据高盛集团称，投资者可能无需再长期担心美联储加息问题。宏观策略师维基·张指出，市场目前定价美联储将再加息三次，而高盛经济学家大多认为还将再加息一次。
Investors may not have to worry about Federal Reserve rate hikes for much longer, according to Goldman Sachs. Macro strategist Vickie Chang noted the market is pricing just three additional rate increases from the central bank, while Goldman economists largely see just one more hike ahead.
张表示，若其中任何一种情景出现，这将是自1983年以来规模最小的加息周期之一。
If either of those scenarios play out, they would mark one of the smallest rate-hiking cycles going back to 1983, Chang said.
她指出，美联储在1997年3月和2015年12月各仅加息25个基点，以及在1999年6月至2000年5月间加息了175个基点。一个基点等于0.01%，即1%的百分之一。
She pointed out that the Fed hiked just 25 basis points in both March 1997 and December 2015, as well as 175 bps between June 1999 and May 2000. One basis point equals 0.01%, or 1/100th of 1%.
若美联储再三次每次加息四分之一个百分点，则本轮周期的目标利率将较周期开始时上升约100个基点；若仅再加息一次，则紧缩幅度仅为50个基点。
If the central bank hikes by a quarter-percentage point three more times, it would lift the Fed's target rate by about 100 bps from where this cycle began. If it's just once more, that would mark tightening of just 50 basis points.
张表示，基于此前“小幅”加息周期的经验，这种小幅政策紧缩可能对股市是个好消息。
Such small policy tightening could mean good news for stocks, based on the previous "small" rate hiking periods, Chang said.
她在给客户的报告中表示：“1997年和2015年的两次单次加息周期，在累计紧缩幅度上最接近我们对本轮周期的预期。”
"The two one-hike cycles of 1997 and 2015 are the closest to our own expectations for this cycle in terms of the amount of cumulative tightening," she said in a note to clients.
她补充说：“两个周期中，股市最初都下跌，但1997年迅速触底并强劲反弹；2015年股市在首次加息后两个月内触底，但恢复到加息前水平所需时间比1997年更长，表现也更为震荡。”
"Equities fell initially in both cycles but troughed quickly in 1997 and rallied strongly. Equities troughed within two months of the first hike in 2015 but took longer than in 1997 to recover to pre-hike levels and performance was much more rangebound."
标准普尔500指数在1997年加息后的一年内飙升34%，在2015年加息后的12个月内上涨约9%。
The S & P 500 surged 34% in the year following the 1997 rate increase and advanced about 9% in the 12 months following the 2015 hike.
该基准指数在1999年6月至2000年5月期间也上涨了9%。
The benchmark also rose 9% during the June 1999-May 2000 period.
张补充说：“加息周期与持续投资热潮相结合的更广泛宏观背景，与1999年存在一些明显相似之处，尽管当时存在的宏观失衡如今通常不那么明显。”
"The broader macro context of a hiking cycle into an ongoing investment boom shares some obvious features with 1999, although the macro imbalances present then are generally less visible now," Chang added.
“市场预期的加息系列比1997年和2015年更为延长，但仍不及1999年实施的175个基点。”
"The market expects a more extended series of hikes than in 1997 and 2015, although short of the 175bps delivered in 1999."