过去几个季度，超大规模云服务商的财报显示资本支出预测不断上调，科技巨头们竞相构建人工智能基础设施，以满足它们所谓的“旺盛需求”。但至少目前来看，微软和Alphabet讲述的故事略有不同。
The past few quarters of hyperscaler earnings have been marked by ever-increasing capital expenditure forecasts as tech giants race to build out artificial intelligence infrastructure to meet what they describe as insatiable demand. At least for the moment, Microsoft Alphabet are telling a slightly different story.
周三，两家公司在财报中公布的资本支出数据均低于分析师预期。微软将全年资本支出预测从1750亿美元下调至1700亿美元，而Alphabet维持1950亿至2050亿美元的指引不变。
In their earnings reports Wednesday, both companies shared capex figures that came up shy of analysts' estimates. Microsoft reduced its capex forecast for the year to $170 billion from $175 billion, and Alphabet held its guidance at $195 billion to $205 billion.
这些数字表明放缓迹象尚不明显，但它们确实代表了AI建设潜在的另一个担忧点。财报发布后，新型云服务商CoreWeave、Nebius、IREN的股价均下跌，作为AI基础设施最大支出者之一的甲骨文股价也随之下跌。
The numbers suggest a slowdown is nowhere in sight, but they do represent another potential point of concern for the AI build-out. Shares of neoclouds CoreWeave Nebius IREN all dropped after the reports, as did Oracle which is one of the biggest spenders on AI infrastructure.
微软首席财务官Amy Hood在公司财报电话会上表示，第三方图形处理单元供应商出现延迟，将导致部分可用产能推迟至2027年上半年。她未透露具体名称，但微软依赖的供应商包括CoreWeave、IREN和Nebius等。
Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said on the software company's earnings call that third-party providers of graphics processing units had delays that will push out some available capacity until the first half of 2027. She didn't provide names, but Microsoft relies on CoreWeave, IREN and Nebius, among others.
Alphabet财务负责人Anat Ashkenazi告诉分析师，外部算力“直到第三季度末才上线”。Alphabet股价在盘后交易中暴跌约10%，因公司营收和盈利均未达预期，并报告自由现金流为负，超过90亿美元。尽管如此，许多Alphabet股东依然保持信心。
Anat Ashkenazi Alphabet's finance chief, told analysts that outside computing power "came online only at the very end of Q3." Alphabet shares tumbled about 10% in extended trading as the company missed on earnings and revenue and reported negative free cash flow of over $9 billion. Plenty of Alphabet shareholders remain faithful.
Check Capital Management董事总经理Chris Ballard在致CNBC的电子邮件中写道：“我们对所见所闻感到满意，并信任管理层在AI支出方面的做法。”
"We are pleased with what we see and what we heard, and trust management's approach to their AI spending," Chris Ballard, managing director of Check Capital Management, wrote in an email to CNBC.
投资者将在亚马逊周四收盘后发布财报时，获得本季度超大规模数据中心运营商资本支出的最终数据。在Meta上周的财报中，该公司表示预计全年资本支出为1350亿至1450亿美元，将区间下限从1300亿美元上调。与Alphabet类似，Meta股价因公司报告自由现金流为负而下跌。
Investors will get a final read on hyperscaler capex for the quarter when Amazon reports results after the close on Thursday. In Meta's earnings report last week, the company said it expects full-year capex of $135 billion to $145 billion, raising the bottom of the range from $130 billion. Like with Alphabet, Meta shares sank as the company reported negative free cash flow.
微软此前曾出现新兴“新云”合作伙伴延期交付的情况，但随着Anthropic准备上市，此类延期变得更为关键。Anthropic的大部分算力需求依赖亚马逊、谷歌和微软的基础设施，此外还使用SpaceX、Lambda和Nscale的产能；Nscale于9月提交上市申请，但数周来未更新招股说明书。
Delays from emerging neocloud partners have occurred before at Microsoft, but they're more critical now as Anthropic gets set to go public. Anthropic counts on infrastructure from Amazon, Google and Microsoft for much of its computing needs, alongside capacity from SpaceX Lambda and Nscale, which filed to go public in September but hasn't updated its prospectus in weeks.
今年多次出现Anthropic的Claude助手因需求激增而不可用的情况。竞争对手OpenAI表示2027年上市的可能性较大，同样持续需要更多产能。
At times this year, Anthropic's Claude assistant has been unavailable due to climbing demand. Rival OpenAI which has said an IPO in 2027 is likely, is also in constant need of more capacity.
市场面临的一大挑战是，“新云”公司需要数十亿美元外部资金推动扩建，却不具备投资级信用评级。随着利率上升、对其债务负担的担忧加剧，贷款方正在退出市场。
One big challenge for the market is that the neoclouds require billions of dollars in outside capital to fuel their buildouts but don't have investment-grade credit ratings. With interest rates rising and concerns about their debt loads mounting, lenders are pulling out of the market.
上周，Gartner分析师向CNBC透露，该机构预测到2030年，80%的“新云”公司将要么被收购，要么彻底停止运营。
Last week, analysts at Gartner shared with CNBC the firm's prediction that, by 2030, 80% of neocloud companies will either be absorbed or completely cease operations.
英伟达支持的、总部位于澳大利亚的“新云”公司Firmus本月早些时候撤回上市计划，尽管该公司拥有来自Meta和OpenAI的大量使用承诺。以上情况并不意味着AI建设已结束，甚至远未接近平台期。
Nvidia backed neocloud Firmus, based in Australia, withdrew plans to go public earlier this month, despite boasting large usage commitments from Meta and OpenAI. None of that is to suggest the AI buildout is over, or even close to plateauing.
微软首席财务官胡德周三表示，得益于组件成本上升和交付延期，她预计2027年上半年资本支出将加速增长。作为一个群体，超大规模运营商的资本支出预计明年将超过1万亿美元，据一些估算，此后将继续增长。
Microsoft's Hood said Wednesday that she sees capital spending accelerating in the first half of 2027 thanks to higher component costs and the delayed deliveries. As a group, hyperscaler capex is expected to top $1 trillion next year and, according to some estimates continue rising from there.
尽管第三季度资本支出不及预期，投资者仍对微软周三的财报表示欢迎，该公司营收和每股收益均超出预期，其Azure云业务销售额增长48%。
Despite the third-quarter capex shortfall, investors cheered Microsoft's report on Wednesday as the company beat earnings and revenue estimates, driven by 48% sales growth in its Azure cloud business.
“我们认为本季度进一步验证了微软由AI引领的增长机遇，”Cantor分析师Thomas Blakey率领的团队在周三发给客户的报告中写道。他们建议买入微软股票，并将一年目标股价从608美元上调至630美元。
"We view the quarter as further validation of Microsoft's AI-led growth opportunity," Cantor analysts led by Thomas Blakey wrote in a Wednesday note to clients. They recommend buying Microsoft stock, and they pushed up their one-year price target to $630 from $608.
Bespoke的Hickey表示，这可能是谷歌作为上市公司以来最糟糕的财报反应。
Could be Google's worst earnings reaction as a public company, says Bespoke's Hickey