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轨道数据中心会毁掉夜空吗?Could Orbital Data Centers Ruin the Night Sky?

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在智利沙漠的一座山顶上,一架耗资8.05亿美元、由美国纳税人资助的望远镜刚刚睁开眼。

On the top of a mountain in the Chilean desert, an $800 million U.S.-taxpayer-funded telescope just opened its eye.

全新的薇拉·C·鲁宾天文台将对宇宙进行一项具有开创性的“巡天”观测,这是有史以来对其星系、小行星、超新星和黑洞最全面的编目。但鲁宾天文台的科学家们遇到一个问题。移动迅速、能反射光线的卫星正在他们的照片上留下白色条纹。

The brand-new Vera C. Rubin Observatory is supposed to complete a groundbreaking “survey” of the universe, the most comprehensive catalog of its galaxies, asteroids, supernovas and black holes ever completed. But Rubin’s scientists have encountered a problem. Fast-moving, light-reflecting satellites are leaving white streaks across their photographs.

卫星的大量增加对该天文台的工作构成了“生存威胁”,以绘制暗物质闻名的该天文台首席科学家J·安东尼·泰森说。

The proliferation of satellites is an “existential threat” to the observatory’s work, said J. Anthony Tyson, its chief scientist, who is best known for mapping dark matter.

泰森和其他科学家警告称,这些轨道机器将使从地球进行天文学研究变得越来越困难,并最终将使夜空变得面目全非。

Tyson and other scientists warn that these orbiting machines will make it increasingly difficult to do astronomical research from Earth—and, eventually, will render the night sky unrecognizable.

自1957年以来对每一次轨道火箭发射进行编目的天体物理学家乔纳森·麦克道威尔表示,目前轨道上有超过1.7万颗活跃卫星,而十年前大约为1000颗。他估计,十年后这个数字可能会超过10万。

Currently, there are more than 17,000 active satellites in orbit, compared with around 1,000 a decade ago, said Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist who has cataloged every orbital rocket launch since 1957. A decade from now, he estimates, there will probably be over 100,000.

卫星将太阳光反射回地球。随着卫星数量的增加,来自太空的光污染也将随之增加。

Satellites reflect sunlight back to Earth. As the number of satellites grows, so too will light pollution from space.“You’d see twice as many stars in the sky,” said Hanno Rein, an associate professor at the University of Toronto who has modeled light pollution from planned satellite constellations.

“你会在天空中看到两倍多的星星,”多伦多大学副教授汉诺·赖因说,他曾对规划中的卫星星座产生的光污染进行过建模。“但其中只有一半是真的。”另一半实际上将是穿梭于夜空的卫星。

“But only half of them would be real.”The other half would actually be satellites transiting the sky.

目前,卫星主要用于电信。其中大多数为星链所有,该卫星网络在世界各地提供互联网连接。

Currently, satellites are mainly used for telecommunications. The majority are owned by Starlink, which provides internet connectivity around the world.

未来,随着将物资发射到太空的成本降低,更多的公司和政府将发射自己的卫星。蓝色起源、谷歌、Cowboy Space等公司都表示,它们计划建造轨道数据中心,这些中心可能由数十万颗卫星组成。太空探索技术公司表示,其“群星思维”轨道数据中心将拥有超过100万颗卫星。

In the future, as it becomes cheaper to launch material into space, more companies and governments will launch their own satellites. Blue Origin, Google, Cowboy Space and others have all said they plan to build orbital data centers, which would likely consist of hundreds of thousands of satellites. SpaceX says its “Starmind” orbital data center would have over a million satellites.

目前的卫星体量并不算非常大。星链的卫星面积约4平方米,大致相当于一张特大号双人床。但参与轨道数据中心的卫星将大得多。太空探索技术公司在公开文件中称,参与其轨道数据中心的卫星面积将高达1500平方米。Cowboy Space表示其卫星面积将达到4800平方米,接近一个足球场的大小。

Satellites now aren’t very large. Starlink’s satellites are about four square meters in size, roughly equivalent to a king bed. But satellites involved in orbital data centers would be much larger. SpaceX said in public filings that the satellites involved in its orbital data center would be up to 1,500 square meters. Cowboy Space said its satellites would be 4,800 square meters, close to the size of a football field.

