纽约州预测，明年预算赤字将收窄35亿美元，因为该州预计交易和借贷的繁荣将给华尔街带来创纪录的利润，并带来更强劲的奖金支付以提振税收。
New York projected the budget deficit will narrow by $3.5 billion next year as the state expects a boom in trading and borrowing to deliver record profits to Wall Street and stronger bonus payments to boost revenue.
根据周五发布的州中期财政计划更新，纽约州预计明年预算缺口将从64亿美元降至29亿美元。该州预计本财年（截至3月31日）将实现90亿美元盈余。
The Empire State sees the budget gap falling to $2.9 billion from $6.4 billion next year, according to the state’s Mid-Year Financial Plan Update released Friday. The state is projecting a $9 billion surplus for the current fiscal year, ending March 31.
更新报告称：“稳定的就业增长、不断上涨的工资和强劲的金融市场表现提振了消费者支出和企业盈利。对纽约来说，这种经济势头已转化为强于预期的税收收入。”州主计长托马斯·迪纳波利本月早些时候表示，华尔街今年上半年的利润约为460亿美元，远超预期，并有望实现超过900亿美元创纪录的收益。预计本财年州工资将增长4.8%，超过全国4%的增长率。
“Steady job growth, rising wages, and strong financial market performance have boosted consumer spending and corporate earnings,” according to the update. “For New York, this economic momentum has translated into stronger-than-expected tax collections.”Wall Street’s roughly $46 billion profits during the first half of the year have significantly exceeded forecasts and put it on track for a record haul of more than $90 billion, state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said earlier this month. State wages are projected to grow 4.8% in the current fiscal year, outpacing the national rate of 4%.
尽管前景乐观，但该州仍面临潜在的经济逆风，如利率上升和股市波动，以及医疗补助和安全网计划成本的上升。根据预算司的数据，如果发生类似于9·11事件后经济放缓以及2008年大衰退的经济衰退，税收收入可能在三年内减少350亿至500亿美元。
Despite the positive outlook, the state faces potential economic headwinds such as rising interest rates and stock market volatility as well as rising costs for Medicaid and safety net programs. Tax collections could fall between $35 billion and $50 billion over three years in a recession comparable to the slowdown after September 11 and the Great Recession of 2008, according to the Division of Budget.
监督机构公民预算委员会主席安德鲁·雷恩表示：“额外现金向来容易让奥尔巴尼的腰包烧出个洞，促使州政府扩大负担不起的项目，给未来自找苦吃。奥尔巴尼应该明智地利用这一机会——巩固保护性的预算稳定，并支持最有需要的纽约人。”州政府将利用今年的意外之财来增加储备并预付债务。根据这份更新，纽约州将补充70亿美元的雨天基金，此前该州动用了这些资金来偿还联邦政府的失业保险贷款。该州预计将拥有200亿美元储备，约占本财年州支出的12%，明年将增至220亿美元。
“Extra cash has a habit of burning a hole in Albany’s pocket, encouraging the State to expand programs unaffordable and self-inflicting future pain,” said Andrew Rein, president of the Citizens Budget Commission, a watchdog group. “Albany should use this opportunity wisely — to buttress protective budget stability and support those New Yorkers most in need.”The state will use this year’s windfall to boost reserves and prepay debt. New York will replenish its rainy-day funds by $7 billion after the state drew on them to pay pay off a federal government loan for unemployment insurance, according to the update. The state expects to have $20 billion in reserves, or about 12% of state spending in the current fiscal year, rising to $22 billion next year.