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AI淘汰冷邮件后,你才会意识到自己有多怀念它们You’ll Only Realize You Miss Those Cold Emails After AI Kills Them Off

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在 1990 年代末和 2000 年代初于硅谷工作时,Hunter Walk 深知他人的慷慨为他的成功铺平了道路,其中包括他在 Google 长达近十年的职业生涯。多年后,Walk 成为一名风险投资人,有能力为他人打开方便之门,他给自己立下誓言:只要收到看不像垃圾邮件的冷邮件,就一定回复。“我觉得这是我的责任,要把这份善意传递下去,”风险投资公司 Homebrew Management LLC 的合伙人兼联合创始人 Walk 说。

Working in Silicon Valley in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Hunter Walk was keenly aware of how other people’s generosity paved the way to his success, including his nearly decade-long career at Google. So years later when Walk, now a venture capitalist, became the kind of person who could open doors for others, he made himself a promise: Whenever he got a cold email that didn’t seem like spam, he’d respond. “I felt like it was my job to pay it forward,” says Walk, partner and co-founder of the venture capital firm Homebrew Management LLC.

大多数时候,Walk 回复一句礼貌的谢绝。偶尔他会发现真正的机会,比如有次一个冷推销邮件让他投资了一家初创公司,该公司后来以 2.75 亿美元被收购。“仅这一笔投资,就可能让这项做法变得划算,”他说。2018 年,Walk 在博客上写道,他一直更喜欢一封高质量的冷邮件,而非一封敷衍的熟人推荐邮件。因此,他在 9 月底发布另一篇帖子,宣布自己作为“邮件回复狂人”的日子可能屈指可数,这绝非小事。

Most of the time, Walk sends back a respectful thanks but no thanks. Occasionally he happens on a real opportunity, as when a cold pitch led him to invest in a startup that was later acquired for $275 million. “That, in and of itself, might have made this profitable,” he says. In 2018, Walk wrote on his blog about how he’d always preferred a good cold email to a half-hearted warm one. So it was no small thing when he published another post in late September announcing his days as an email completist may be numbered.

“AI 垃圾内容正在毁掉我的收件箱,”帖子标题写道,配图是一门“垃圾大炮”向 Walk 的脸轰炸邮件。

“AI slop is killing my inbox,” read the post, which was accompanied by an illustration of a “slop cannon” propelling mail at Walk’s face.

Walk 说,过去一年里,人工智能代理的兴起推高了他收到的冷邮件数量,却降低了质量,让他承诺回复每一封邮件的做法变得难以维持。过去,许多来信可能只是切题不准;现在读起来却像“Hunter Walk 版疯狂填词游戏” —— 充满了对他从未写过内容的臆造引用、对他最不成功投资的不知情提及,以及对他显而易见的讽刺社交媒体帖子的一本正经解读。“就像一个人在黑暗中穿衣服,开灯一看却说:‘不,我就是要穿条纹配波尔卡圆点,还要穿两只不同颜色的袜子,’”Walk 说。

Over the past year, he says, the rise of artificial intelligence agents has driven up the volume of the cold emails he receives and driven down the quality, making his vow to respond to them unmanageable. Where once much of the inbound mail may have simply missed the mark, now it reads like “Hunter Walk Mad Libs” — riddled with hallucinated references to things he’s never written, oblivious mentions of his least successful investments and earnest interpretations of his most obviously sarcastic social media posts. “It’s like if a person got dressed in the dark, and when they turned the lights on they’re like, ‘No, I meant to wear stripes and polka dots and two different color socks,” Walk says.

插图:亚伦·费尔南德斯为《彭博商业周刊》绘制Illustration: Aaron Fernandez for Bloomberg Businessweek

冷联系在绝大多数情况下都是一种骚扰。极少有人会对陌生号码来电者的内容感兴趣,也没人愿意在未经请求的商业推销邮件或领英信息中费力筛选。在最坏的情况下,这还是一种安全风险。然而,冷联系却是许多职业的生存现实。小企业靠它发展壮大,靠佣金吃饭的销售人员靠它支付账单,往往那些没有强大人脉网络的年轻人也是靠它起步。

Cold outreach is, for the most part, a nuisance. Few people are particularly interested in seeing what the person calling from an unfamiliar number has to say, or in wading through an unsolicited pitch for a business opportunity via email or LinkedIn. At worst it’s a security risk. Yet cold outreach is a fact of life for a wide array of professions. It’s how small businesses grow to be bigger ones, how salespeople working on commission pay their bills and often how young people who don’t have powerful built-in networks get their start.

