俄罗斯的影响力近年来在非洲年轻人中激增，超越了前殖民宗主国法国，但仍落后于中国，一项针对非洲青年的调查发现。
Russia’s influence has surged among young people across Africa in recent years, leaping over former colonial power France while still trailing China, a survey of African youths has found.
观察人士表示，许多非洲年轻人现在认为俄罗斯是盟友，并警告其竞争对手要认真对待这一转变，因为该大陆对莫斯科和北京而言变得日益关键。
Many young Africans now perceive Russia to be an ally, observers said, warning its rivals to take the shift seriously as the continent becomes increasingly critical to both Moscow and Beijing.
根据南非伊奇科维茨家族基金会委托开展的“非洲青年调查”，54% 的 18 至 24 岁非洲年轻人认为俄罗斯有影响力，高于两年前的 44%。该调查于 3 月在 16 个非洲国家访问了 4901 名受访者。
According to the African Youth Survey commissioned by the South Africa-based Ichikowitz Family Foundation, 54 per cent of young Africans aged 18 to 24 viewed Russia as influential, up from 44 per cent two years earlier. The survey interviewed 4,901 respondents across 16 African countries in March.
这意味着俄罗斯的感知影响力排名高于前殖民宗主国法国，后者在调查中为 47%。
This means that Russia’s perceived influence ranks higher than that of former colonial power France, which tallied 47 per cent in the survey.
报告称：“调查结果显示，俄罗斯跻身许多非洲青年好感度较高的外部大国之列，尽管中国的评价仍更高。”
“The findings put Russia among the foreign powers viewed warmly by many young Africans, although China remains more highly rated,” the report said.
根据美国智库皮尤研究中心的数据，与其他大陆相比，非洲拥有全球最年轻的人口，其 15 亿人口的年龄中位数为 19 岁。
Relative to other continents, Africa has the world’s youngest population, with the median age of its 1.5 billion people at 19 years, according to the Pew Research Centre, a US-based think tank.
报告称，在提到俄罗斯影响力的那些非洲年轻人中，83% 认为这种影响力是积极的，甚至更高比例——86%——认为“俄罗斯强大或多少是个盟友”。
Among those young Africans who cited Russia’s influence, 83 per cent saw it as something positive, with an even higher number – 86 per cent – seeing “Russia as strong or somewhat of an ally”, according to the report.
然而，对俄罗斯影响力的看法在非洲各地有所不同，在接受调查的 16 个国家中，布基纳法索达到 95%，刚果（布拉柴维尔）为 69%，乍得为 65%。这三国均为前法国殖民地。
Yet, the perception of Russian influence varied across Africa, reaching 95 per cent in Burkina Faso, 69 per cent in Congo-Brazzaville and 65 per cent in Chad among the 16 surveyed countries. All three countries were former French colonies.
这三国连同马里、尼日尔和中非共和国，是过去十年间俄罗斯获得影响力、而法国或失势、或持平、或撤退的国家。
The three, alongside Mali, Niger and the Central African Republic, were countries where Russia gained influence as France either lost ground, held steady or retreated over the last decade.
2022年至2023年间，法国军队被驱逐出法属萨赫勒地区的数个前殖民地。法国撤军后，由阿卜杜拉哈马内·奇亚尼领导的尼日尔军政府于2024年下令美国关闭其军事基地，此前该军政府决定加强与俄罗斯的关系。
Between 2022 and 2023, French troops were expelled from several of France’s former colonies in the Sahel. Following the French departure, the military junta in Niger, led by Abdourahamane Tchiani, ordered the US in 2024 to shut down its military bases after choosing to boost ties with Russia.
“俄罗斯取得了几年前难以想象的成就，”委托该研究的基金会创始人伊沃·伊奇科维茨表示。
“Russia has achieved something that would have been difficult to imagine a few years ago,” said Ivor Ichikowitz, founder of the foundation that commissioned the study.
“它在感知影响力方面已超越法国，大量非洲青年现在将其视为盟友。”伊奇科维茨说，这一发展是俄罗斯的对手需要“认真对待”的，只能“自担风险”地予以忽视。
“It has overtaken France in perceived influence, and large numbers of young Africans now see it as an ally.”Ichikowitz said that the development was something Russia’s rivals needed to take “seriously” and could only ignore “at their peril”.
