华盛顿，10月30日 —— 里士满联储主席汤姆·巴尔金周五表示，鉴于高通胀和经济稳健，美国货币政策的路径“相当明确”，但未来加息的步伐仍是一个悬而未决的问题。
WASHINGTON, Oct 30 - Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said on Friday that with high inflation and the economy solid, the path of US monetary policy was "straightforward," but with an open question about the pace of any future rate increases.
“通胀高企，需求稳健，失业率相对较低。所以我认为政策方向相当明确，”巴尔金在SiriusXM的“商业简报”节目中被问及美联储是否还需要再次加息时表示。“不过，问题在于步伐……我们发出了逐步推进的信号。当你没有严重落后于曲线、希望有时间观察学习时，逐步推进是合理的。”然而，巴尔金此时表示，他所在的大西洋中部和东南部辖区内的企业反映，既面临成本压力上升，又有意愿将这些成本转嫁出去，蓬勃的人工智能投资正在推动需求和一系列价格上涨。
"Inflation's high, demand is solid, unemployment is relatively low. So I think the direction of travel is pretty straightforward," Barkin said on SiriusXM's Business Briefing when asked if the Fed would need to raise rates again. "The question, though, is pace ... We signaled a gradual approach. Gradual makes sense when you're not much behind the curve, where you want time to learn." At this point, however, Barkin said that businesses in his mid-Atlantic and southeastern district report both rising cost pressures and a willingness to pass those costs along, with booming investment in artificial intelligence boosting demand and an array of prices.
“美国企业面临大量成本压力，”从柴油到计算机芯片，再到熟练劳动力的工资，巴尔金说。“在经历了四五年高位通胀的背景下，我认为企业更容易找到理由……我们将不得不”提价。
"There are a lot of cost pressures that are hitting American businesses," from diesel fuel to computer chips or the wages for skilled labor, Barkin said. "In the context of four or five years of elevated inflation I think it is just easier to make the argument... We are going to have to" raise prices.
“这种通胀的亲身经历确实会影响未来的通胀，除非美联储采取行动。”下一步行动可能最早出现在美联储12月8日至9日的会议上，投资者预期决策者将批准再加息25个基点。
"That lived experience of inflation does affect future inflation, unless of course the Fed does something about it." The next step could come as soon as the Fed's December 8-9 meeting when investors expect policymakers to approve another quarter-point rate hike.
美联储在本周会议上维持利率不变，但在新的政策声明中表示，“更多信息的积累”将有助于决定政策路径。许多分析师将这一新措辞解读为预示将加息的信号，除非通胀出现意外下降——而通胀的顽固性比许多决策者预期的更强。本周公布的数据显示，近期经济增长和通胀均强于预期。
The Fed held rates steady at its meeting this week, but in a new policy statement said "the accumulation of more information" would help decide the path of policy. The new language was taken by many analysts as a signal of rate hikes to come, absent some unexpected drop in inflation that is proving more persistent than many policymakers had expected. Data this week showed recent economic growth and recent inflation both stronger than anticipated.
巴尔金今年不是利率政策的投票委员，但明年将成为投票委员，届时美联储预计将继续加息。不过，投资者对加息幅度的看法已发生转变，与此同时股市近期下跌可能会影响未来的消费者支出并缓解成本压力。
Barkin is not a voter this year on interest rate policy, but will become a voter next year when the Fed is expected to continue raising borrowing costs. Investor views of the extent of hiking have shifted however, alongside a recent drop in equity markets that could influence future consumer spending and ease cost pressures.