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认识一下试图扭转枪支权利话语的民主党人Meet the Democrats trying to flip the script on gun rights

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从左至右:国会候选人鲍比·普利多和米切尔·伯曼。Congressional candidates Bobby Pulido, left, and Mitchell Berman.

在本期节目中,弗兰克·索普五世和瑞安·诺布尔斯与那些标榜自身枪支资历的民主党候选人进行了交谈。此外,安德烈亚·米切尔深入探讨了唐纳德·特朗普总统在伊朗问题上可能采取的下一步行动。——亚当·沃尔纳认识那些试图扭转枪支权利话语的民主党人作者:弗兰克·索普五世和瑞安·诺布尔斯一群将在下周选票上出现的民主党候选人希望围绕枪支开启一场新的对话,以此作为赢回倾向共和党地区农村选民战略的一部分。

In today’s edition, Frank Thorp V and Ryan Nobles speak with Democratic candidates who are touting their gun credentials. Plus, Andrea Mitchell digs into President Donald Trump’s potential next moves on Iran. — Adam Wollner Meet the Democrats trying to flip the script on gun rights By Frank Thorp V and Ryan Nobles A group of Democratic candidates on the ballot next week are hoping to start a new conversation around guns as part of a strategy to win back rural voters in red-leaning areas.

威斯康星州第一选区:民主党人米切尔·伯曼的广告将他塑造成一位自豪的枪支拥有者和猎人。一则广告显示他一边钓鱼一边佩戴着手枪枪套;另一则广告显示他在打飞碟射击,飞碟上标着“数据中心”。目标在空中炸开后,他6岁的女儿喊道:“好枪法,爸爸!”

Wisconsin’s 1st District: Democrat Mitchell Berman’s ads have portrayed him as a proud gun owner and hunter. One shows him fishing while wearing a handgun in a holster; another shows him skeet-shooting with clay pigeons labeled “Data Centers.”After the target explodes in the air, his 6-year-old daughter yells, “Great shot, Dad!”

“这就是我,”伯曼对NBC新闻说。“我去北方钓鱼时——我来自的地方有狼。我们有——在春季鳟鱼季节,有带着幼崽从洞穴里出来的熊。我们的追踪相机甚至拍到过一只美洲狮。所以,你知道,当我走进树林时,我会随身携带一把手枪用于防身。”

“That’s who I am,” Berman told NBC News. “When I go fishing up north — where I’m from we have wolves. We have — in spring trout season, we have bears that are coming out of their dens with cubs. We’ve even had a mountain lion on our trail camera. So, you know, when I go out into the woods, I carry a sidearm with me for protection.”

他与我党众议员布莱恩·斯泰尔的竞选原本预计不会势均力敌。唐纳德·特朗普总统在2020年和2024年都拿下了该选区,而斯泰尔两年前以10个百分点的优势赢得连任。但民调显示,这场竞选对民主党人来说并非遥不可及。

His race against GOP Rep. Bryan Steil was not expected to be close. President Donald Trump carried the district in 2020 and 2024, and Steil won re-election two years ago by 10 points. But polling has shown the race is within reach for Democrats.

得克萨斯州第15选区:从特哈诺歌手转型为民主党国会候选人的鲍比·普利多毫不掩饰自己对枪支和打猎的热爱。他发布过自己在1英里外射击目标的视频,他的娱乐室里摆满了他打猎获得的战利品。他甚至给长子取名为雷明顿。

Texas’ 15th District: Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer turned Democratic congressional candidate, is not shy about his love for guns and hunting. He’s posted videos of him shooting a target a mile away, and his rec room is lined with the trophies he’s gathered on hunts. He even named his oldest son Remington.

“听着,在农村地区,枪支是一种生活方式,”普利多对NBC新闻说,并表示里奥格兰德河谷的筹款活动更多是在飞碟射击活动中举行,而不是在高尔夫球场上。普利多参选的地区也是特朗普在最近两次总统选举中都赢下的地方。

“Listen, in the rural areas, firearms are a way of life,” Pulido told NBC News, saying that fundraisers in the Rio Grande Valley are more common at skeet shooting events than at golf courses. Pulido is also running in an area that Trump won in the last two presidential elections.

该选区今年早些时候被重新划分,以使其对共和党人更有利,但拉丁裔选民对特朗普的支持转向,加之经济低迷,使共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹面临连任失败的风险。→ 中期选举后等待特朗普的重大决定 安德烈亚·米切尔分析 在竞选活动中,总统唐纳德·特朗普一直自信地承诺,中期选举后油价将大幅下跌——尤其是对农业州至关重要的柴油价格飙升,而这些州可能决定哪个政党赢得参议院。

The district was redrawn earlier this year to make it more favorable for Republicans, but a shift in the Latino vote away from Trump mixed with a struggling economy has put Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz at risk of losing her bid for re-election.→ The big decision awaiting Trump after the midterms Analysis by Andrea Mitchell On the campaign trail, President Donald Trump has been confidently promising that oil prices will drop like a rock after the midterms — especially skyrocketing diesel fuel critical in farm states that could decide which party wins the Senate.

