美国即将迎来“就业周”，这意味着在劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）周五发布每月就业报告这一重头戏之前，将有一大批数据陆续出炉。
Jobs week lies ahead for the US, which means a heavy slate of data ahead of the capstone monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
Matthew Boesler 和 Craig Stirling 撰文报道，预测人士预计该报告将显示，10 月份月度就业岗位增长将增至 6.5 万个，增幅超过一倍，而失业率将维持在 4.2% 不变。这将使美联储在未来几个月继续加息以对抗通胀的轨道保持不变。
By Matthew Boesler and Craig Stirling Forecasters expect the report to show monthly job growth more than doubled in October, to 65,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. That would leave the Federal Reserve on track for additional interest-rate increases in the months ahead to combat inflation.
本周即将公布的其他劳动力市场数据可能强化“稳定”这一主题。周二将发布的月度职位空缺报告预计将显示，9 月份职位空缺数量小幅上升，经济学家也将仔细审视裁员和离职数据。周四公布的每周初请失业金人数数据预计将维持在数十年来的最低水平附近。
Other labor-market data in the coming week could reinforce the stability theme. A monthly report on job openings due on Tuesday is expected to show listings ticked higher in September, and economists will also scrutinize numbers on layoffs and quitting. Weekly jobless claims figures out Thursday, meanwhile, are seen remaining near the lowest levels in decades.
彭博经济学观点：“在稳定的失业率表象之下，失业人数正缓慢上升，但初请失业金人数尚未显示出大规模裁员正在形成。深层故事是：一个低招聘、低裁员的劳动力市场正在失去动力，但尚未崩溃。”——Anna Wong、Andrew Sacher 和 Eliza Winger 撰写。点击此处查看完整分析。
美国经济日历的其余部分包括：周一的制造业数据，预计将显示 10 月份工厂活动再次强劲；周三的贸易数据，可能证实与人工智能相关的进口继续推动贸易逆差在上个月扩大。
What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Underneath the steady unemployment rate, job losses are slowly climbing, but jobless claims don’t yet show mass layoffs building. The underlying story is that a low-hire, low-fire labor market is losing momentum, but not breaking.”—Anna Wong, Andrew Sacher and Eliza Winger. For full analysis, click here Rounding out the US calendar are manufacturing figures on Monday, which are expected to show factory activity was robust again in October, and trade data on Wednesday which will probably confirm AI-related imports continued to push the trade deficit wider last month.
此外，周四将发布一份生产率报告，预测人士预计第三季度生产率将增长 2.6%，这将是一年来的最大增幅。
Then there’s a report on productivity on Thursday which forecasters expect to show a 2.6% boost in the third quarter, which would be the biggest in a year.
转向北方，加拿大也将于周五公布就业数据。经济学家预计，在加拿大上个月削减了 6.83 万个就业岗位后，10 月份失业率将大致维持在 6.5% 不变，指向劳动力市场疲软。
Turning north, Canada also reports jobs numbers on Friday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to have remained roughly unchanged at 6.5% in October after Canada shed 68,300 jobs the previous month, pointing to a soft labor market.
加拿大统计局（Statistics Canada）还将提供自美加谈判破裂以来，国际贸易表现的首份全月度评估。
Statistics Canada will also offer its first full-month assessment of how international trade has fared since talks between the US and Canada collapsed.
前一天，财政部长弗朗索瓦-菲利普·香槟将发布联邦政府预算，旨在在与美国持续的贸易决裂中刺激经济增长。预计政府将把高油价带来的财政意外之财用于鼓励投资的税收措施，以及旨在改善可负担性的项目。政府刻意将这份名为《掌握我们命运》的预算安排在美国中期选举之后发布。
A day earlier, Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne will release the federal government’s budget, aimed at stimulating economic growth amid the ongoing trade rupture with the US. The government is expected to spend its fiscal windfall from high oil prices on tax measures to encourage investment, as well as programs aimed at improving affordability. The government intentionally scheduled the budget, titled Masters of Our Destiny, for after the US midterm elections.
在其他方面，从英国到澳大利亚可能的加息、巴西大选后备受关注的央行决策、亚洲采购经理指数，以及欧洲主要经济体的通胀数据将是看点之一。
Elsewhere, possible rate hikes from the UK to Australia, a closely watched post-election central-bank decision in Brazil, Asian purchasing manager indexes, and inflation data from key economies around Europe will be among the highlights.
点击此处了解过去一周发生的事情，以下是我们对未来全球经济大事的梳理。
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.
亚洲 第一个主要数据将于周日出炉，届时韩国将公布10月出口是否延续了高两位数的月度增长。9月出口创纪录，虽然经济学家预计将较该数值放缓，但仍预测10月出口值将超过1100亿美元。
Asia The first major piece of data is due on Sunday, when South Korea reports whether exports in October continued their high double-digit monthly growth. Shipments in September hit a record, and while economists expect a slowdown from that number they still forecast the value to exceed $110 billion in October.
