The prognosis was brutal nearly two years ago when Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told colleagues and staff that she wanted to run the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. Reeling from losing their majority in their colossal 2024 losses, even the most optimistic Democrat couldn’t articulate a path back to power in just one cycle.

Now, the junior New York senator and party leaders who have been castigated by their own base for the past two years are unexpectedly tasting the prospect of victory next week.

If Gillibrand and the much-criticized party establishment win a majority in the U.S. Senate that few thought possible so soon, it would leave her and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, in a politically formidable position.

Gillibrand would even like to run the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for another term, multiple sources familiar with the conversations told The Washington Sun.

Arguing for it, her allies laud her strategic prowess (including candidate recruitment vilified by progressives) and fundraising skills, saying Gillibrand very early on saw the potential for this cycle to parallel the 2006 midterms, an election when Schumer led the DSCC and Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress.

“If she does what I think she’s going to do Tuesday, she’s going to overachieve on a scale we’ve never seen,” one longtime Democratic donor told The Sun. “I think it could outpace 2006, candidly.”It’s a remarkable spot for the moderate-turned-liberal Democrat who has long had perhaps more than her share of detractors, from those alienated by her role in pushing former Sen. Al Franken to resign in 2017 to more recent critics of her relationship with the cryptocurrency industry.

Even her current tenure at the top of the Senate campaign operation has drawn ire from progressives angered by the leaders’ effort to defeat more liberal primary candidates.

Under Gillibrand, the DSCC has raised more than $200 million this election cycle, a haul that committee officials say exceeds its Republican counterpart’s fundraising after excluding loans and transfers from national party committees. Earlier this month Gillibrand and the DSCC borrowed $15 million from Amalgamated Bank, according to Federal Election Commission filings, pulling from a revolving line of credit that was increased from $20 million to $25 million this summer.

The fundraising success comes as Democrats have faced broader financial disadvantages beyond the party committees. GOP-aligned outside groups have spent nearly twice as much as the Democrats this cycle. And with limits on coordinated spending between parties and campaigns lifted, the DSCC has faced greater pressure to raise money.

Gillibrand’s allies credit the recruitment of candidates like Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, Alaska’s Mary Peltola and North Carolina’s Roy Cooper for giving the party a path to a majority. Those three candidates, they argue, are uniquely positioned to flip red seats that Democrats critically need. Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ show all three of those Democrats leading the Republican in the race less than a week before election day.

And though the DSCC denies it helped recruit a second Dan Sullivan to the Alaska contest to sow confusion, it would be the kind of move insiders hail, as long as the recent unmasking by The New York Times doesn’t make it backfire.

Allies could also point to the competitive primaries in Michigan and Maine, where progressives defeated more moderate candidates who were supported by party leaders. Both are now toss-up contests.

Still, Democratic leaders’ handling of those contested Senate primaries exposed fundamental divisions over the party’s strategy for winning a majority and continues to draw criticism.

Adam Green, the co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, a national political group associated with the economic populist wing of the party, argued Gillibrand and Schumer were roadblocks to the push to win back the Senate.

“If Democrats win back control of the Senate it will be in spite of the instincts of Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand,” Green said. “Leaving the garage with your parking brake on — that is Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand.”That tension remains on display in Michigan, where Schumer and other prominent Democrats endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens over progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed and where, just this week, Stevens’ fiancé endorsed the Republican in the race, Mike Rogers.

The DSCC and Gillibrand, however, stayed neutral and have worked to repair the rift. The day after El-Sayed’s primary win, Gillibrand called him to offer her and the DSCC’s full support, according to a source familiar with that conversation. She also urged Democratic colleagues to push money to El-Sayed’s campaign down the home stretch of the Michigan campaign. Schumer and a major super PAC aligned with the Democratic leader also started supporting El-Sayed the day after his win.

The longtime Democratic donor insists the DSCC brass didn’t try to sway the race in Michigan.

“They weren’t asking reliable donors to weigh in on the primary,” the donor said. “I’ve seen other races where they’ve tried to push money. I’m one of the first phone calls they would make. I never got that call.”The griping isn’t confined to progressive strategists. Some Democratic senators have publicly and privately questioned the DSCC’s involvement in divisive primaries.

That included its support of former Maine Gov. Janet Mills, who was recruited by Schumer but ended her campaign in the face of a surge by Graham Platner, the left’s darling who later dropped out amid allegations of sexual assault. The committee spent considerable resources supporting Mills and helped her raise money.

Supporters of Democratic leadership counter the critics by pointing to the more moderate candidates recruited by leadership who are out-performing progressives in polls in key races.

“To suggest Democratic leadership has been ineffective when we’re on the verge of taking back a Senate majority that almost nobody thought was within reach a year ago is the height of absurdity,” said a senior Democrat with knowledge of the races.

“Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has been instrumental in our efforts to expand the Senate map, run strong campaigns, and ensure Democrats and the DSCC have the resources needed to compete and win,” a spokesperson for the DSCC said in a statement. “The battle for a Senate majority is now a toss-up and Democrats have never been better positioned than they are today, thanks in large part to the work of Chair Gillibrand.”

Even critics admit a strong result next week would bolster Gillibrand’s case to run the DSCC again. The demands of the job are such that many senators don’t find it desirable, and the gig is primarily a fundraising job, with a significant travel schedule and time spent dealing with donors, campaigns and candidates.

“She sucks but I don’t think there’s anyone else willing,” one senior Democratic aide said. “And if we take back the Senate, she and Schumer will take credit.”Gillibrand also has a unique trait that comes into play running the DSCC — she’s extremely familiar with Schumer, who maintains a strong interest in its operations. The focus on campaigns remains central to Schumer’s political identity, and the Democratic leader takes the lion’s share of credit (and blame) for his caucus’ electoral success.

Sources around both lawmakers said Gillibrand has learned to manage that dynamic with Schumer over years of working together representing New York. The sources said the junior New York Democrat doesn’t step on Schumer’s toes in her DSCC job and knows what is likely to get under his skin. The arrangement also works, the sources argued, because Gillibrand isn’t ego-driven in the role.

Allison Biasotti, a spokesperson for Schumer, praised Gillibrand’s partnership with the Democratic leader.

“As we’ve expanded the map, raised record amounts of money, and put Democrats within striking distance of taking back the Senate — something few thought possible a year ago — Senator Gillibrand has been an outstanding partner to Leader Schumer,” Biasotti said in a statement.

While some senators see the campaign chief job as thankless, some, including Schumer himself, have used it as a launch pad. As Gillibrand seeks another term leading the DSCC, a victory next week, especially one of historic proportions, strengthens her case.

The longtime Democratic donor said if Senate Democrats win next week, the question won’t be whether Gillibrand is asked to run the committee again, but “whether she will accept the offer from her caucus.”