东京 —— 东芝可能重新上市正在激发海外对冲基金的兴趣，投资者不仅关注该公司在分拆出的存储业务铠侠控股的股份，还关注其更广泛的业务转型。
TOKYO -- A possible Toshiba relisting is stoking interest among overseas hedge funds, with investors focusing not only on the company's stake in the spun-off memory business Kioxia Holdings but also on its broader business transformation.
在10月中旬举行的对冲基金行业聚会“Sohn Tokyo”上，美国蓝鲸资本首席投资官索伦·安达尔公布了该公司持有多头头寸的三家日本企业。这家公司曾以做空策略闻名。
At Sohn Tokyo, a hedge fund industry gathering in mid-October, Soren Aandahl, chief investment officer of U.S.-based Blue Orca Capital -- a firm once known for its short-selling strategies -- unveiled the three Japanese companies it has long positions in.
这三只股票分别是罗姆、中部电力和废弃物处理公司TRE Holdings。这三家公司均通过日本产业合伙人管理的基金投资了东芝。
The stocks were Rohm, Chubu Electric Power and waste management company TRE Holdings. All three invested in Toshiba through funds managed by Japan Industrial Partners.
安达尔谈到东芝2023年退市时表示：“日本产业合伙人对东芝的私有化将是一笔本垒打级别的交易。”
"The Toshiba take-private by Japan Industrial Partners is going to be a home run of a transaction," Aandahl said of Toshiba's 2023 delisting.
他认为，预计最早将于2028年进行的重新上市“将提供重要催化剂”，以释放隐藏价值。通过投资支持东芝的公司，其公司希望获得快速回报。
He said he believes a relisting, widely expected as early as 2028, "will provide significant catalyst" for unlocking hidden value. By investing in companies that backed Toshiba, his firm hopes to reap quick returns.
这并非东芝投资方首次受到关注。在2026年上半年由人工智能驱动的市场反弹期间，从东芝分拆并随后上市的铠侠股价飙升。投资了东芝的公司股价也因预期将受益于东芝持有的铠侠股份的未实现收益而上涨。
This is not the first time that Toshiba's investor companies have attracted attention. During the AI-driven market rally in the first half of 2026, shares of Kioxia -- which was spun off from Toshiba and later listed -- surged. Stocks of companies that had invested in Toshiba also rose on expectations that they would benefit from unrealized gains on Toshiba's Kioxia holdings.
自铠侠于2024年12月上市以来，罗姆股价已上涨170%。金融集团欧力士股价上涨了70%。
Rohm shares have climbed 170% since December 2024, when Kioxia went public. Shares of financial group Orix have risen 70%.
但海外投资者现在对铠侠的兴趣不如对东芝将如何使用出售股份所得收益的兴趣大。
But overseas investors are now less interested in Kioxia than in how Toshiba will use the proceeds from selling its stake.
根据大股东持股报告，东芝在铠侠2024年上市时持有近40%股份，但一直在分阶段减持。截至10月1日，其持股比例已降至11.8%。
Toshiba owned nearly 40% of Kioxia at the time of its 2024 listing but has been reducing the holdings in stages. Its stake had fallen to 11.8% as of Oct. 1, according to a large-shareholding report.
安达尔估计，东芝已出售约 2.2 万亿日元（约合 139 亿美元）的铠侠股份，“这不仅足以抵消收购债务、夹层融资和优先融资，很可能还让东芝处于大量净现金的状态”，他说。
Aandahl estimates Toshiba has sold about 2.2 trillion yen ($13.9 billion) worth of Kioxia shares, "more than wiping out buyout debt, mezzanine and preferred financing and likely leaving Toshiba in a significant net cash position," he said.
投资者现在关注的是，东芝能否将其充裕的现金持有转化为业务增长。
Investors are now watching whether Toshiba can parlay its ample cash holdings into business growth.
