土耳其伊兹密尔，10月30日电——2024年3月，土耳其反对派在地方选举中取得巨大胜利，其领导人当时认为，他们终于找到了击败长期执政的总统塔伊普·埃尔多安的方法。
IZMIR, Turkey, Oct 30 - When Turkey's opposition made big gains in local elections in March 2024, its leaders believed they had finally found a way to defeat long-serving President Tayyip Erdogan.
两年多过去了，反对派的主要总统竞争者入狱，其主力政党因法院裁决而分裂，部分当选市长的反对派人物倒戈至埃尔多安的正义与发展党（AK Party）。
More than two years later, the opposition's leading presidential challenger is in prison, its main party has been split by a court ruling and some of the opposition figures who were elected as mayors have defected to Erdogan's AK Party.
反对派依然挺立不屈。他们表示，依然信任民主选举，认为选民将在2028年举行的下届全国大选中，拒绝他们所认为的、针对政府反对派的政治动机法律打压。
The opposition remains defiant. It says it retains faith in democratic elections and that voters will reject what they see as a politically motivated legal crackdown on government opponents in the next national elections, due in 2028.
反对派现在面临的挑战，是如何利用并维持民众的愤怒情绪，直到那时为止。他们指责埃尔多安实施政府胁迫，后者已以总理和总统身份执政23年。
The opposition now faces a challenge to harness and sustain people's anger until then over what they say is government coercion under Erdogan, who has been in power as prime minister and then president for 23 years. "I do not believe this anger has disappeared," said Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of the IstanPol Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank.
“我不认为这种愤怒已经消失，”伊斯坦堡智库IstanPol研究所联合创始人兼联合主任塞伦·塞尔文·科尔马兹说。
"However, unless this anger is channelled into political energy or organisational energy, it will fade away.
“然而，除非这种愤怒被引导为政治能量或组织能量，否则它将逐渐消退。它可能演变为失望、绝望或冷漠。”政府否认针对反对派的法律案件具有政治动机，并称司法机关独立运作。
It may evolve into disappointment, hopelessness or apathy." The government denies the legal cases against its opponents are politically motivated and says the judiciary operates independently.
伊兹密尔市长倒戈 没有哪个地方能比爱琴海沿岸的西部城市伊兹密尔更能体现反对派面临的挑战。
IZMIR MAYOR'S DEFECTION Few places capture the opposition's challenges better than Izmir in western Turkey on the Aegean coast.
正义与发展党从未能在选票箱中赢得伊兹密尔——这个拥有约450万居民的土耳其第三大城市——但本月，2024年以反对派候选人身份当选的市长杰米尔·图盖伊倒戈至埃尔多安的政党。
The AK Party has never managed to win Izmir, the country's third-largest city with about 4.5 million residents, at the ballot box, but this month Mayor Cemil Tugay, who was elected on an opposition ticket in 2024, defected to Erdogan's party.
图盖伊的倒戈，在长期被视为土耳其世俗、社会民主反对派核心腹地的地方，构成了重大的象征性挫折。
Tugay's defection represents a significant symbolic setback in what has long been regarded as the heartland of Turkey's secular, social democratic opposition.
图盖表示，他这样做是因为这“符合伊兹密尔的最大利益”，而埃尔多安将反对派关于图盖在压力下倒戈的指控斥为诽谤。
Tugay says he did so because it was "in the best interests of Izmir" and Erdogan has dismissed as slander opposition allegations that Tugay switched parties under pressure.
但反对派新党伊兹密尔分部负责人表示有信心，该市选民将在下届大选中用选票表达对图盖此举及其所描绘的政府胁迫的反对。
But the opposition New Party's head in Izmir expressed confidence that voters in the city would show their opposition to Tugay's move and what he depicted as government coercion when they vote in the next national elections.
“政府以为能靠胁迫主导这一进程，但它将在大选中意识到自己犯了一个严重的误判，”新党伊兹密尔分部负责人查加泰·居奇对路透社表示。
"The government believes it can steer this process through coercion, but it will realise that it has made a grave miscalculation in the election," Cagatay Guc, the New Party's head in Izmir, told Reuters.
由政界人士厄兹居尔·厄泽尔领导的新党在图盖倒戈前曾发起抗议，并认为许多当地选民反对他改换门庭。在接受路透社采访时，许多伊兹密尔居民批评了图盖的决定。
The New Party, which is led nationally by politician Ozgur Ozel, staged protests before Tugay's defection and believes many local voters oppose his change of allegiance. terviews with Reuters, many Izmir residents criticised Tugay's decision.
