分析公司 Quilty Space 的一份新报告证实，除中国外，世界在未来五年内面临火箭严重短缺。
A new report from the analytics firm Quilty Space confirms that, outside of China, the world faces a significant shortage of rockets over the next five years.
该公司估计，从现在到 2030 年，与卫星运营商和民用航天机构的需求相比，将短缺约 150 次发射。如果加上美国军方的需求——且 SpaceX 不延长“猎鹰 9 号”和“猎鹰重型”火箭项目以满足增加的国家安全需求——短缺可能会翻倍。
The firm estimates that between now and 2030, there will be a shortfall of about 150 launches compared to demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies. If demand from the US military is added in—and SpaceX does not extend the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy program to accommodate increased national security needs—the shortage could be doubled.
Quilty Space 研究总监 Caleb Henry 表示：“我们想弄清楚这次发射危机有多严重，以及何时能得到解决。我们了解到，发射危机比我们想象的更严重，本十年内肯定不会消失，甚至可能要到 2030 年代末才会缓解。”
"What we wanted to get at is to understand how severe this launch crisis is and when will it be resolved," said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space. "What we learned is that the launch crisis is more severe than we thought and that it will not go away this decade for sure, and it might not abate until sometime late in the 2030s."