CNN 首席数据分析师哈里·恩滕（Harry Enten）今年秋天意外成为唐纳德·特朗普总统集会上的明星。
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten has become an unexpected star at President Donald Trump’s rallies this fall.
在一个又一个州，特朗普播放了一段恩滕在 CNN 出镜的混剪视频，重点展示恩滕提到总统在自称“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）共和党人中拥有持久人气的时刻。
In state after state, Trump has shown a montage of Enten’s appearances on CNN, highlighting moments when Enten has highlighted the president’s enduring popularity among self-professed MAGA Republicans.
本月的中期选举冲刺阶段，这段 CNN 视频混剪已在集会上播放至少 16 次。特朗普常站在巨幅屏幕前观看混剪，现场观众为恩滕的发言欢呼。混剪播放结束后，特朗普有时会说“哇”或“谢谢，CNN”。
The CNN video clips have been played at rallies at least 16 times during this month’s midterm blitz. Trump often stands and watches the clips on a giant screen while rallygoers cheer Enten’s remarks. Sometimes Trump says “wow” or “thank you, CNN” after the montage is played.
但这些片段脱离了背景，极易让观众对特朗普真实的政治地位产生误解。因此我就该混剪及其与即将到来的中期选举的关联采访了恩滕。我们的对话经轻微编辑以控制篇幅并保证清晰度。
But the clips are devoid of any context and can easily leave viewers with a misimpression of Trump’s real political standing. So I asked Enten about the montage and its relevance to the impending midterm election. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
斯泰勒：你是数据专家，所以我们从数字说起：今年你大概做了多少个关于中期选举的电视节目片段和视频？
Stelter: You’re the data guy, so let’s start with some numbers: Roughly how many TV segments and videos have you made about the midterms this year?
恩滕：噢……让我想想……2026 年至今已有 300 多天……我几乎天天上电视，周末也不例外。我休息过一段时间……但我觉得 300 个片段是个保守的起步估算。可能更多！也许多得多，但咱们按保守的算。
Enten: Oh my… well, let’s think about this… There have been over 300 days in 2026 so far… I am on TV pretty much every day, including weekends. I’ve taken off some time… but I think 300 segments is a fair starting point. It may be more! Maybe much more, but let’s play it conservatively.
斯泰勒：显然总统看过其中一些片段。去年他点过你的名，但把名字念错了。今年他念对了。他喜欢说“甚至 CNN”都在报道对他有利的消息，然后就会提到你。这对你来说是不是很超现实？
Stelter:Clearly the president has been watching some of those segments. Last year, he name-checked you but butchered your name. This year, he’s been pronouncing it correctly. He likes to say “even CNN” is reporting something flattering about him, and then he’ll invoke you. Is that surreal for you?
恩滕：嗯，如果十年前有人告诉我我会 a) 上 CNN，而且 b) 美国总统会在集会上播放我的片段……我觉得我绝不会信。我会把概率定在百万分之一……那可能还是高估了。斯泰勒：说回那些片段：他为什么一直播放它们？
Enten: Well, if you had told me a decade ago that I would a) be on CNN, and b) the president of the United States would be playing clips of mine at his rallies… I don’t think I would have bought it for a minute. I’d put the chance at 1 in a million… and that may have been high. Stelter: So about those clips: Why does he keep playing them?
恩滕：因为他相信这能显示自己受欢迎。特朗普这个品牌的核心就是赢，而在他看来，那些片段显示的就是他在赢。斯特尔特：那些片段里你都说了什么？
Enten: Because he believes it shows him to be popular. The Trump brand is all about winning, and those clips, in his mind, show him winning. Stelter: What are you saying in the clips?
恩滕：嗯，我相信他播放的有两段……也许是三段。说实话，我空闲时间都在看《绽放》这部剧。但其中一段，我认为是关于他在MAGA群体中的支持率基本上与他2024年从他们那里获得的支持相当。另一段是关于共和党众议院候选人的支持率基本上与特朗普2024年的支持率相当。第三段是关于在共和党内，他是迄今为止最受敬仰的总统。他胜过了里根和林肯。
Enten: Well, I believe there are two clips he plays… Maybe three. Gotta be honest, I spend my free time watching episodes of “Blossom.”But one, I think, is a clip about how approval with MAGA is basically matching his support he received from them in 2024. Another is support for GOP House candidates is basically matching Trump’s support from 2024. The third is how, among the GOP, he is by far the most admired president. He beats out Reagan and Lincoln.
斯特尔特：当然，你在那些片段里说的一切在当时都是真的。但其中一些信息到现在是不是已经过时了？
Stelter: Everything you said in those clips was true at the time, of course. But is some of the info outdated at this point?
