensive, while drawing down inventories when they expect further declines, Guha said.
今年全球第二大黄金消费国的需求持续低迷，因政府 5 月将进口关税提高一倍多至 15%。总理纳伦德拉·莫迪 也多次敦促印度民众抑制购金，以遏制贸易逆差扩大。这个南亚国家消费的黄金几乎全靠进口。更高的关税也推动更多购买转入地下现金交易市场。Guha 说：“关税上调影响了我们的采购。”
Demand in the world’s second-biggest gold consumer has remained subdued this year after the government more than doubled the import duty to 15% in May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also repeatedly urged Indians to curb purchases to contain a widening trade deficit. The South Asian nation imports nearly all the gold it consumes. The higher tariff has also pushed more buying into under-the-counter cash markets. “The increase in duty has impacted purchases for us,” Guha said.
这种谨慎态度与中国形成对比，作为全球最大黄金消费国，中国家庭需求近期随价格下跌而回暖。印度的买入意愿不足，在需求即将进入最强劲时期之际增添了疲软迹象，通常购买集中在 10 月至 12 月排灯节前后，今年排灯节定于 11 月 8 日。
The caution contrasts with China, the world’s biggest gold consumer, where household demand has picked up recently as prices declined. India’s reluctance to buy adds to signs of weakness just as demand enters its strongest period, with purchases typically concentrated between October and December around Diwali, which falls on November 8 this year.
据花旗研究称，更严格的进口规则以及厄尔尼诺现象导致季风受阻后农村需求疲软，预计将抑制印度的黄金进口。该机构表示，10月至12月的进口量可能总计约106吨，大致为历史第四季度平均值212吨的一半。
Tighter import rules and weaker rural demand following El Niño-driven monsoon disruptions are expected to curb India’s gold imports, according to Citi Research. Shipments may total about 106 tons from October through December, roughly half the historical fourth-quarter average of 212 tons, it said.
古哈表示，MMTC-PAMP的黄金销售低于去年同期水平，需求偏向较小规格的金币和金条。9月销售量与去年同期大致持平，而10月购买略有回升。他说：“如果黄金反弹，我们将看到买盘。”
MMTC-PAMP’s gold sales are running below last year’s levels, with demand skewed toward smaller coins and bars, Guha said. September sales were roughly flat from a year earlier, while buying has picked up a little in October. “If gold rebounds, we will see buying,” he said.