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Genmab抗癌药物数据亮眼,股价本周大涨市值增百亿美元Genmab’s Stellar Cancer-Drug Data Fuels Stock’s $10 Billion Week

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哥本哈根,Genmab A/S的办公室。摄影师:Thomas Traasdahl/Sipa/AP PhotoGenmab A/S offices in Copenhagen. Photographer: Thomas Traasdahl/Sipa/AP Photo

对丹麦生物技术公司Genmab A/S来说,这是突破性的一周。

It’s been a breakout week for Danish biotech Genmab A/S.

两款潜在抗癌药物积极的后期试验进展推动其股价飙升至历史新高,市值增加逾100亿美元,并促使分析师纷纷匆忙上调目标价。

Positive late-stage trial updates on two potential cancer drugs have sent the shares soaring to record levels, adding the equivalent of more than $10 billion in market value and leaving analysts scrambling to boost their price targets.

该股周涨幅达44%,为2008年以来最大,并将今年迄今的涨幅扩大至近90%。

The 44% weekly advance is the steepest since 2008 and extends the stock’s year-to-date gain to almost 90%.

Genmab于1999年在哥本哈根创立,次年在那里上市。对该公司而言,试验结果增强了信心,即公司在其重磅血癌药物之外找到了新的增长引擎。投资者进入本季度时在等待三项重大临床进展,如今这三项均已交出积极结果。

For Genmab, founded in Copenhagen in 1999 and listed there the following year, the trial results boosted confidence that the firm has found new engines for growth beyond its blockbuster blood cancer drug. Investors entered the quarter waiting for three major clinical updates and all have now delivered positive outcomes.

杰富瑞分析师本杰明·杰克逊表示:“生物技术公司往往有这样一种魔咒:如果你开发出一款真正的好药并从中赚了很多钱,找到下一个创新可能会很困难。Genmab属于少数几个可以开始说‘这已经发生了’的案例之一。”Genmab的成功凸显了丹麦作为欧洲制药强国的角色,生命科学约占该国商品出口的五分之一。诺和诺德的重磅减肥药推动了该行业近期的大部分增长,但该公司在追赶礼来方面的挣扎,如今已将部分投资者的关注转移到规模较小的丹麦同行身上。

“Biotechs tend to have this curse that if you develop one really good drug and you make a lot of money from it, finding the next innovation can be challenging,” said Jefferies analyst Benjamin Jackson. “Genmab is one of those few cases where you can start to say: this has happened.”Genmab’s success underscores Denmark’s role as a European pharmaceutical powerhouse, with life sciences accounting for roughly a fifth of the country’s goods exports. Novo Nordisk A/S’s blockbuster obesity drugs have driven much of the sector’s recent growth, but its struggle to keep pace with Eli Lilly & Co. has now shifted some of the investor spotlight to its smaller Danish peer.

Genmab辉煌的一周始于上周五欧洲市场收盘后,当时该公司表示,名为Rina-S的实验性疗法在一组患有某种卵巢癌的患者中,将疾病进展或死亡的风险降低了71%。仅仅几天后,该公司表示,试验结果显示,正在测试用于头颈癌的药物petosemtamab将死亡几率降低了50%。

A stellar week for Genmab began after European markets closed on Friday when the company said the experimental treatment known as Rina-S cut the risk of disease progression or death by 71% in a group of patients with a form of ovarian cancer. Just days later, the company said trial results showed petosemtamab, a drug in testing for head and neck cancer, lowered the chance of death by 50%.

随着Genmab旗下血癌药物Darzalex的特许权使用费预计将在本十年末逐步下降,该公司需要寻找新的增长来源。而由于它拥有petosemtamab的商业权利,相比通过特许权使用费获利,它有望获得更多潜在上行空间。

With royalties from Genmab’s blood cancer drug Darzalex expected to decline toward the end of the decade, the firm needs to find new sources of growth. And as it owns commercial rights to petosemtamab, it stands to reap more of the potential upside than it would through royalties.

“你拥有三项资产,它们不仅仅是收取特许权使用费的资产,实际上是商业资产,他们将自行推动其上市和推进,”杰克逊说。

“You have had three assets that aren’t just royalty bearing, which are actually commercial assets that they will aim to launch and progress themselves,” Jackson said.

分析师们迅速反映了潜在的未来收益。Van Lanschot Kempen本周将其目标价上调至4900丹麦克朗,在彭博追踪的分析师中为最高。这意味着较当前水平还有近30%的上行空间。

Analysts have been quick to reflect potential future gains. Van Lanschot Kempen this week raised its price target to 4,900 Danish kroner, the highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg. That implies almost 30% of additional upside from current levels.

“Petosemtamab现在稳稳地走在成为数十亿美元级 franchise 的轨道上,”Kempen由罗米·奥康纳领导的团队表示,并补充说该疗法有望成为下一个标准治疗方案。

“Petosemtamab is now firmly on track to become a multi-billion franchise,” said Kempen’s team led by Romy O’Connor, adding that the treatment is on track to become the next standard of care.

摩根大通分析师认为,petosemtamab的峰值销售潜力约为50亿美元,其中35亿美元来自头颈癌,其余来自结直肠癌,根据10月27日的一份报告。

JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts see peak sales potential of about $5 billion for petosemtamab, with $3.5 billion of that coming from head and neck cancer and the rest from the colorectal form of the disease, according to an Oct. 27 note.

尽管如此,这轮上涨的速度让一些分析师趋于谨慎。Jyske Bank和AL Sydbank周四均下调了该股评级,Sydbank分析师瑟伦·伦托夫特·汉森表示,随着投资者等待新药能否在商业上兑现的证据,该股即将进入一段较为平静的时期。

Still, the speed of the rally is making some analysts cautious. Both Jyske Bank and AL Sydbank downgraded the stock on Thursday, with Sydbank analyst Søren Løntoft Hansen saying the shares are about to enter a quieter period as investors wait for proof that the new drugs can deliver commercially.

在近期上涨后将评级下调至卖出,Jyske Bank的亨里克·哈伦格林·劳斯滕表示,他预计未来的消息流将更为稀少,尽管他承认近期的试验结果“显著降低了管线风险,并强化了Darzalex之后的增长前景”。

Cutting the stock to sell after the recent gains, Jyske Bank’s Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen said he sees thinner news flow ahead, although he acknowledged that the recent trial results “significantly reduce the risk in the pipeline and strengthen the growth profile after Darzalex.”

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