“是图盖加入了正义与发展党，而不是伊兹密尔人民，”一名只愿透露名字叫科赖的50岁男子说，他因担心遭到报复而不愿透露全名。“正义与发展党永远赢不了伊兹密尔人民的心。”
"It was Tugay who joined the AK Party, not the people of Izmir," said a 50-year-old man who gave his name only as Koray for fear of recriminations. "The AK Party can never win over the people of Izmir."
一名只愿透露名字叫哈利德的67岁女子说：“我们反正从来没投过那边（正义与发展党）的票……现在我们要投给厄兹居尔·厄泽尔了。”一些居民表示，他们同意图盖的观点，认为作为土耳其最大的工业和贸易中心之一，伊兹密尔若由执政党市长领导，可能会获得更多市政服务。
A 67-year-old woman who gave her name only as Halide said: "We have never voted for that side (the AK Party) anyway ... and now we'll vote for Ozgur Ozel." Some residents said they agreed with Tugay that Izmir, one of the largest industrial and trade centres of Turkey, might receive more municipal services under a mayor representing the governing party.
“作为伊兹密尔居民，我希望看到我们城市有更多市政服务……有了政府必要的支持，这座城市将重获新生，我对此充满希望，”一名只愿透露名字叫伊萨的46岁男子说。一名居民认为图盖“别无选择”，只能倒戈。
"As a resident of Izmir, I want to see more municipal services in our city... With the necessary support from government, this city will be rebuilt, I hope," said a 46-year-old man, who gave his name only as Isa.
“要么进锡利夫里监狱，要么倒戈继续干，”53岁的阿尔帕伊说，他指的是伊斯坦布尔以西的一座监狱，许多反对派人士被关押在那里。对变革失去信心？
One resident suggested Tugay had "no other choice" than to switch parties. "He would either end up in Silivri, or carry on by switching parties," said 53-year-old Alpay, referring to a prison west of Istanbul where many opposition figures are jailed.
西利夫里监狱的囚犯中包括伊斯坦布尔市长埃克雷姆·伊马姆奥卢，他被视为埃尔多安的主要竞争对手。在2024年地方选举中，伊马姆奥卢代表共和人民党（CHP）连任伊斯坦布尔市长，该党获得37.8%的选票，并保住了安卡拉、伊兹密尔及许多其他大城市。
LOSING FAITH IN CHANGE? Inmates at Silivri include Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is regarded as Erdogan's chief rival.
这些胜利鼓舞了反对派，使其将控制土耳其最大城市视为在全国范围内挑战埃尔多安的平台。
In the 2024 local elections, Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul for a second term from the Republican People's Party (CHP), which won 37.8% of the vote and also retained Ankara, Izmir and many other big cities.
数十名市长和数百名市政官员如今与伊马姆奥卢一同入狱，伊马姆奥卢正因他否认的腐败指控等待受审。
Those successes encouraged the opposition to view control of Turkey's biggest cities as a platform from which to challenge Erdogan nationally.
共和人民党在法院裁决罢免厄兹尔领导人职务并恢复前领导人凯末尔·克勒奇达尔奥卢职务后出现分裂。作为伊马姆奥卢的亲密盟友，厄兹尔成立了新党，希望借助选民对打压反对派的愤怒维持声势。
Dozens of mayors and hundreds of municipal officials are now in jail along with Imamoglu, who is awaiting trial on corruption charges which he denies. The CHP has been split after a court ruling ousting Ozel as its leader and reinstating former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
“如果选民失去了变革可能的信心，他们为什么还要费心去投票？”伊兹密尔爱琴大学政治学教授坦久·托顺说。“大选的投票率可能会略微下降，特别是反对党的选民。”
Ozel, a close ally of Imamoglu, launched the New Party in response, hoping to sustain voter anger over the pressure on the opposition. "If voters lose faith that change is possible, why would they bother to vote?" said Tanju Tosun, a political science professor at Ege University in Izmir. "Voter turnout in the general election may fall slightly, particularly amongst voters of the opposition parties."
土耳其下一次总统和议会选举定于2028年5月举行，但一名总统顾问本月表示，选举很可能会比预期略早举行。这样做将使埃尔多安得以规避宪法限制，再次竞选总统。
Turkey's next presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2028 but a presidential adviser said this month that the elections would probably be held slightly earlier than expected. Doing so would allow Erdogan to sidestep constitutional limits and run again for office.