民主党国会候选人丽莎·金尼于2026年10月19日在怀俄明州卡斯珀的Johnny J's Diner竞选造势。
Democratic congressional hopeful Lisa Kinney campaigns at Johnny J's Diner in Casper, Wyo. on October 19, 2026.
Natalie Behring for NPR 本选举周期，关于可能决定哪个党派控制国会的竞争性选战，已有大量报道。
Natalie Behring for NPR Much ink has been spilled this election cycle about the competitive races that could determine which party controls Congress.
但摇摆选区仅占国会选战的一小部分。绝大多数——80%——被评为稳固共和党或稳固民主党。逆政治潮流而动的候选人面临艰难战斗，其竞选活动以资源有限、捐赠者减少、人手短缺为特征。当政治常识认为你大概率会输时，竞选国会议员是种什么体验？这是丽莎·金尼反复听到的问题。
But tossup districts represent only a fraction of congressional races. The vast majority — 80% — are rated solid Republican or solid Democrat. Candidates running against the political grain face an uphill battle, with campaigns marked by limited resources, dwindling donors, and scarce staff. What's it like to run for Congress when political wisdom says you'll probably lose? It's a question Lisa Kinney has heard again and again.
她以民主党人身份竞选怀俄明州唯一的众议院席位。自20世纪70年代末以来，该州只派共和党人进入国会。
She's running as a Democrat for the lone House seat in Wyoming. Since the late 1970s, it has only sent Republicans to Congress.
“我不认为怀俄明州民众总能听到双方的声音，”金尼在卡斯珀的一天竞选活动中表示，“我很乐意提供另一种观点。而且我是怀俄明州人，所以无论发生什么我依然是温和派。” 你从对手的一则广告中看不出这一点，该广告将她与进步派人物、来自佛蒙特州的独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯和纽约市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼放在一起。金尼说她觉得这既好笑又令人费解。
"I don't think the people of Wyoming always hear both sides," Kinney says during a day of campaigning in Casper. "I'm glad to give another opinion. And I'm a Wyomingite, so I'm still moderate no matter what." You wouldn't know it from an ad from her opponent that places her next to progressive figures Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Kinney says she finds it funny, albeit bemusing.
“他怎么想的——以为我们都聚在一起搞社会主义那套？”她一边走进Johnny J's与早起食客交谈，一边轻声笑着。
"What's he thinking — that we all get together and do socialist stuff?" she chuckles as she walks into Johnny J's to talk to early risers.
浏览完山核桃卷和肉桂卷后，金尼穿过拥挤的餐厅。她遭遇了一些匆忙的“不”回应，这些人想把政治隔离在煎饼之外——还有一位绅士表示无法支持一个不支持移民与海关执法局的政党，一位女士则不喜欢民主党在跨性别问题上的立场。
After perusing the pecan and cinnamon rolls, Kinney makes her way through the crowded diner. She's met with some hasty "nopes" from people who want to keep politics away from their pancakes — along with a gentleman who says he can't support a party that doesn't back Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a woman who doesn't like Democrats' stance on trans issues.
亨特·斯维科夫斯基骑着马来到怀俄明州卡斯珀购物。“眼下柴油价格这么高，骑马划算多了，”他说。斯维科夫斯基表示自己不太关心政治，但还是从丽莎·金尼手里接过了一张名片。金尼正在竞选该州唯一的联邦众议员席位。
Hunter Svejkovsky brought his horses out shopping in Casper, Wyo. "With the price of diesel right now, it's a lot cheaper," he said. Svejkovsky said he's not very politically active, but took a card from Lisa Kinney, who's running for the sole U.S. House seat in the state.
随后她遇到了乔·贝克，此人不认同任何党派。他说对特朗普政府感到厌倦，但怀疑金尼能否有所作为。“你打算怎么扭转局面？”他问道，眉头高挑。
Then she meets Joe Beck, who doesn't identify with either party. He says he's fed up with the Trump administration, but is skeptical Kinney could make a difference. "How are going to turn things around?" he asks, eyebrows raised.
“你需要派个这样的人进去——那就是我——一个能跟共和党人对话、也能跟民主党人对话的温和派，”她说道。“我向你发誓，我们一定能有所作为。”两人聊了10分钟。最后，他说其实已经投了她的票——但他并不乐观。
"You need a person in there — that's me — who's a moderate who can talk to Republicans, who can talk to Democrats," she says. "I swear to you we're going to make a difference." They chat for 10 minutes. At the end, he says he's actually already voted for her — but he's not optimistic.
