咸海长期以来一直是生态灾难的代名词。它曾是世界上第四大湖泊，自20世纪60年代苏联为促进棉花生产而改道流入该湖的河流以来，一直在持续干涸。裸露的湖床变成了一片沙漠，遍布着化肥和工业废料的有毒残留物。强风将沙地中的有毒粉尘吹向附近社区。
THE ARAL SEA has long been a byword for ecological disaster. Once the world’s fourth-largest lake, it has been steadily drying up since the 1960s, when the Soviet Union diverted rivers flowing into it to boost cotton production. The lake’s exposed bed became a desert lined with the toxic remnants of fertilisers and industrial waste. Strong winds blow poisonous dust from the sands onto nearby communities.
但咸海尚未消失。两片小得多的水域仍然横跨在这片新沙漠的边缘。南部残存水域位于湖床的一条沟槽中，依靠附近含水层的流入维持。它或许还能多存续一段时间，但几乎无法将其扩大。
But the Aral is not gone yet. Two much smaller bodies of water still straddle the edges of the new desert. The southern remnant lies in a trench in the lake’s bed. It survives with inflows from nearby aquifers. It may last a bit longer though little can be done to enlarge it.
不过，北咸海的情况则不同。它的周边地势较高，除了狭窄的科卡拉尔海峡外，将其与沙漠隔开。哈萨克斯坦于2005年在该缺口处修建了大坝，但多年来一直难以将这片残存湖泊重新蓄满。
The North Aral is a different story, though. It is bordered by higher ground, which cuts it off from the desert except for the tiny Kokaral Strait. Kazakhstan dammed that gap in 2005, but for many years struggled to refill the rump lake.
然而，复苏终于开始显现。初步结果令人鼓舞。自2022年以来，其水量增加了四分之一。哈萨克斯坦政府表示，已收复870平方公里的沙漠，并将湖水盐度降低了75%。曾经消失的鱼类已被重新引入：当地人去年捕获了8000吨。在计划对科卡拉尔大坝进行升级改造后，哈萨克斯坦希望将湖水蓄至自1987年北咸海分离以来的最高水位。
Finally, however, a recovery is beginning. Early results are promising. Since 2022 its volume has risen by a quarter. Kazakhstan’s government says it has reclaimed 870 square kilometres of desert and lowered the lake’s salinity by 75%. Fish, which had vanished, have been reintroduced: locals caught 8,000 tonnes last year. After planned upgrades to the Kokaral Dam, Kazakhstan hopes to fill the lake to its highest level since the North Aral split off in 1987.
哈萨克斯坦的成功归功于多个因素。锡尔河沿岸的运河和大坝升级改造，加上意外偏高的季节性来水量，构成了2022年以来大部分增益的来源。2025年，该国与上游邻国吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦谈判达成了一项新的水资源共享协议，向吉尔吉斯斯坦出售电力以换取更多水资源。
Kazakhstan’s success is thanks to several factors. Canal and dam upgrades along the Syr Darya river coupled with unexpectedly high seasonal inflows account for most of the gains since 2022. In 2025 the country negotiated a new water-sharing agreement with its upriver neighbours, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, selling the former electricity in exchange for more water.
但问题依然存在。哈萨克斯坦一侧约60%的水被农业吸收，但该国不到四分之一的农民使用喷灌或滴灌等节水技术。现有基础设施年久失修。锡尔河也面临风险。为其供水的冰川正在缓慢融化。入流量已经低于夏季用水高峰期的需求。尽管如此，北咸海已开始让那些预言其最终消亡的悲观论者落空。
But problems persist. Roughly 60% of the water on Kazakhstan’s side is soaked up by agriculture, but less than a quarter of the country’s farmers use water-saving technologies like sprinklers or drip-fed irrigation. Existing infrastructure is in disrepair. The Syr Darya is at risk, too. The glaciers that feed it are slowly melting. Inflows have already fallen below peak summer demand. All the same, the North Aral Sea has begun to defy doomsayers predicting its ultimate extinction.