泰森说,太空探索技术公司已经自愿减轻了其星链卫星的亮度。他与太空探索技术公司的员工讨论亮度减缓问题已经快十年了。另一位鲁宾天文台的科学家表示,它与另外半数卫星公司进行了“积极的对话”。“他们一直很有帮助,或者说他们正在努力提供帮助,”他说。但他表示,星链卫星已经比国际天文学联合会的建议更亮,且肉眼可见。泰森没有与任何中国卫星制造商交谈过。科学家们表示,中国卫星有时比美国的卫星更亮。

SpaceX has voluntarily mitigated the brightness of its Starlink satellites, Tyson said. He has been discussing brightness mitigation with SpaceX staffers for almost a decade. Another Rubin scientist said it has had “positive dialogues” with a half-dozen other satellite companies. “They’ve been very helpful, or they’re trying to be,” he said. But Starlink satellites are already brighter than International Astronomical Union recommendations and visible to the unaided eye, he said. Tyson hasn’t talked to any Chinese satellite manufacturers. Chinese satellites are sometimes brighter than American ones, scientists said.

太空探索技术公司没有回应置评请求。谷歌和蓝色起源拒绝置评。无法联系到Cowboy Space置评。

SpaceX didn’t respond to requests for comment. Google and Blue Origin declined to comment. Cowboy Space couldn’t be reached for comment.

美国联邦通信委员会批准卫星项目,尽管它没有关于卫星可以有多亮的相关规定。“除了美国一项禁止太空广告的法律外,世界上任何地方都没有法律对夜间的视觉外观进行监管,”全球卫星监管评估报告《黑暗与宁静天空工作组2022年报告》指出。

The FCC approves satellite projects, though it doesn’t have any rules about how bright satellites can be. “With the exception of a U.S. law preventing space-based advertising, there are no laws regulating the visual appearance of the night sky” anywhere in the world, stated a 2022 Dark and Quiet Skies Working Group report that reviewed satellite regulations across the globe.

里贾纳大学副教授萨曼莎·劳勒表示,各公司计划使其轨道数据中心保持“太阳同步”,这意味着它们几乎总是会被阳光照亮,她最近曾与人合著了一篇关于轨道数据中心光污染的论文。

Companies plan to make their orbital data centers “sun-synchronous,” which means they would almost always be illuminated by the sun, said Samantha Lawler, an associate professor at the University of Regina who recently co-wrote a paper about light pollution from orbital data centers.

劳勒估计,这些太阳能卫星反射回地球的阳光将比其他卫星更多。劳勒说,它们的光芒将与金星一样耀眼,而金星已经是天空中最亮的点之一。总的来说,在夜间的某些时候,数十万颗这样的卫星可能会“彻底淹没”银河系和较暗的星星。

These solar-powered satellites would reflect even more sunlight back onto earth than other satellites do. Lawler estimates they would be as radiant as Venus, already one of the brightest points in the sky. Collectively, hundreds of thousands of these satellites would probably “completely drown out” the Milky Way and dimmer stars at certain times of night, Lawler said.

弗吉尼亚理工大学工程学教授肖恩·罗斯最近创建了一个模型,展示了太空探索技术公司的轨道数据中心从地球上看会是什么样子。他的预测显示了一条由数千个亮点组成的带子,从地平线延伸到地平线,在夜空中缓慢移动。

Shane Ross, an engineering professor at Virginia Tech, recently created a model of what SpaceX’s orbital data center would look like from Earth. His projection shows a belt of thousands of bright points, stretching from horizon to horizon, moving slowly across the night sky.A 12-second recording shows what an orbital data center could look like from Earth approximately an hour after sunset in December in the Northern Hemiphere at 10x speed, according to Shane Ross’s recently created model.

根据肖恩·罗斯最近创建的模型,一段12秒的录像以10倍速度展示了北半球12月日落后大约一小时,从地球上看轨道数据中心可能呈现的样子。 。

Credit: Shane Ross, Virginia Tech“It’s awesome, but it’s kind of unsettling,” he said.

当他分享这一预测时,反应各不相同。“有些人对此非常兴奋,”他说。“其他人则表示,我们正在毁掉人类的某些共同遗产。”

When he shared the projection, reactions varied. “Some people were really excited about this,” he said. “Others said we were ruining some common heritage of humankind.”

泰森和他在鲁宾天文台的同仁们刚刚开始他们为期10年的太空巡天。现在,他想知道他们是否会被迫提前结束这项实验。卫星不仅在望远镜照片上留下条纹,泰森还预测,巨型卫星星座会散射如此多的光线,以至于会使整个天空变亮。泰森说,最终“天空会太亮而无法进行任何观测”。

Tyson and his fellow astronomers at the Rubin Observatory just started their 10-year survey of space. Now, he wonders if they’ll be forced to end the experiment early. Not only do satellites leave streaks across the telescope’s photographs, but Tyson also projects that megaconstellations of satellites would scatter so much light that it would brighten the entire sky. Eventually, “the sky would be too bright to do anything,” Tyson said.

如欲联系丽贝卡·卡登黑德,请致信 rebecca.cadenhead@wsj.com

Write to Rebecca Cadenhead at rebecca.cadenhead@wsj.com

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