由于垃圾邮件过滤器、来电显示工具以及人们普遍不愿接听电话的文化心理等因素叠加,冷联系——无论是电话还是邮件——已经衰退了一段时间。人工智能可能正在加剧这一问题。网络托管公司 Hostinger 最近的一份报告分析了 10 亿封匿名邮件,发现只有 13% 的邮件可能是由人类撰写的。其余邮件包含各类自动化信息,涵盖电商促销和安全提醒等,而哥伦比亚大学 2025 年 4 月的一项分析发现,超过一半的垃圾邮件(其中许多带有恶意)是由 AI 生成的。

Cold outreach — by phone and email — has been a dying art form for a while now thanks to a confluence of spam filters, caller ID tools and a general cultural aversion to answering the phone. AI may be exacerbating the issue. One recent report from the web hosting company Hostinger, which analyzed 1 billion anonymized emails, found that just 13% of emails were likely written by humans. While the remainder includes a wide range of automated messages, including e-commerce promotions and security alerts, an April 2025 analysis out of Columbia University found that more than half of all spam, much of it malicious, was AI-generated.

Meta Platforms 公司的 Muse 和 OpenAI 的 Dots 等 AI 智能体的大量涌现,将使数量问题进一步恶化。

The proliferation of AI agents such as Muse from Meta Platforms Inc. and Dots from OpenAI is poised to make the volume problem worse.

难怪人们对完全陌生人的邮件越来越不感冒。如今,那些依赖这份吃力不讨好的媒介谋生的人们,正在重新思考工作方式,并发明新方法以引人注目。

It’s little wonder that people are growing even less receptive to emails from total strangers. Now the people whose livelihoods rely on this thankless medium are rethinking the way they work and inventing new ways to get noticed.

Oscar Duran 是全球金融服务公司 Equiniti Group Ltd. 旗下部门 Notified 的客户主管。他的日常职责包括研究公关公司并通过冷电销向它们推销 Notified 旗下新闻稿发布服务 GlobeNewswire 的订阅。但最近,仅仅让对方接通真人电话就比以往任何时候都更难。Duran 说,至少每周一次,他给潜在客户打电话,接电话的却是他们的 AI 智能体。过去他靠销售行业的看家本领——个性和魅力等——就能激起对方兴趣,现在这些智能体对他的魅力免疫。“那些通常都是死胡同,”他说。

Oscar Duran is an account executive for Notified, a division of the global financial-services firm Equiniti Group Ltd. His day-to-day responsibilities include researching public-relations agencies and cold-calling them to sell subscriptions to Notified’s press release service, GlobeNewswire. But lately, just getting a human on the other side of the line has been harder than ever. At least once a week, Duran says, he calls a potential client only for their AI agent to answer the phone. Where once he could pique someone’s interest by relying on steadfast tools of the sales trade — personality and charisma, among them — now the agents are immune to his charms. “Those tend to be dead ends,” he says.

Duran 说,冷推销现在需要更多创意。最近,在给公关公司 Gale Strategies 联合创始人 Chris Gale 发了邮件、留了语音信箱后,Duran 转而找到 Gale 主持的一场网络研讨会,在评论区给他留言。“信不信由你,这增加了价值,”Gale 说。“我本来打算听他的推销。”事后,当 Duran 跟进时,Gale 认出了他的名字,并通过邮件敲定了交易。但 Duran 承认,这种方法比过去那种“微笑拨号”法难以大规模推广得多,增加了达成任何单笔交易的成本。“你真的得全力以赴,”他说。

Cold-pitching now requires more creativity, Duran says. Recently, after writing emails and leaving voicemails for Chris Gale, co-founder of the PR agency Gale Strategies, Duran resorted to tracking him down in a webcast Gale was hosting and writing to him in the comments. “Believe it or not, that adds value,” Gale says. “I was going to listen to his pitch.”Afterward, when Duran followed up, Gale recognized his name and clinched the deal over email. But Duran admits approaches like this one are a lot harder to scale than the old “smile and dial” method, adding to the cost of securing any single deal. “You really have to lean in,” he says.

经营自己营销传播公司 Austley 的 Leah Dergachev 也将更多冷接触业务转移到了社交媒体上,她说,“在那里更容易以真人的面目出现。”这种转变部分源于她作为企业主的亲身经历:她被大量不确定是否来自真人的邮件淹没。“这里没人做功课,”她说。

Leah Dergachev, who runs her own marketing and communications firm, Austley, has also moved more of her cold outreach to social media, where, she says, “it’s easier to show up as a human.”This shift is driven in part by her own experience as a business owner overwhelmed by a growing number of emails she’s not sure are coming from actual people. “No one is doing their homework here,” she says.