言下之意是,他将在下周之后尝试采取果断行动,结束对伊朗的战争并全面重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。他那些并不隐晦的暗示得到了《华尔街日报》和其他出版物新报道的佐证:美国已告知海湾伙伴,将在中期选举后恢复对伊朗的猛烈而短暂的打击。而以色列鹰派的特朗普盟友本雅明·内塔尼亚胡至少暂时保留了看守总理一职,同时他和他的对手、前陆军参谋长加迪·艾森科特正在争夺多数席位。

Implicit is that he will attempt to do something decisive after next week to end the war against Iran and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His not-so-subtle hints are backed up by new reporting in The Wall Street Journal and other publications that the U.S. has told Gulf partners it will resume intense, brief strikes against Iran after the midterms. And Israel’s hawkish Trump ally Benjamin Netanyahu has at least temporarily retained a caretaker role as prime minister while he and his rival, former Army Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, jockey for a majority.

在以色列复杂的议会体制中,决定性的结果可能需要数周或数月,甚至可能导致再次选举。据《纽约时报》和其他媒体报道,这使内塔尼亚胡掌控着可能重启战争的权力,而这是他在以色列人投票前曾主张的立场。据这些报道,以色列军方和情报部门领导人实际上否决了这一选项,称这会使他们的决策政治化。据许多以色列公民乃至许多长期支持美国的美国人称,尽管以色列的民主在许多方面存在缺陷,但它仍具有军队基本独立的优点。但在美国,批评者担心,在第二届特朗普政府中,军队的文职领导层可能并非如此。

In Israel’s complex parliamentary system, a decisive outcome could take weeks or months, or even lead to another election. That places Netanyahu in control of a potential resumption of the war, a position he had advocated for before Israelis went to the polls, according to The New York Times and other outlets. According to those reports, Israel’s military and intelligence leaders effectively vetoed that option, saying it would politicize their decision-making. As flawed as Israel’s democracy has been in many respects, according to many of its own citizens and even many longtime U.S. supporters, it still has the virtue of a largely independent military. But in the U.S., critics fear that may not be the case with the civilian leadership of the military in the second Trump administration.

在两党过往的历届政府中,国防部长及其主要副手通常是经验丰富的外交政策专家或前军方领导人,他们愿意在正式的国家安全委员会跨部门体系中,向其服务的总统提供独立意见。相互冲突的方案会在提交给总统(三军统帅)之前,经过审慎的讨论流程进行辩论。诚然,偶尔也会出现首脑被虚假叙事误导的情况,例如越战期间国防部长罗伯特·麦克纳马拉提供的叙事;又如伊拉克战争陷入泥潭时,指挥链因小布什总统的国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德这样一个强势人物而被短路。

In past administrations in both political parties, secretaries of defense and their top deputies were usually experienced foreign policy or former military leaders, willing to offer independent opinions to the presidents they served in a formalized National Security Council inter-agency system. Conflicting options were debated in a deliberative process before they were presented to the commander in chief. Yes, on occasion, chief executives were misled by false narratives, like those delivered during the Vietnam War by Defense Secretary Robert McNamara. Or, during the Iraq quagmire, when the chain of command was short-circuited by a powerful personality like President George W. Bush’s defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld.

值得注意的是,拉姆斯菲尔德是在小布什所在政党在2006年中期选举中惨败的第二天清晨被迫离职的。如今,无论其政党在下周中期选举中胜负如何,特朗普都面临着其第二任期内可能最具决定性的抉择:是否“完成任务”、恢复对伊朗的打击。这一决定将无视欧洲领导人的劝告,他们警告称,重启打击将导致油价上涨、潜在的经济衰退,且无法使德黑兰政权更加顺从。

Notably, Rumsfeld was forced out of his role the morning after Bush’s party got hammered in the 2006 midterms. Now, whether his party wins or loses in next week’s midterms, Trump faces what could be the most consequential decision of his second term: Whether to “finish the job” and resume attacking Iran. Such a decision would fly in the face of European leaders who counsel that renewed strikes would lead to higher oil prices, a potential economic downturn, and not produce a more compliant regime in Tehran.

与此同时,利雅得及其他海湾首都正形成一种日益增长的共识,即它们需要寻求与伊朗达成某种谅解,以促使该政权尝试约束其胡塞武装代理人,后者正威胁成为其经济生存的生存性威胁。特朗普面临的问题是,是否遵循国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯的建议,后者是前福克斯新闻主持人,已清洗了五角大楼许多最资深的高级将领,并私下主张恢复对伊朗的军事行动。

At the same time, there is now a growing consensus in Riyadh and other Gulf capitals that they need to find some accommodation with Iran in order to get the regime to try to restrain its Houthi proxies, who threaten to become an existential threat to their economies. The question for Trump is whether to follow the advice of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the former Fox News personality who has purged many of the Pentagon’s most experienced top generals and has privately advocated for resuming military action against Iran.

鹰派可能是对的,即一个被削弱的伊朗可能会被决定性一击击倒,尽管怀疑论者指出,这种战略迄今尚未被证明成功。美国以及全球经济——更不用说特朗普的政治遗产——很可能取决于他在未来几周的决定。政治新闻部暂时就为您播报这些。

The hawks could be right that a weakened Iran could be felled by a decisive blow, though skeptics note that such a strategy has not yet proved successful. The U.S. and global economy — to say nothing of Trump’s legacy — may well depend on what he decides in the next few weeks. That’s all From the Politics Desk for now.

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