
生物武器在国际法下被禁止。但生物技术和人工智能的新发展令人担忧。德国之声就其历史、风险及管控等最重要的问题进行了解答。
Biological weapons are prohibited under international law. But new developments in biotech and AI are a cause for concern. DW addresses some of the most important questions about their history, risks, and control.
人工智能可能被滥用于开发生物武器。这听起来像是科幻小说,但科学家、情报机构和国际组织都在探讨如何应对这一情景。
Artificial intelligence could potentially be misused to develop biological weapons. This may sound like science fiction, but scientists, security services, and international organizations are all looking at how to deal with this scenario .
得益于生物技术的持续发展,病原体能够以越来越高的精度被分析和改造。与此同时,人工智能能够以惊人的速度评估海量数据。因此,专家警告称,从长远来看,现代技术也可能被滥用于开发生物武器。
Pathogens can be analyzed and altered with ever greater precision thanks to ongoing developments in biotechnology. Meanwhile, AI is able to evaluate vast quantities of data at astonishing speeds. As a result, experts are warning that, in the long term, modern technologies could also be misused to develop biological weapons.
情报机构对此感到担忧。2026年10月,英国国内情报机构军情五处(MI5)负责人肯·麦卡勒姆警告称,人工智能可能增加现有或新型生物武器带来的风险——包括来自非国家行为体的风险。合法研究与滥用之间的微妙界限美国人工智能公司Anthropic于2026年9月发布的一份报告凸显了这一辩论的时效性。Anthropic表示,该公司已识别并阻止了多起试图利用其人工智能助手Claude进行潜在生物武器研究的行为。
Security services are concerned. In October 2026, Ken McCallum, head of the British domestic intelligence service MI5, warned that artificial intelligence could increase the risk from existing, or new, biological weapons – including from non-state actors . Fine line between valid research and misuse A report by the American AI company Anthropic in September 2026 highlights the topicality of the debate. Anthropic said it had identified and blocked numerous attempts to use its AI assistant Claude in connection with possible biological weapon research.
报告称,这些尝试包括针对所谓“功能获得性”研究的资助申请,以及旨在研究对哺乳动物潜在传播性最强的禽流感变异株的项目。
The report said these attempts included grant applications for so-called "gain-of-function" research, as well as projects to research avian influenza variants that were potentially the most transmissible to mammals.
同时,Anthropic强调,尽管此类研究可能具有军事应用,但也可能关乎医学预防。难以区分合法科学及其可能的滥用,是现代生物技术管控面临的最大问题之一。什么是生物武器?
At the same time, Anthropic stressed that, although it could have a military application, such research could also relate to medical prevention. The difficulty in distinguishing between legitimate science and its possible misuse is one of the biggest problems in terms of the control of modern biotechnologies. What are biological weapons?
对生物武器的担忧绝非新鲜事。许多病原体——细菌、病毒、真菌以及某些生物毒素——都具有武器化的潜力。熟知的疾病包括鼠疫、天花和肉毒杆菌毒素,但炭疽是最臭名昭著的生物制剂之一。其耐受性芽孢能在环境中长期存活,也一直是国家生物武器计划研究的重点。融化的冰层带来新危险并世界卫生组织(WHO)和联合国裁军事务厅将生物武器定义为:为伤害人、动物或植物之目的,有针对性地释放此类生物物质。
Concerns about biological weapons are by no means new. Many pathogens — bacteria, viruses, fungi, and certain biological toxins — have the potential for weaponization. Familiar diseases include plague , smallpox, and botulinum toxin, but anthrax is one of the most notorious biological agents. Its resistant spores can survive a long time in the environment, and it has also been the focus of research by state biological weapons programs. Melting ice brings new dangers To view this video please enable JavaScript, and The World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs define a biological weapon as the targeted release of such biological substances for the purpose of injuring people, animals, or plants.
生物武器通常由两部分组成:生物物质本身,以及一种传播系统。专家将其称为“制剂”,如病毒或细菌,和“投送机制”。后者的例子包括导弹、喷洒系统和受污染的食物。
A biological weapon usually has two components: The biological substance itself, and a system for disseminating it. Experts refer to these as the "agent," such as a virus or bacterium, and the "delivery mechanism." Examples of the latter include missiles, spraying systems, and contaminated food.
生物武器与原子(核)武器、化学武器并称为所谓的“ABC武器”。它们常也被归类为大规模杀伤性武器。它们与化学武器有何不同?
Biological weapons belong to the so-called ABC weapons, alongside atomic (nuclear) and chemical weapons. They are often also counted as weapons of mass destruction. How do they differ from chemical weapons?
生物武器和化学武器的作用机制不同。化学武器通过沙林或芥子气等化学物质的毒性效应伤害人员。它们往往在几分钟甚至几秒钟内生效。化学武器使用的例子包括一战中的毒气攻击,涉及氯气,后来还有芥子气;以及叙利亚内战中和伊拉克萨达姆·侯赛因部署神经毒气沙林。
Biological and chemical weapons differ in their mode of operation. Chemical weapons injure people through the toxic effects of chemical substances such as sarin or mustard gas. They will often take effect within minutes, or even seconds. Examples of the use of chemical weapons are the gas attacks in World War I, which involved chlorine gas, and later mustard gas; and the deployment of the nerve gas sarin in the Syrian civil war and by Saddam Hussein in Iraq .