恩滕：我还没看到另一份“最受敬仰”的民调，但我敢打赌特朗普仍然轻松领先。
Enten: I haven’t seen another “most admired” poll, but I bet Trump still leads that handily.
他在MAGA共和党人中的支持率比之前略低，但MAGA共和党人对国会共和党候选人的支持率与之前相同，甚至略高一些。这是根据福克斯新闻的民调。当然，MAGA共和党人只是选民中的一部分。
He’s slightly lower with the MAGA GOP than he was, but the MAGA GOP support for congressional GOP candidates is the same, if not a little higher. That is per Fox News polling. Of course, MAGA GOP is just a portion of the electorate.
斯特尔特：这才是关键，对吧？特朗普一直在把“MAGA共和党人”与所有共和党人混为一谈。有多大比例的共和党人不认同自己是MAGA？
Stelter: That’s really the key, right? Trump keeps conflating “MAGA Republicans” with all Republicans. What proportion of Republicans don’t ID as MAGA?
恩滕：这取决于民调。但我认为可以肯定地说，有相当一部分少数不认同自己是MAGA。在一些民调中，特朗普在非MAGA共和党人中的支持率实际上是负的。
Enten: It depends on the poll. But I think it’s safe to say a sizable minority do not identify as MAGA. Among non-MAGA GOP, Trump is actually underwater in some polls.
斯特尔特：“MAGA共和党人”这个类别到底有用吗？这不就等同于衡量特朗普的支持率吗？恩滕：想知道我为什么开始提取这个指标的故事吗？斯特尔特：想！
Stelter: Is “MAGA Republican” even a useful category? Isn’t it just like measuring Trump’s approval rating? Enten: Want to know the story about why I started pulling the metric? Stelter: Yes!
恩滕：所以原因，据我回忆，是在伊朗战争初期，到处都在说MAGA因为这场战争而内斗。这让我开始思考，“这到底是不是真的？”其实并没有。
Enten: So the reason, as I recall, was that in the early days of the Iran War, there was all this talk about how MAGA was infighting because of the war. This got me thinking, “Is this actually true?”There really wasn’t.
“MAGA”是一个自我界定的类别，对吧？但选择认同这一标签的人爱特朗普。我认为，这有助于我们理解MAGA本质上等于特朗普。如果这一点有朝一日发生变化，那会很有意思。
MAGA is a self-defined category, right? But the people who were opting in loved Trump. I think it’s useful insofar as helping us understand MAGA essentially equals Trump. If that ever changes, it would be interesting.
斯特尔特：同意。现在你每天都在电视上做中期选举前瞻，谈论许多其他指标。特朗普出于显而易见的原因不推广那些片段：你在展示他的政党在选举层面有大麻烦。这和“MAGA共和党”与“非MAGA共和党”有很大关系吗？恩滕：共和党陷入大麻烦有两个原因。
Stelter: Agreed. Now you’re on TV every day previewing the midterms, talking about many other metrics. Trump doesn’t promote those segments for obvious reasons: You’re showing that his party is in big trouble, electorally speaking. Does that have a lot to do with MAGA GOP versus non-MAGA GOP? Enten: There are two reasons the GOP is in major trouble.
第一个是你指出的非MAGA共和党。例如，詹姆斯·塔拉里科在得克萨斯州获得了相当大一部分这部分选票。
The first is what you pointed out about non-MAGA GOP. James Talarico, for example, is getting a substantial portion of that vote in Texas.
第二个是独立选民。在进入中期选举之际，特朗普在独立选民中的不受欢迎程度是有记录以来历任总统中最高的。他甚至比尼克松在1974年8月被迫下台前更不受欢迎。
The second is independents. Trump’s the least popular president going into a midterm on record with independents. He’s even less popular than Nixon was before he was forced out in August of 1974.
国会民主党人正与独立选民一道推进。他们可能会在与独立选民的较量中取得出口民调时代——即近50年国会出口民调——任何一场选举中的最佳差距。
Democrats for Congress are rolling with independents. They may put up their best margin with them in any election in the exit poll era — i.e., nearly 50 years of congressional exit polls.
斯特尔特：我们都清楚特朗普为什么不在集会上播放你说他基本盘支持率的片段。但你认为他断章取义地挑选你关于他基本盘支持率的某些观点，是否会误导集会参与者？
Stelter: We both know why Trump isn’t airing clips of you saying at his rallies. But do you think he’s misleading rallygoers by cherry-picking some of your points about his base support?
恩滕：我要说的是：我认为你可以看我的片段，短的长的都行。MAGA共和党只是其中一小部分。它们有助于讲述一个故事，但那不是全部故事。
Enten: Here’s what I’ll say: I think you can watch my segments, short and long. The MAGA GOP is just a small part of them. They help tell a story, but it’s not the full story.