“你面临的是一场艰难的战斗。这是全美最红的州，”他警告道。“我为你鼓掌——但海啸将在11月第一个星期二向你袭来。”由于缺乏党内基础设施支持，金尼这位前州参议员的竞选没有竞选办公室。这意味着全州只有寥寥几名“助手”，以及无数小时在路上奔波，传播她保护公共土地、降低医疗成本的主张。
"You have an uphill battle. This is the reddest state in the nation," he warns. "I applaud you — but there's a tsunami coming at you on the first Tuesday in November." Mounting a run with little party infrastructure means no campaign office for Kinney, a former state senator. It means just a handful of "helpers" across the state and countless hours on the road to spread her message of preserving public lands and lowering health care costs.
“确实很累——但我们必须见尽可能多的人，”她说。“如果他们能见到我，投票给我的时候就会更放心。”金尼的丈夫罗德尼·兰说，对他们而言，胜利不仅仅关乎选举日的结果。
"It's really tiring — but we have to see as many people as we can," she says. "If they can meet me, they feel more comfortable voting for me." Rodney Lang, Kinney's husband, says a win for them is more than just the election day results.
2026年10月19日，怀俄明州卡斯珀一家餐馆里的一位选民在手机上展示选票照片，表明他投了丽莎·金尼的票。
A voter at a diner in Casper, Wyo., shows a photo of his ballot on his phone on Oct. 19, 2026, indicating he voted for Lisa Kinney.
“如果我们输了，好消息是党变强了，我们觉得自己为此做出了贡献，”他说。
"If we lose, the good news is the party's stronger, and we think we've contributed to that," he says.
金尼称自己是现实主义者，她说知道州内许多人会投给名字旁边有“R”字母的任何候选人。“但我始终相信我能赢，”她补充道。
Kinney calls herself a realist and says she knows many in the state will vote for whoever has an "R" next to their name. "But I always have it in my mind that I can win," she adds.
“光靠一腔热血是不够的” 两千英里之外，房屋建筑商、前橄榄球教练乔治·奥斯汀说，他对金尼有一种同类相惜的感觉。
'You can't just give it the ole college try' Two thousand miles away, George Austin, a home builder and former football coach, says he feels a sense of kinship with Kinney.
“我为之喝彩、钦佩、共情、同情，所有处境相同的人，每一个人，”他说。
"I applaud, I admire, I empathize, I commiserate with anyone and everyone who is in the same boat," he says.
康涅狄格州萨菲尔德的乔治·奥斯汀，38岁，康涅狄格州第2国会选区共和党候选人，2026年10月30日站在康涅狄格州恩菲尔德的恩菲尔德市政厅外。奥斯汀正在挑战自2007年以来一直代表这个以民主党为主的选区的民主党众议员乔·科特尼。
George Austin, 38, of Suffield, Conn., the Republican candidate for Connecticut's 2nd Congressional District, stands outside Enfield Town Hall in Enfield, Conn., on Oct. 30, 2026. Austin is challenging Democratic Rep. Joe Courtney, who has represented the largely Democratic district since 2007.
克里斯托弗·卡波齐耶洛 摄，供NPR使用 这两人是同一枚硬币的两面；金尼是在红州参选的一点蓝，奥斯汀则是在民主党大本营康涅狄格州参选的共和党人。
Christopher Capozziello for NPR The pair are flip sides of the same coin; Kinney a speck of blue running in a red state, and Austin a Republican running in the Democratic stronghold of Connecticut.
他们近距离观察到一种酝酿已久的动态——各州根深蒂固的党派对立。
They see up close a dynamic that has been brewing for some time — deep partisan entrenchment in states.
“在本届国会中，有19个州的国会代表团完全由同一政党的众议员和参议员组成，”无党派政治新闻网站“Smart Politics”创始人埃里克·奥斯特迈尔说。“这是近四分之三个世纪以来的高水位线——上一次看到这么高的数字还是1953年。” 他说，造成这些“单一党派倾向”的原因不止一个。选区划分操纵起了作用，稀释了政治少数派的投票力量。
"In this Congress, there are 19 state delegations comprised of only representatives and senators from the same political party," said Eric Ostermeier, founder of the nonpartisan political news site Smart Politics. "That is a high watermark for nearly three quarters of a century — 1953 is the last time we saw numbers that high." He says there's not just one reason for these "monolithic partisan tendencies." Gerrymandering plays a role, diluting the voting strength of political minorities.
但安全的国会席位也可以在没有操纵的情况下产生，选民往往按地理位置自我分类。此外，奥斯特迈尔说，州级党派很难将自己与全国性的党派身份区分开来。
But safe congressional seats are also produced without manipulation, with voters often sorting themselves geographically. Additionally, Ostermeier said it's difficult for state partisans to separate themselves from the national party identity.
