第二次世界大战结束后不久，美国开始寻找一个地方来试验其快速扩张的核武库。它最终选定了马绍尔群岛——当时由美国管理的一群散布在太平洋广阔海域的环礁。在12年间，美国进行了67次核试验。由此产生的辐射对马绍尔人的健康造成了持久损害，但也塑造了这些岛屿与美国的关系。
SOON AFTER the second world war, America went looking for a place to test its fast-expanding nuclear arsenal. It settled on the Marshall Islands, then an American-administered collection of atolls scattered across a vast stretch of the Pacific. Over 12 years the Americans carried out 67 nuclear tests. The resulting radiation did lasting damage to the health of the Marshallese, but it also shaped the islands’ relationship with America.
如今，这个拥有4.2万人口的国家已经独立，但根据一项“自由联合协定”从美国获得援助，以换取允许美军进入。其中一部分资金现在正资助一种不同类型的实验。近一年来，马绍尔群岛的每位公民（包括儿童）每季度都能领取约200美元。具体金额有所不同，因为政府将所有登记在册者平均分配一个固定资金池。
These days the country of 42,000 people is independent, but gets aid from America under a “compact of free association” in exchange for allowing it military access. Some of that money is now financing a different sort of experiment. For nearly a year every citizen in the Marshall Islands, including children, has been getting a quarterly payment of about $200. The precise amount varies, because the government shares a fixed pot equally among all those enrolled.
该项目名为“Enra Jen Lale Rara”（分享餐盘，关爱身边的人），据信是世界上首个全国性全民基本收入（UBI）计划。UBI指的是政府无条件向所有公民发放、作为工资补充或替代的款项。（其他UBI实验仅覆盖小群体，或个别城市、省份或村庄群组。）财政部长兼该计划的设计者戴维·保罗曾表示，在人们对生活成本的担忧中，这将给马绍尔人带来“安心”。他还希望这能给他们一个留在岛上的理由。根据该国与美国的协定，马绍尔公民可以自由在美国居住和工作（已有约4.4万人这样做）。
The programme, Enra Jen Lale Rara (sharing plates to care for those around us), is believed to be the world’s first national universal basic income (UBI) scheme, a term that describes unconditional government payment given to all citizens as a supplement to or replacement for wages. (Other UBI experiments have covered small groups of people, or individual cities, provinces or groups of villages.) David Paul, the finance minister and the programme’s architect, has said it will give Marshallese “peace of mind” amid concerns over the cost of living. He also hopes it will hand them a reason to stay on the islands. Under the country’s compact with America, Marshallese citizens can live and work there freely (around 44,000 already do so).
官员们坚持认为，这笔款项并非意在取代工作；它也远不足以做到这一点。每年约800美元，仅相当于马绍尔群岛人均收入的约十分之一。不过，按美国的标准衡量，这相当于每年约9000美元的支付，是一笔不可小觑的金额。毫不意外，这些转移支付颇受欢迎：几乎所有人都已登记加入。然而，与该国财政部合作的经济学家斯特凡尼娅·波齐表示，现在就对其对劳动力供给的影响下结论还为时过早。
Officials insist that the payment is not intended to replace work; it is not nearly big enough to do that. At around $800 a year, it amounts to only about a tenth of the Marshall Islands’ income per person. Still, in American terms, that would be equivalent to an annual payment of roughly $9,000, a not inconsiderable sum. Unsurprisingly, the transfers are popular: almost everyone has enrolled. It is however too early to draw conclusions about the impact on labour supply, says Stefania Pozzi, an economist working with the country’s finance ministry.
不过，对消费的影响则更为确定。在发放款项的日子，首都马朱罗的办公室人去楼空——该国大部分劳动力都受雇于此——工人们排队领取支票；不久之后，随着他们把钱花出去，商店和餐馆便挤满了人。《马绍尔群岛日报》编辑吉夫·约翰逊说：“家庭从中获益巨大。”他说，大部分支出用于食品，但人们也用这些现金进行更大的采购，比如空调和割草机。
More certain, though, are the impacts on consumption. On payment days offices empty in Majuro, the capital, which employs the bulk of the labour force, as workers queue to collect cheques; soon afterwards shops and restaurants fill up as they spend the money. “Families have found it hugely beneficial,” says Giff Johnson, editor of the Marshall Islands Journal. Much of the spending has been on food, but people have also used the cash for bigger purchases, like air-conditioners and lawnmowers, he says.
通胀——现金转移支付的另一个常见担忧——已经上升，但官员们主要将其归因于伊朗战争带来的经济冲击，而非专门归咎于全民基本收入。该计划正惠及该国较为偏远的岛屿上的民众，其中许多岛屿没有银行、自动取款机或可靠的互联网。
Inflation, another common concern with cash transfers, has risen, but officials attribute that largely to the economic shock from the war in Iran rather than specifically to the UBI. The scheme is reaching people on the country’s more remote islands, many of which lack banks, ATMs or reliable internet.
马绍尔群岛与美国的《自由联系协定》帮助其克服了全民基本收入的最大障碍。该计划的成本高达GDP的约8%，但由一只美国信托基金支付，该基金目前价值约18亿美元。尽管如此，国际货币基金组织担心，这些款项已经在取代更有用的长期基础设施和气候适应支出。甚至在2025年11月首次发放之前，它就建议在“第一个可用且可行的机会”以有针对性的计划取代全民基本收入。马绍尔群岛政府辩称，确定谁应符合资格将既昂贵又繁琐。
The Marshall Islands’ compact with America has helped it overcome the biggest obstacle to UBI. The cost of it amounts to a whopping 8% or so of GDP, but is paid from an American trust fund, now worth around $1.8bn. Still, the IMF worries that the payments are already taking the place of more useful long-term spending on infrastructure and climate adaptation. Even before the first payment in November 2025, it recommended replacing the UBI with a targeted scheme at the “first available and feasible opportunity”. The Marshallese government argues that deciding who should qualify would be costly and cumbersome.
目前尚无对该方案的评估结果公布，但许多国家都在密切关注这一实验。太平洋岛国经济体在某种程度上都依赖汇款，且易受经济冲击影响。但常规的社会保护措施往往很难在散居各岛屿的人口当中实施。
No evaluation of the scheme has yet been published, but plenty of countries are watching the experiment closely. All the economies of island-states in the Pacific are to some extent dependent on remittances and are vulnerable to economic shocks. But conventional social-protection efforts are often very difficult to implement in populations that are scattered across the ocean’s islands.
大国也应当对此感兴趣。人工智能的出现及其取代就业的潜力，使全民基本收入的话题在各地重新升温。对人工智能的担忧，是新西兰较新的中间派团体“机遇党”在下月选举前以“公民收入”为竞选主张的原因之一。马绍尔群岛的全民基本收入规模或许很小，但其经验教训可能远远超越其海岸。
Bigger countries should be interested too. The emergence of artificial intelligence and its potential for job displacement have revived talk of UBI everywhere. AI-induced concern is one reason the Opportunity Party, a newish centrist group in New Zealand, is campaigning on a “citizen’s income” ahead of elections next month. The Marshall Islands’ UBI may be tiny, but its lessons could travel far beyond its shores.