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阿尔巴尼斯欲在国际舞台寻求破局,国内“火情不断”且加息或将临近Albanese looks for reset on world stage as ‘spot fires burn’ domestically and likely interest rate hike looms

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安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯正在出席英联邦政府首脑会议,周二澳大利亚储备银行公布利率决定时他将不在国内。摄影:卢卡斯·科赫/澳大利亚联合通讯社Anthony Albanese is attending Chogm and will be away when the RBA delivers its interest rate decision on Tuesday. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

随着“峰会季”拉开帷幕,分析人士表示,在世界舞台上重申与各国领导人的关系,可能成为安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯在面临国内和经济困境时的一个“破局点”。

As “summit season” begins, reaffirming ties with fellow leaders on the world stage could be a circuit breaker for Anthony Albanese amid domestic and economic woes, analysts have said.

但总理出访期间,因通胀高于预期而可能触发的加息,将使他的工作——以及财长的工作——变得更加棘手。

But a likely interest rate hike triggered by higher-than-expected inflation while the prime minister is overseas will make his job – and the treasurer’s – even harder.

阿尔巴尼斯将于周六起出席在安提瓜和巴布达举行的英联邦政府首脑会议(Chogm)。

Albanese is attending the Commonwealth heads of government meeting (Chogm) in Antigua and Barbuda from Saturday.

他将在该两年一度的会议上与英国国王查尔斯三世以及包括英国和加拿大首相安迪·伯纳姆和马克·卡尼在内的盟友举行会谈。

He will hold talks with King Charles III and allies including the UK and Canadian prime ministers, Andy Burnham and Mark Carney, at the biennial meeting.

莫纳什大学政治学副教授扎雷·加扎里安博士表示,在经历了拨款资金争议和通胀压力后,这些讨论将构成一次急需的“重启”。“这是一个对他具有战略重要性的时刻,”加扎里安说。

The discussions will constitute a well-needed reset after controversies over grant funding and pressures on inflation, according to Dr Zareh Ghazarian, an associate professor of politics at Monash University. “It is a strategically important time for him,” Ghazarian said.

“他在国内有很多‘小火苗’在燃烧,但这将是一个机会,让他展现出更加主动积极的姿态。

“He’s got a lot of spot fires burning domestically but this is going to be an opportunity for him to present himself to be much more on the front foot.

“压力很大,所以这次行程可能只是一个重启政治辩论的时刻……这是一个关键时刻,让他展现自己作为世界领导人在众多世界领导人中的形象。”

“There’s a lot of pressure, so this trip could just be a moment to reset the political debate for people … this is a critical moment to present himself as a world leader amongst other world leaders.”

当储备银行于周二宣布下一次利率决定时,阿尔巴尼斯将不在国内,市场预测利率将升至4.85%。

Albanese will be away when the Reserve Bank hands down its next interest rate decision on Tuesday, with markets tipping a rise to 4.85%.

这将是2026年的第五次加息,在生活成本压力持续的背景下,这对政府来说是一个棘手的局面。

It would be the fifth interest rate hike in 2026 and a challenging situation for the government to navigate, amid continuing cost-of-living pressures.

阿尔巴尼斯在周六上午出发前强调了出席英联邦政府首脑会议的价值。在排满的国际日程中,英联邦有时被视为无关紧要,是过去帝国时代的过时遗物。“英联邦政府首脑会议是一个重要论坛,”阿尔巴尼斯说。

Albanese emphasised the value of attending Chogm before his departure on Saturday morning. In a crowded international calendar, the Commonwealth is occasionally dismissed as irrelevant, an anachronistic relic of a former imperial era. “The Commonwealth heads of government meeting is an important forum,” Albanese said.

“[这]提供了一个机会,让我们与一些最亲密的伙伴在共同面临的挑战上开展合作,包括气候变化、海洋保护、贸易和投资以及人工智能的崛起。”历史奴隶制问题及其持续的遗留影响,很可能将成为此次英联邦政府首脑会议(Chogm)的一个主要争议点。

“[It provides] an opportunity to work with some of our closest partners on shared challenges, including climate change, the preservation of our oceans, trade and investment and the rise of AI.”The issue of historical slavery, and its ongoing legacy, is likely to be a key point of contention at Chogm.

伯纳姆在《卫报》撰文表示,进行“艰难对话以为英联邦的未来提供保障”是正确的做法。

Burnham, writing in the Guardian, said having “difficult conversations to safeguard the Commonwealth for the future” was the right thing to do.

“不仅因为这符合我们的利益,更因为我所信仰的英国是自信、体面且勇敢的。我们曾引领世界废除奴隶制——而今天我们能再次展现领导力。”他称跨大西洋奴隶贸易是对“被视为财产、被累死累活”的人民的“残酷而野蛮的侵犯”。

“Not just because it is in our interests, but because the Britain I believe in is confident, decent and brave. We led the world in abolishing slavery – and we can show leadership again today.”He called the transatlantic slave trade a “brutal and barbaric violation” of people “treated as property and worked to their deaths”.

他写道:“我想为数百万人的痛苦和苦难表达我的悲伤和遗憾,并承认这种历史至今仍在塑造我们的世界。”

“I want to express my sorrow and regret for the pain and suffering of so many millions of people, and to recognise the way it still shapes our world today,” he wrote.

加勒比国家重申呼吁英国为其贩卖奴隶牟利的角色道歉,并要求赔偿,此举正值国王访问加勒比地区之际。

Caribbean nations have made renewed calls for Britain to apologise for its role in selling enslaved people for profit, and for reparations, as the King toured the Caribbean.

伯纳姆表示:“倾听要求英国国家正式道歉的呼声将构成这一进程的重要组成部分,我对此持开放态度。”但他表示,不认为针对奴隶制的赔偿是“正确的答案”。澳大利亚不会在任何关于奴隶制和奴隶贸易的辩论中充当旁观者。

Burnham said: “Listening to calls for a formal apology on behalf of the British state will form an important part of this process and I am open to them.”But he said he did not believe reparations for slavery was the “right answer”. Australia would not be a bystander to any debate about slavery and the slave trade.

19世纪和20世纪初,澳大利亚农业严重依赖“黑鸟贩运”:通过胁迫、欺骗、贿赂和绑架手段,将6万多名太平洋岛民带到澳大利亚作为契约劳工,主要在昆士兰州的甘蔗和棉花种植园劳作。

Across the 19th and early 20th centuries, Australian agriculture relied heavily on “blackbirding”: the use of coercion, trickery, bribery and kidnapping to bring more than 60,000 Pacific Islanders to work as indentured labourers in Australia, primarily on Queensland’s sugar and cotton plantations.

英联邦政府首脑会议将拉开阿尔巴尼斯年底繁忙海外行程的序幕,未来几周他将出席在土耳其、菲律宾、中国和美国举行的国际峰会。

The Chogm meeting will kick off a busy end to the year overseas for Albanese, with international summits in Turkey, the Philippines, China and the US in coming weeks.

澳大利亚外交部长黄英贤目前正在美国佐治亚州亚特兰大出席二十国集团外长会议。由于俄罗斯的出席,该会议开幕蒙上阴影,约三分之一的与会国誓言,如果俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫参与,将抵制惯例的“大合影”。

The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, is currently in Atlanta, Georgia for the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting. The start of that conference has been overshadowed by the presence of Russia, with about one-third of the countries attending vowing to boycott the customary “family photo” if the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, was involved.

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