东京 -- 武田药品工业计划从即将密集上市的三款新药中，在销售高峰期获得高达 110 亿美元的收入，此前的增长投资开始结出成果。
TOKYO -- Takeda Pharmaceutical aims to reap up to $11 billion in peak revenue from a trio of drugs being launched in rapid succession as past growth investments bear fruit.
武田药品总裁兼首席执行官 Julie Kim（朱莉·金）周四在业绩说明会上表现出信心，强调这三款药物——发作性睡病治疗药 Orzeyful、血液疾病药 Mimrylo 以及银屑病药 Zasocitinib——将推动增长，同时公司将通过结构性改革降低成本。
Takeda President and CEO Julie Kim sounded confident in an earnings call on Thursday, stressing that the three drugs -- narcolepsy treatment Orzeyful, blood disorder drug Mimrylo and psoriasis medicine Zasocitinib -- will drive growth while the company reduces costs through structural reforms.
金在会上表示：“随着这些举措见效，实现的节省资金正在为新药上市和晚期管线提供资金支持，同时保护核心营业利润。”
"As these initiatives gain traction, the realized savings are funding new launches and late-stage pipeline while protecting core operating profits," Kim said during the call.
武田药品预计，在截至明年 3 月的本财年将实现 2090 亿日元（约 13.2 亿美元）的合并净利润。这扭转了上一财年 1523 亿日元的亏损，也上修了此前 1660 亿日元的盈利预期。
Takeda projects it will earn a consolidated net profit of 209 billion yen ($1.32 billion) during the current fiscal year that ends in March. This is a reversal from the 152.3 billion yen loss last fiscal year and an upward revision from the previous 166 billion yen profit forecast.
Orzeyful 于 10 月 15 日在日本和中国上市，预计将于 11 月进入美国市场。峰值销售额预计为 20 亿至 30 亿美元。
Orzeyful was launched on Oct. 15 in Japan and China and is due to hit the U.S. market in November. Peak sales are projected at $2 billion to $3 billion.
Mimrylo 8 月在美国推出。Zasocitinib 的申请于 9 月获美国受理。这两款药物预计从下一财年起将对收入产生显著贡献。
Mimrylo was rolled out in the U.S. in August. The application for Zasocitinib was accepted by the U.S. in September. The two drugs are anticipated to significantly contribute to revenue starting in next fiscal year.
三款药物的峰值销售额合计有望达到 60 亿至 110 亿美元。
Combined peak sales of the three drugs have the potential to reach between $6 billion and $11 billion.
野村证券分析师松原弘幸表示：“这是增长投资结出成果的阶段。中长期增长的坚实业务基础正在建立。”据 QUICK 共识分析师调查，武田药品 2027 财年合并营业利润预计将达到 5703 亿日元，将比本财年公司预期高出 20% 以上。
"This is a phase where growth investments are bearing fruit," said Hiroyuki Matsubara, analyst at Nomura Securities. "A solid business foundation for medium- to long-term growth is being established." According to a QUICK Consensus analyst survey, Takeda's fiscal 2027 consolidated operating profit is expected to reach 570.3 billion yen, which would outperform the company's forecast for this fiscal year by more than 20%.
武田制药在20世纪90年代推出了一系列重磅药物，并在2010年代初发布了新药，这些新药后来成长为最畅销的产品。但自2018年武田决定大规模收购制药商夏尔以来，公司股价一直低迷。投资者此前对公司将背负的巨额债务表达了持续担忧。
Takeda launched a series of blockbuster drugs in the 1990s and also released new drugs in the early 2010s that grew into top sellers. But the company's stock price has been sluggish since 2018, when Takeda decided on a massive acquisition of the drugmaker Shire. Investors had expressed persistent concerns about the large debt the company would incur.
近年来，随着这三款药物的稳步发展，这些疑虑有所缓解。截至周四，武田股价升至6471日元，创下八年零九个月以来的最高水平。市净率也升至1.3倍，高于估值偏低的门槛。
Those qualms have eased in recent years, driven by steady development of the three drugs. As of Thursday, Takeda's stock rose to 6,471 yen, the highest level in eight years and nine months. The price-to-book ratio has also risen to 1.3, a multiple above the undervaluation threshold.
尽管如此，摩根士丹利三菱日联证券分析师村冈真一郎表示：“当前股价尚未充分反映主要新药的成长潜力。”
Nevertheless, "the current stock price does not yet fully reflect the growth potential of the major new drugs," said Shinichiro Muraoka, analyst at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.
武田面临来自知名制药商的激烈竞争。礼来和阿尔凯默斯正在开展发作性睡病治疗的临床试验。与此同时，Orzeyful的销售额预计还要再过约十年才会达到峰值。
Takeda faces fierce competition from big-name drugmakers. Eli Lilly and Alkermes are conducting clinical trials on narcolepsy treatment. Meanwhile, Orzeyful sales are not expected to peak for about another decade.