Dergachev 的收件箱被淹没,以至于今年早些时候,她搭建了一个 AI 代理,把收到的所有冷邮件自动分流到两个 Gmail 文件夹——“Nope”(不行)和“Maybe”(也许)。要求她掏 5000 美元去申请迪拜某奖项的“付费参选”骗局?Nope。一家她认识且曾有过邮件往来的公司的新员工发来的冷推销?Maybe。(虽然 Dergachev 不得不自己拼凑这套系统,但像 Pangram Labs Inc. 这样的 AI 检测公司,现在正在推销自己的插件,能自动标记并归档 AI 撰写的推广邮件。)然而,即便 AI 给冷推广制造了更多障碍,一些专业人士发现它也可以成为突围的利器。

Dergachev’s inbox grew so flooded that, earlier this year, she built an AI agent that filters all the cold emails she gets into two Gmail folders labeled “Nope” and “Maybe.”A pay-to-play scheme asking her to fork over $5,000 to apply for some award in Dubai? Nope. A cold pitch from a new employee at a company she knows and has emailed with before? Maybe. (While Dergachev had to jury-rig her own system, AI-detection companies like Pangram Labs Inc. are now marketing their own plug-ins that can automatically label and archive AI-written outreach.) Yet even as AI creates more obstacles for cold outreach, some professionals are finding it can also be a valuable tool for breaking through.

Alex Warmerdam 经营一家名为 VeeBeeDee 的 18 人公司,为全球大型科技公司提供客户挖掘和冷电销服务。传统上,这需要销售人员拿着一长串潜在客户名单逐个拨打,以判断谁值得深入交谈。这意味着要对每个被叫者都依赖通用话术。

Alex Warmerdam runs an 18-person company called VeeBeeDee that provides customer-prospecting and cold-calling services to major global tech companies. Traditionally that’s required salespeople taking a long list of potential prospects and calling them all to determine who’s worth a more intensive conversation. That meant relying on generic scripts for every person they called.

但在过去一年里,VeeBeeDee 为销售人员推出了一个新的“氛围编码”平台,能自动生成每个潜在客户的调研资料——他们可能面临的痛点、有针对性的提问——并将其融入话术。这缩短了调研耗时,让销售人员能拨打更多电话。Warmerdam 表示,这也延长了通话时长,因为它能产生更聚焦的对话。

But over the past year, VeeBeeDee introduced a new vibe-coded platform for its salespeople, which automatically generates research on each prospect — likely pain points they’re experiencing, targeted questions to ask — and works it into the script. That cuts down on the time it takes to do research, which has enabled salespeople to make more calls. It’s also led to an increase in talk time, Warmerdam says, because it generates more focused conversations.

对于 Warmerdam 来说,如今在 LinkedIn 上偶尔出现的关于“冷启动外联已死”的挽词还为时过早。但他表示,“过去 12 个月游戏规则发生了重大变化,我不确定它将走向何方。”每当 AI 挤占人与人之间的互动时,宝贵的人脉连接就有可能在过程中流失。但也还有更大的社会层面利益需要考量。冷启动外联作为一种有效媒介的衰退,可能会让那些已经拥有接触权势人物渠道的人获益,而限制那些没有这种渠道人的机会。

For Warmerdam the requiems for cold outreach you sometimes see on LinkedIn these days are a bit premature. But, he says, “the game has changed significantly in the last 12 months, and I’m not sure where it’s heading.”Anytime AI crowds out human-to-human interaction, there’s a chance valuable connections will get lost in the process. But there are bigger societal stakes to consider too. The decline of cold outreach as an effective medium could benefit those who already have access to powerful people and limit opportunities for those who don’t.

普林斯顿大学计算机科学教授 Arvind Narayanan 近日在 LinkedIn 发文,哀叹自己对收件箱失去了控制,部分原因在于他在印度长大,曾经是那个给研究人员发冷邮件的年轻人。他写道,为未经请求的信息设置门槛,可能预示着“圈子化等级制度”的回归。“如果没有冷邮件,我就不会有今天的成就。”

In a recent LinkedIn post, Princeton University computer science professor Arvind Narayanan lamented the loss of control over his own inbox in part because, having grown up in India, he was once the young person sending cold emails to researchers. Putting up barriers to unsolicited messages could herald a return to “clubby hierarchies,” he wrote. “Without cold emails, I wouldn’t have ended up where I am today.”

风险投资家 Walk 还没下定决心完全停止回复冷启动外联信息。目前,他表示,仍在试着给邮件另一端的人——或物——以信任。但随着量的持续增长,他清楚自己正逼近极限。“这就像你从和一个人握手,变成和一只章鱼握手,再变成和一只蜈蚣握手,”Walk 说,“我依然只有两只手。”

Walk, the venture capitalist, has yet to bring himself to stop replying to cold outreach altogether. For now, he says, he’s still trying to give the person — or thing — on the other side of his emails the benefit of the doubt. But as the volume continues to grow, he knows he’s nearing his limit. “It’s like you go from shaking hands with a person to shaking hands with an octopus to shaking hands with a centipede,” Walk says. “I still only have two hands.”

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