周一，多国将公布采购经理指数，显示今年以来看到的强劲工厂表现是否延续到了10月。
On Monday, purchasing manager indexes are due from several countries, showing whether the strong factory performance seen so far this year continued into October.
央行决策也将成为未来一周的焦点，澳大利亚和马来西亚货币当局均将定息。
Central bank decisions will also be in focus in the coming week, with the Australian and Malaysian monetary authorities both setting rates.
大多数观察人士预计，澳大利亚储备银行将于周二再次加息，因为通胀持续加快；而马来西亚决策者预计将于周四维持利率不变。不过，考虑到亚洲近期接连出现意外决策，目前每次会议的结果都充满变数。
The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday is expected by most observers to hike again after inflation continued to get faster, while Malaysian policymakers are forecast to hold rates steady on Thursday. However, given the recent run of surprise decisions in Asia, the outcome of every meeting looks live at this point.
周四，日本央行还将公布9月会议纪要，当时该行加息，澳洲联储副行长安德鲁·豪泽（Andrew Hauser）将发表讲话。周六，日本央行行长植田和男将在华盛顿特区发表演讲。
Also on Thursday, the Bank of Japan will release minutes from its September meeting, when it hiked rates, and RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is due to speak. On Saturday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech in Washington DC.
澳大利亚月度住房数据将于周一公布，预计全国房价跌势将延续，而周四的贸易数据将显示，不断上涨的燃料成本以及新数据中心对芯片和服务器的需求，是否在9月继续推动进口增长。香港将于周二公布第三季度GDP，随后印尼将于周四公布。
Monthly housing figures from Australia are due on Monday, with a decline in prices expected to continue across the country, while trade numbers on Thursday will show whether rising fuel costs and demand for chips and servers for new data centers continued to drive import growth in September. Hong Kong will announce third-quarter GDP on Tuesday, followed by Indonesia on Thursday.
新西兰将于周三公布第三季度失业和工资数据，这是周六大选前的最后一项经济数据发布。英国央行周四有望时隔三年多首次加息，决议将包含新一轮预测。
New Zealand on Wednesday is set to announce jobless and wages data for the third quarter, the final economic release before the national election on Saturday. The Bank of England is likely to raise its key rate for the first time in more than three years on Thursday, in a decision featuring a new round of forecasts.
随着能源驱动的通胀冲击持续，且行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）近期警告称，行动压力越来越难以抗拒，此举将使英国与七国集团（G7）的紧缩步伐保持一致。
With the energy-driven inflation shock persisting and Governor Andrew Bailey having warned recently that pressure to act is getting harder to resist, the move would align the UK with a tightening push across the Group of Seven.
瑞典央行也预计将采取行动。官员可能于周三加息25个基点，至2%，因为经济增强和战争相关的能源供应中断持续，增加了通胀超标的风险。消费者物价数据将于次日公布。
Sweden’s Riksbank is also expected to act. Officials may hike their rate on Wednesday by a quarter point, to 2%, as a strengthening economy and continued war-related disruption to energy supplies increase the risk of inflation exceeding target. A reading of consumer prices comes out the following day.
挪威基准利率已高达4.5%，预计将维持不变。核心通胀稳定在3%，投资者可能关注挪威央行任何暗示12月加息的言论，这将使借贷成本升至2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。
Norway, with a benchmark already much higher at 4.5%, is anticipated to see no change. With core inflation steady at 3%, investors may focus on any Norges Bank comments signaling a hike in December that would bring borrowing costs there to the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
转向东欧，预计波兰货币政策委员会将在周三维持借贷成本不变，但一场不断升级的政治纷争有可能使央行陷入瘫痪，这可能会使前景变得复杂。与此同时，捷克共和国周四在布拉格加息的可能性很大。
Turning to Eastern Europe, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is anticipated to keep borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday, but an escalating political spat that threatens to cripple the central bank may complicate the outlook. In Prague on Thursday, meanwhile, a Czech Republic rate hike is on the cards.
在欧元区，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德刚刚淡化了通胀蔓延至能源以外领域的风险，周三将公布的10月消费者价格数据将显示这种情况是否依然存在。
In the euro zone, where European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde just played down the danger of inflation spreading beyond energy, new data will signal if that’s still the case with the October reading of consumer prices on Wednesday.
次日公布的欧洲央行工资追踪指标也可能引起关注，而接替拉加德的竞争可能会加剧，因为她已宣布计划于2月卸任。多位决策者也将公开露面，包括周四在一个大型会议上的发言。
The ECB’s wage tracker the following day may also draw attention, while the race to succeed Lagarde is likely to intensify now that she’s announced her plan to step down in February. Multiple appearances by policymakers are also on the calendar, including at a major conference on Thursday.
