礼来公司（LLY.N）周四上调了全年营收预期，并超预期完成第三季度盈利，这得益于注射式减重药物需求激增，可能缓解投资者对美国政府医保计划价格下行的担忧。
Lilly (LLY.N) raised its full-year revenue forecast and beat third-quarter earnings expectations on Thursday, propelled by surging demand for injectable weight-loss drugs that could allay investor concerns about price erosion in US government health plans.
这家总部位于印第安纳波利斯的制药商现在预计全年营收将达到910亿至920亿美元，凸显了其在数十亿美元规模的GLP-1市场上对丹麦竞争对手诺和诺德（NOVOb.CO）不断扩大的领先优势，这也推动礼来市值达到1.2万亿美元。
The Indianapolis-based drugmaker now expects full-year revenue of $91 billion to $92 billion, underscoring its expanding lead in the multibillion-dollar GLP-1 market over Danish rival Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) that has propelled Lilly to a $1.2 trillion market valuation.
然而，礼来下调了调整后利润预期，至每股35.00至36.00美元，因为近期交易产生的每股4.57美元收购研发费用，超过了中值处每股4.07美元的基础利润指引改善幅度。礼来表示，这些在第三季度计提的费用，主要与收购AtaiBeckley和Curevo有关。
Lilly trimmed its adjusted profit outlook, however, to $35.00 to $36.00 per share, as $4.57 per share of acquired research charges from recent deals more than offset a $4.07 improvement in underlying profit guidance at the midpoint. The charges, taken in the third quarter, are primarily related to the acquisitions of AtaiBeckley and Curevo, Lilly said.
礼来一直在通过内部研发、小额收购和合作伙伴关系，为GLP-1药物之外的增长进行投资。盘前交易中，该公司股价上涨近5%，至1350美元。
Lilly has been investing for growth beyond its GLP-1 drugs through internal research, tuck-in acquisitions and partnerships. Shares of the company rose nearly 5% to $1,350 before the bell.
礼来此前预计营收为850亿至870亿美元，每股收益为35.50至36.50美元。根据LSEG数据，礼来第三季度营收为244亿美元，超出分析师预期的226.1亿美元；调整后每股收益为7.48美元，超出预期的6.26美元。
Lilly previously forecast revenue of $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion and earnings of $35.50 to $36.50 per Lilly posted third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, topping analyst expectations of $22.61 billion, while adjusted profit of $7.48 per share beat estimates of $6.26, according to LSEG data.
营收包含约9亿美元的利好因素，主要是与糖尿病药物Jardiance（捷诺达）挂钩的4.1亿美元里程碑付款，礼来表示这是其预期收到的最后一笔此类款项，以及回扣和折扣估计的有利调整。
Revenue included about $900 million of benefits, primarily $410 million of milestone payments tied to diabetes drug Jardiance, which Lilly said are the last it expects to receive, and favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates.
根据LSEG数据，第三季度糖尿病药物Mounjaro（莫尼捷）销售额达到107.2亿美元，超出华尔街预期的101.6亿美元；其相关肥胖症注射剂Zepbound（泽普邦）收入为53.5亿美元，高于预期的50.9亿美元。
Third-quarter sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro reached $10.72 billion, topping Wall Street expectations of $10.16 billion, according to LSEG data, while its related obesity injection Zepbound brought in $5.35 billion versus estimates of $5.09 billion.
强劲的销售将有助于缓解市场担忧，即每月50美元的医保患者价格标签带来的严重价格侵蚀可能会超过爆炸式的销量增长。伯恩斯坦分析师表示，数据显示，礼来公司已捕获了近期开始接受GLP-1药物治疗的约70万名医保患者中约70%的患者。
The robust sales will help ease market worries that severe price erosion from the $50-a-month price tag for Medicare recipients would outweigh explosive volume gains. Analysts at Bernstein said data showed that Lilly had captured about 70% of the 700,000 Medicare patients who recently initiated treatment with a GLP-1 medication.
虽然新的美国试点计划为可能数百万使用面向65岁及以上人群的政府医保计划的人群解锁了覆盖，但礼来公司大部分未报销的销量历史上一直通过其每月449美元的自付平台进行，这使得折扣将如何影响长期利润率的问题变得至关重要。
While the new US pilot unlocked coverage for potentially millions who use the government's Medicare program for people aged 65 and over, the bulk of Lilly's non-reimbursed volume has historically moved through its $449-a-month cash-pay platform, raising stakes over how the discounts will impact long-term margins.
礼来公司较新的减肥药Foundayo带来1.84亿美元收入，而分析师预估为2.1686亿美元。
Lilly's newer obesity pill Foundayo brought in $184 million, compared with analyst estimates of $216.86 million.
投资者正密切关注Foundayo的推出，以此作为关键测试，看看礼来公司能否减弱诺和诺德凭借其口服Wegovy所拥有的先发优势。
Investors are closely tracking the Foundayo rollout as a key test of whether Lilly can blunt Novo Nordisk's first-mover edge with its oral Wegovy.
虽然美国境内Foundayo的初始处方量落后于其丹麦竞争对手，但一些投资者淡化了这种早期滞后，预计随着礼来公司药片在更多国际市场推出，它将成为重要的增长驱动力。
While initial US Foundayo prescriptions have trailed its Danish rival, some investors have downplayed the early lag, expecting the Lilly pill to emerge as a significant growth driver as it launches in more international markets.
在独立研究中，口服Wegovy在64周内导致体重减轻约14%，而Foundayo在72周内导致体重减轻约11%。
Oral Wegovy led to about a 14% reduction in body weight over 64 weeks, and Foundayo about an 11% reduction over 72 weeks, in separate studies.
Foundayo今年早些时候在美国和英国推出，可能最早在今年年底开始在其他欧洲国家销售。
Foundayo was launched in the US and Britain earlier this year and could potentially begin selling in other European countries by year-end.
礼来公司第三季度实现价格下降15%，抵消了销量53%增长的一部分。美国价格下降7%，礼来公司将其主要归因于Zepbound，并表示这一下降部分被对回扣和折扣估计的调整所抵消。美国境外，价格下降29%，主要由Mounjaro被列入中国国家医保药品目录所驱动。
Lilly's realized prices fell 15% in the third quarter, offsetting part of a 53% rise in volume. US prices fell 7%, a decline Lilly attributed primarily to Zepbound and said was partly offset by adjustments to rebate and discount estimates. Outside the US, prices fell 29%, driven mainly by Mounjaro's inclusion on China's national reimbursement drug list.
即使礼来公司的减肥注射剂保持商业势头，华尔街的注意力也正转向雷他鲁肽，该公司下一代减肥候选药物计划明年提交监管申请。
Even as Lilly's obesity injections maintain commercial momentum, Wall Street's attention is shifting toward retatrutide, the company's next-generation weight-loss candidate slated for regulatory submission next year.
在中期临床试验中，瑞马鲁肽已显示出可使体重平均减轻 24%，这一结果超过了已上市药物的疗效。
Retatrutide has been shown to drive average weight loss of 24% in midstage trials, topping results from drugs already on the market.