公司业绩表现强劲。数据中心需求上升推动了能源、半导体和硬盘驱动器业务，使 4 至 6 月季度的合并营业利润同比激增 180%，达到创纪录的 1119 亿日元。
The company's earnings have been strong. Rising demand from data centers has boosted the energy, semiconductor and hard disk drive businesses, pushing consolidated operating profit for the April-June quarter up 180% year-on-year to a record 111.9 billion yen.
在 2024 年制定的中期经营计划中，东芝设定了 2027 年 3 月底财年营业利润 3800 亿日元、营业利润率 10% 的目标。目前进度超前于该计划。
In its medium-term management plan from 2024, Toshiba targeted operating profit of 380 billion yen and an operating margin of 10% for the year ending March 2027. It is ahead of that pace.
一家海外资产管理公司的基金经理指出，东芝退市以来盈利能力的恢复令人瞩目，并表示真心期待看到该公司未来五年的成长。
A fund manager at an overseas asset management company noted that the recovery in Toshiba's profitability has been remarkable since the delisting, adding they are genuinely excited to see how the company grows over the next five years.
安达尔表示，他认为如果东芝重返市场，其股价将获得高估值。作为对比，他提到了美国电力设备制造商 GE Vernova，该公司 2024 年从通用电气分拆上市以来，股价已上涨六倍。
Aandahl said he believes Toshiba's share price would be valued highly if it returns to the market. For comparison, he pointed to U.S. power equipment maker GE Vernova, which has had its stock price rise sixfold since it was spun off General Electric and listed in 2024.
随着 AI 投资扩大，商业环境发生了剧变。硬盘制造商希捷科技的股价从东芝私有化的 2023 年起已上涨八倍。日立制作所股价在同期也上涨了 2.8 倍。
The business environment has changed dramatically as investment in AI expands. Shares of hard drive maker Seagate Technology have risen eightfold from 2023, when Toshiba was taken private. Hitachi shares also rose 2.8-fold over that span.
东芝尚未披露任何重新上市的计划或时间表。尽管如此，曾经作为日本旗舰企业之一的东芝复苏，可能产生相当大的连锁效应。
Toshiba has not disclosed any plans or timetable for a relisting. Still, the revival of what was once one of Japan's flagship companies could have considerable ripple effects.
专注于日本股票的英国分析师佩勒姆·史密瑟斯表示，在重新上市的公司中，“最有可能吸引外资买入的，将是那些拥有强势品牌或稳健现金流的公司”。
Among companies that relist, "the ones most likely to attract foreign buying would be ones with strong brands [or] solid cash flow," said Pelham Smithers, a U.K.-based analyst specializing in Japanese equities.
投资者也在关注东芝以外的案例。例如，物流公司Logisteed——原日立物流——计划在截至2028年3月的财年内重新上市。
Investors are also looking beyond Toshiba. For example, logistics company Logisteed -- formerly Hitachi Transport System -- is aiming to relist in the year ending March 2028.
“如果KDDI和三菱决定让罗森重新上市，我认为那会吸引外资兴趣，”Smithers表示，并以这家便利店连锁为另一例证。
"If KDDI [and] Mitsubishi decided to relist Lawson, then I believe that would attract foreign interest," Smithers said, pointing to the convenience store chain as another example.
私有化后重返股市并不总是成功。在某些情况下，管理层收购积累的巨额商誉和债务拖累业绩，导致重新上市后股价失去上涨动力。
A return to the stock market after privatization does not always succeed. In some cases, heavy goodwill and debt accumulated through management buyouts weigh on performance, causing shares to lose momentum after relisting.
但成功案例正变得更加常见。其中之一是国际电气，该公司从日立分拆并于2023年重新上市。其市值已增至1.7万亿日元，是私有化前的五倍多。
But success stories are becoming more common. One is Kokusai Electric, which was spun off from Hitachi and relisted in 2023. Its market capitalization has grown to 1.7 trillion yen, more than five times its value before it was taken private.