该地区一些最大经济体的制造业数据也将显示第三季度末是否有动能。德国工厂订单将于周四公布，工业产出将于周五公布，而法国和西班牙的数据将分别于这两天公布。
Manufacturing data from some of the region’s biggest economies will also point to any momentum at the end of the third quarter. German factory orders come out on Thursday and industrial production on Friday, while numbers from France and Spain are due on those two days respectively.
瑞士的通胀数据定于周二发布，而瑞士国家银行行长马丁·施莱格尔将在两天后发表讲话。
Switzerland’s inflation release is scheduled for Tuesday, while Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel will speak two days later.
同一天，土耳其将公布通胀数据，预计10月通胀率已放缓至29.5%。央行刚刚自1月以来首次降息，将利率从37%下调至36%，并表示未来的降息将逐次会议予以考虑。
The same day, Turkey will publish inflation data, which is seen to have slowed to 29.5% in October. The central bank just lowered rates for the first time since January, to 36% from 37%, and said future cuts would be considered on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
南非储备银行将于周二举办年度市场从业者小组会议。会议将提供关于向兰特隔夜指数平均利率（称为Zaronia）过渡的最新情况，该利率将于今年年底取代约翰内斯堡银行间平均利率。
The South African Reserve Bank will hold its annual Market Practitioners Group conference on Tuesday. It will provide an update on the transition to the rand overnight index average, known as Zaronia, which replaces the Johannesburg interbank average rate at the end of this year.
最后，赞比亚财政部长西通贝科·穆索科特韦将于周五向议员提交2027年预算。
Finally, Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane delivers his 2027 budget to lawmakers on Friday.
秘鲁将于周日公布首都利马10月消费者物价数据，市场共识预计年率将从9月的4.55%加速上升。
Peru on Sunday posts October consumer prices data for the capital city of Lima, and the consensus expects the annual print to accelerate from September’s 4.55% reading.
自2025年9月以来，秘鲁央行一直维持基准利率在4.25%不变，但如果上月通胀读数接近预期，秘鲁央行可能别无选择，只能在11月12日的会议上收紧政策。
The central bank has been on hold at 4.25% since September 2025, but if last month’s inflation readings come in near estimates, the BCRP may have little choice but to tighten at its Nov. 12 meeting.
在哥伦比亚，央行的季度货币政策报告可能会因8月发生的7.4级强烈地震而下调增长预期，并可能上调消费者物价预期。
In Colombia, the central bank’s quarterly monetary policy report will likely mark down growth estimates in light of August’s massive 7.4-magnitude earthquake, and possibly push up consumer price estimates as well.
此外，央行10月30日决定维持利率在12.25%不变的会议纪要——当时有增长乏力迹象——预计仍将偏鹰派，因通胀仍在上行且预期未锚定。
Separately, the minutes of the central bank’s Oct. 30 decision to deliver a hold at 12.25% amid signs of faltering growth will likely remain hawkish, with inflation still moving higher and expectations unanchored.
在巴西，央行在11月3日至4日的会议上连续第六次降息25个基点、将塞利克利率降至13.5%，原本被视为板上钉钉。
In Brazil, a sixth straight quarter-point rate reduction, putting the Selic at 13.5%, had looked to be a sure thing at the central bank’s Nov. 3-4 meeting.
但路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在10月25日大选中的惊人胜利，使其获得第四个任期，以及随后发生的剧烈市场抛售，打乱了巴西央行的政策前景。对货币走弱的担忧以及对政府整顿财政计划毫无头绪，导致不少分析师和经济学家将预测修正为维持利率在13.75%不变。
But Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s shock victory in the Oct. 25 election, giving him a fourth term, and the subsequent violent market selloff, upended the BCB’s policy outlook. Concern about currency weakness and no hint as to plans for getting government finances back in order has seen more than a few analysts and economists revise their forecast to a rate hold at 13.75%.
智利即将公布的9月活动报告恐怕不会留有疑问，即经济在第三季度收缩。
Chile’s September activity report in the coming week is likely to leave little doubt that the economy shrank in the third quarter.
央行10月维持利率不变——借贷成本连续第七次会议维持在4.5%——的会议纪要可能转向鹰派，而即将公布的通胀数据可能显示10月通胀升至4.6%，高于9月的4.1%，几乎不留政策操作空间。
The minutes of the central bank’s October rate hold — borrowing costs were held at 4.5% for a seventh straight meeting — may tilt into hawkish terrain, while incoming inflation data may show an October rise of 4.6% against 4.1% in September, offering scant room for maneuver.
在墨西哥，央行极大可能连续第四次会议维持关键利率在6.5%不变，因年通胀加速超预期，进一步偏离3%目标。
In Mexico, the central bank will more than likely keep its key rate unchanged at 6.5% for a fourth straight meeting after annual inflation accelerated more than expected to move further above its 3% target.