相比之下,生物武器导致传染病。其效果只在部署数小时、数天甚至数周后显现。一些病原体还能在人与人之间传播,这意味着后果难以预测。
Biological weapons, on the other hand, cause infectious disease. The effects become apparent only hours, days, or even weeks after they have been deployed. Some pathogens are also capable of spreading from person to person, meaning that the outcome is difficult to predict.
总结来说:化学武器通过即时毒性杀伤或致伤,而生物武器则引发疾病。人际传播的可能性使得生物武器的效果特别难以预测。生物武器是否受到全球禁令的约束?
To summarize: Chemical weapons kill or injure through immediate toxicity, whereas biological weapons cause diseases. The possibility of human-to-human transmission makes the effect of a biological weapon particularly hard to calculate. Are biological weapons subject to a worldwide ban?
国际法禁止生物武器。第一部《生物武器公约》(BWC)于1975年生效。该公约禁止发展、储存、获取、保留、生产和转让生物武器和毒素武器。
Biological weapons are prohibited under international law. The first Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) came into force in 1975. This prohibits the development, stockpiling, acquisition, retention, production, and transfer of biological and toxin-based weapons.
该公约已获189个国家批准,可视为1925年《日内瓦议定书》的发展,后者禁止将生物武器作为作战手段使用。仅有少数国家未签署该协议,或已签署但未批准,其中包括以色列、埃及和叙利亚。所有加入该公约的国家也都承诺销毁所有储备、生产设施和运载工具。
The Convention, which has been ratified by 189 countries, can be seen as a development of the Geneva Protocol of 1925, which banned the use of biological weapons as a method of warfare. Only a few countries have not signed the agreement , or have signed but not ratified it, including Israel, Egypt, and Syria. All those who have acceded to the Convention have also committed themselves to destroying all stocks , production sites, and means of conveyance.
化学武器同样受到国际禁令约束,但其管控被视为更为完善。《化学武器公约》由禁止化学武器组织(OPCW)执行,该组织可实施核查并监督化学武器储备的销毁。
Chemical weapons are also internationally banned, but their control is seen as much more highly developed. The Chemical Weapons Convention is implemented by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons ( OPCW ), which can carry out inspections and oversee the destruction of chemical weapons stocks.
目前尚无针对生物武器的同类管控体系。各国担心核查可能暴露涉及医学、生物技术或制药工业的敏感研究数据。因此,生物武器的管控在很大程度上依赖透明度、自愿报告和诚信。
There is still no comparable system for controlling biological weapons . States fear that inspection could expose sensitive research data pertaining to medicine, biotechnology, or the pharmaceutical industry. This is why the control of biological weapons relies to a great extent on transparency, voluntary reporting, and good faith.
仅靠禁止生物武器的禁令不足以防止其使用,其中最著名的例子发生于2001年的美国。在“9·11”袭击事件发生几周后,数人收到含有炭疽孢子的信件。22人被感染,5人死亡。
One of the best-known examples of why the ban on biological weapons is insufficient on its own to prevent their use occurred in the United States in 2001. A few weeks after the attacks of September 11, several people received letters containing anthrax spores. 22 were infected, and five died.
百万美元悬赏:2001年,炭疽病菌通过邮寄方式被发送给几位知名美国人,这是一起国内恐怖主义行为。为什么生物武器如此难以揭露和控制?
Million-dollar reward: In 2001, anthrax was sent by post to several prominent Americans in an act of domestic terrorismImage: USPS/dpa/picture alliance Why are biological weapons so hard to expose and control?
发现生物武器计划,比控制核武器或化学武器的生产要困难得多。许多可用于研发生物武器的技术也具有民用用途。用于研发疫苗和药品的同一套实验室设备,理论上也可用于军事研究。
Finding biological weapons programs is much harder than controlling the production of nuclear or chemical weapons. Many technologies that could be used to develop biological weapons also have civilian applications. The same laboratory equipment used to develop vaccines and medicines could, in theory, also be used for military research.
专家将此称为“双重用途”问题。研究可以出于和平医疗目的进行,同时也可能具有军事应用。
Experts refer to this as the problem of dual use. Research can be done for peaceful medical purposes and, at the same time, have a military application.
此外,生物攻击最初可能看起来像是自然爆发的疾病。通常只有经过大量调查,才能确定病原体是被故意释放,还是自然发生。
Furthermore, a biological attack can initially look like a natural outbreak of disease. It is often only possible after extensive investigation to establish whether a pathogen was deliberately released or occurred naturally .
也许这也是为什么生物武器在历史上不同时期被使用过。历史记载从投毒水井,到用投石机将瘟疫受害者的尸体抛过被围困城镇的城墙。然而,这些方法的效果存在争议。本文译自德语。
Perhaps that is also why biological weapons have been deployed at various times throughout history. Historical reports range from the poisoning of wells to catapulting the corpses of plague victims over the walls of a besieged town. The effectiveness of these methods is, however, disputed. This article has been translated from German.