“州级候选人要说‘我是怀俄明州的民主党人，不是华盛顿的民主党人’——这更难了，你会被全国政党的标签所污染，”奥斯特迈尔说。
"It's harder for a state office candidate to say, 'I'm a Wyoming Democrat, I'm not a Washington Democrat' — you get tainted by the national party," Ostermeier said.
2026年10月30日，奥斯汀在康涅狄格州恩菲尔德的恩菲尔德市政厅外参加一个万圣节“车尾箱讨糖”活动。
Austin attends a trunk-or-treat Halloween event outside Enfield Town Hall in Enfield, Conn., on Oct. 30, 2026.
奥斯汀亲身经历过这种情况，一些选民在发现他是共和党人或在谈话中提到前总统特朗普后，便迅速失去兴趣。
Austin has experienced that himself, with some voters quickly disengaging when they discover he's a Republican or once President Trump comes up in conversation. "They ask me if I voted for him.
“他们会问我是否投票给他。我会说，‘当然投了。’于是我们从未有机会讨论原因，”他说，并补充说他在某些方面与政府存在分歧。他试图把对话引向更容易达成共识的话题，例如对国会僵局的感慨、推动设立任期限制，或为人工智能设定防护措施。
I say, 'of course I did.' And we never get to discuss why," he says, adding there are areas where he disagrees with the administration He tries to steer conversations towards issues where there tends to be more common ground, like lamenting congressional gridlock, pushing for term limits, or placing guardrails on AI.
奥斯汀正竞选康涅狄格州第二国会选区的议员席位，该区的民主党现任议员乔·考特尼已轻松连任20年。自2008年以来，州内民主党已连续赢得45届美国众议院选举。“我们在代表性上没有任何多样性，”奥斯汀说。“我想尝试恢复一些平衡。”他指出该州大量无竞争的选举也是他的动机之一。
Austin is running to represent Connecticut's second congressional district, where the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Joe Courtney, has easily won reelection for 20 years. Democrats in the state have won 45 straight U.S. House elections since 2008 "We haven't had any variety, any diversity in representation," Austin says. "I want to try to restore some balance." He points to the high number of uncontested races in the state as another motivator.
“我想赢，我有竞争力，我相信这个事业——但这只是表面的动机，”奥斯汀解释道。“更细致的动机是，我想成为一个催化剂，让其他勤劳的男女、其他普通的‘乔’们看到这值得去做。”
"I want to win, I'm competitive and I believe in the cause — but that's the superficial motivation," Austin explained. "The nuanced one is that I want to be a catalyst to show other working men and women, other regular Joes out there, that this is worthwhile."
乔治·奥斯汀决定参选，是因为他认为代表性缺乏‘多样性’。在全国范围内，许多州立法席位在选举日前就已基本确定，因为缺乏有竞争力的挑战者。在康涅狄格州，州议会187个席位中有46个是无竞争的。奥斯汀在竞选中身兼多职，包括日程安排员和志愿者协调员。他还自掏25万美元投入竞选，这显示了此类选举的财政压力。
George Austin decided to run for office because of what he saw as a lack of "diversity in representation." Nationally, a significant of state legislative seats are decided well ahead of Election Day because of the lack of competitive challengers. In Connecticut, 46 of the state legislature's 187 seats are uncontested Austin wears "many hats" in his campaign, including scheduler and volunteer coordinator. He also put a quarter of a million of his own money into the campaign, a sign of the financial toll these races can take.
“我很成功，但离富裕还有很大差距——这正是人民应得的，也是这场选举应得的，”他说。他说，即使政治形势对自己不利，参选仍然很重要。
"I'm successful, but I'm a far cry from wealthy — it's just what the people deserved, it's what the race deserved," he says. He says it's important to run, even when the political odds are stacked against you.
“提醒一句——你真的必须想清楚，自己参选是否是出于正确的理由，因为你会少睡很多觉，”他说。”我实话告诉你，这不是人人都能干的事。你不能只是敷衍了事地试一把——无论你多么势单力薄，这场竞选都不该被如此对待。”他承认，像他和金尼这样的政治少数派，前路充满挑战，但意义重大。
"Word of caution — you really have to decide if you're in it for the right reasons because you're going to lose a whole bunch of sleep," he says. "It ain't for everyone, I'll tell you that right now. You can't just give it the ole college try – that's not what the race deserves, regardless of how outnumbered you are." He acknowledges the path for a political minority like him — and Kinney — is challenging – but important.
“我绝不认为我的竞选是注定失败的，”他说。“但即使真是如此，你也可以说，只有那些注定失败的事业才值得为之奋斗。”康涅狄格公共广播电台的克里斯·波兰斯基对本文亦有贡献。
"I definitely don't think that my race is a lost cause," he says. "But even if it was, you could argue that lost causes are the only ones worth fighting for." Chris Polansky from Connecticut Public contributed reporting.