另外，80%的受访者表示担心外国势力在其国家的影响力，高于两年前的72%。
Separately, 80 per cent of respondents said they were concerned about foreign influence in their countries, up from 72 per cent two years earlier.
相当一部分受访者，即39%，希望在与外国伙伴打交道时保护本国自然资源。另有34%受访者表示，尊重主权是选择外国伙伴时的重要考量。
A substantial number, 39 per cent, would want their country’s natural resources protected in dealings with foreign partners. Another 34 per cent said respect for sovereignty was important in choosing a foreign partner.
对43%的受访者而言，通过伙伴关系确保经济价值很重要，特别是基础设施投资。
And for 43 per cent of the respondents, securing economic value through a partnership was important, particularly investments in infrastructure.
此次调查结果的发布恰逢第三届俄罗斯-非洲峰会在莫斯科举行，为期周三至周四两天。旨在推动克里姆林宫与非洲大陆伙伴关系的该活动吸引了22位非洲国家元首出席，俄罗斯总统普京接待了来自48个国家的代表团。
The release of the survey findings coincided with the third edition of the Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow, held over Wednesday and Thursday. Meant to advance partnership between the Kremlin and the continent, the event drew 22 African heads of state as Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted delegations from 48 countries.
英国智库查塔姆屋非洲项目主任蒂吉斯蒂·阿马雷表示，在美中为争夺非洲关键矿产及其他战略经济需求展开激烈竞争之际，俄罗斯更专注于军事和国防合作。
Amid fierce US-China competition over access to Africa’s critical minerals and other strategic economic needs, Russia has been more focused on military and defence cooperation, according to Tighisti Amare, director of the Africa programme at Chatham House, a Britain-based think tank.
然而，阿马雷表示，最近的峰会显示，确保获取非洲的重要矿产、通过推广替代性全球支付系统来减轻西方制裁的影响，以及粮食和能源安全，已成为同样重要的合作焦点。分析人士表示，借此次峰会，俄罗斯似乎正在效仿中国的策略。
However, the recent summit revealed that securing access to important minerals found in Africa, reducing the effects of Western sanctions through the promotion of alternative global payment systems, as well as food and energy security, had become equally important focal points of cooperation, Amare said. With the summit, Russia appeared to be borrowing from China’s playbook, analysts said.
就像中国-非洲合作论坛——北京与非洲大陆国家接触的多边平台——一样，俄罗斯-非洲峰会可以被视为对西方世界观主导地位的拒绝，以及一种替代性路径。
Like the Forum on China-African Cooperation – Beijing’s multilateral platform for engaging countries on the continent – the Russia-Africa Summit could be taken as a rejection of the dominance of the Western world view and an alternative tack.
“非洲对俄罗斯和中国来说，现在比近几十年任何时候都更加重要，”美国德尔菲全球研究中心高级研究员罗伯特·汉密尔顿说。
“Africa matters to both Russia and China now more than at any time in recent decades,” said Robert Hamilton, senior fellow at the US-based Delphi Global Research Centre.
汉密尔顿认为，莫斯科试图“钝化孤立并从不安全中获利”，而北京则旨在“巩固替代性全球秩序并保护长期投资”。
Moscow sought to “blunt isolation and profit from insecurity”, Hamilton argued, while Beijing aimed to “consolidate an alternative global order and protect long-term investments”.
2026年版的《非洲青年调查》显示，自2024年以来，中国和印度等外国国家的感知影响力有所增长，北京现在被非洲青年视为比以往更有利的合作伙伴。
The 2026 edition of the African Youth Survey said the perceived influence of foreign countries like China and India had grown since 2024, with Beijing now viewed as a more favourable partner by young Africans than before.
然而，该研究发现，非洲青年对外国影响仍存持续担忧，“反映出国际接触的感知收益与对主权和自决的焦虑之间持续存在的紧张关系”。
Still, the study found that African youth harboured lingering concerns about foreign influence, “reflecting an enduring tension between the perceived benefits of international engagement and anxieties about sovereignty and self-determination”.