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印度向东盟传授反恐经验,但“一刀切”能否适用?India offers Asean counterterrorism lessons, but will one size fit all?

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随着印度寻求通过分享其经过实战检验的反恐专业知识来扩大与东南亚的安全合作,防务分析人士表示,鉴于威胁认知和国内优先事项的差异,印度的经验只能部分满足东盟的需求。

As India seeks to expand its security cooperation with Southeast Asia by sharing its battle-tested counterterrorism expertise, defence analysts say its experience would only partly meet Asean’s needs given the differences in threat perception and domestic priorities.

印度国防部长拉杰纳特·辛格周四在菲律宾宿务举行的东盟防长扩大会议(ADMM-Plus)上提出了这一提议。他以“辛杜尔行动”为例,展示印度的反恐能力,并提出通过联合演习、培训和情报共享,与东盟分享新德里的经验。

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh made the offer at the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) in Cebu on Thursday. Citing Operation Sindoor as an example of India’s counterterrorism capabilities, he offered to share New Delhi’s experience with the bloc through joint exercises, training and intelligence-sharing.

辛格表示:“印度的反恐经验并非理论知识,而是通过数十年应对包括跨境恐怖主义在内的复杂安全挑战而获得的。”

“India’s counterterrorism experience was not theoretical knowledge but had been acquired through decades of confronting complex security challenges, including cross-border terrorism,” Singh said.

去年5月7日,印度发动了“辛杜尔行动”,这是一场针对巴基斯坦和巴基斯坦控制的克什米尔地区九个据称属于武装分子营地的军事行动。该行动是为了回应一起袭击事件,该事件导致印度控制的查谟和克什米尔地区巴哈尔加姆镇26名平民丧生。伊斯兰堡否认参与了该袭击,随后对新德里进行了报复。

On May 7 last year, India launched Operation Sindoor, a military campaign that targeted nine alleged militant camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The operation was in response to an attack that killed 26 civilians in the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir town of Pahalgam. Islamabad denied any involvement in the attack and later retaliated against Delhi.

亚洲协会澳大利亚分会高级研究员普雷梅沙·萨哈表示,印度不仅是在现有的ADMM-Plus机制内进行合作,更是在推销其前线反恐经验。

Rather than just cooperating within existing ADMM-Plus mechanisms, India was marketing its frontline counterterrorism experience, said Premesha Saha, a senior fellow with Asia Society Australia.

萨哈表示,印度的经验只能在网络激进化、恐怖融资和沿海安全等领域部分满足东南亚国家联盟的需求。

Saha said India’s experience could only partly fulfil the needs of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in areas such as online radicalisation, terror financing and coastal security.

萨哈说:“2008年后,印度彻底改革了其沿海监视和海上信息共享架构。这一经验与苏禄-锡兰海等地区相关,武装分子在海上绑架事件促使印度尼西亚、马来西亚和菲律宾建立了联合巡逻。”

“After 2008, India overhauled its coastal surveillance and maritime information-sharing architecture. That experience is relevant to areas like the Sulu-Celebes Seas, where militant kidnappings at sea pushed Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines to set up joint patrols,” Saha said.

她补充说,印度将恐怖主义定性为跨境和国家支持的,而大多数东盟国家则将其视为主要是国内性和网络化的。

India framed terrorism as cross-border and state-sponsored, while most Asean states saw it as largely domestic and network-based, she added.

“该地区[东盟]已经与澳大利亚、美国和日本建立了深度反恐伙伴关系,因此参与将是选择性的、双边的,”他补充道,指的是棉兰老地区过去发生的恐怖袭击以及2017年马拉维市发生的致命围攻战。“菲律宾拥有棉兰老地区,且有马拉维围攻的记忆,可能会发现特定的培训和能力建设很有用。”

“The region [Asean] also already has deep counterterrorism partnerships with Australia, the US and Japan, so uptake will be selective and bilateral. The Philippines, with Mindanao and the memory of Marawi, may find specific training and capacity-building useful,” he added, referring to past terrorist attacks in the Mindanao region and the deadly 2017 siege in the city of Marawi.

战略与国防研究委员会杰出研究员桑杰·维尔马表示,虽然印度提出的合作涵盖联合演习、能力建设和情报共享,但伙伴关系的深度有限。

Sanjay Verma, a distinguished fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defence Research, said that while India’s proposed cooperation encompassed joint exercises, capacity building and intelligence sharing, there was a limit to how far the partnership could go.

“印度有许多跨境问题要应对,而东盟成员国有其自身的特殊性和挑战,因此这将更多基于国家与国家之间的基础,取决于成员国调整和合作的意愿,”已退役的维尔马中将说道。

“India has a multitude of cross-border issues to contend with, while Asean members have their own peculiarities and challenges, so this will be more on a country-to-country basis with the willingness of the members to align and cooperate,” said Verma, who is a retired lieutenant general.

不过,维尔马认为,印度是一位经验丰富的安全伙伴,没有地区霸权野心,可以提出与东盟分享其国防技术和其他领域。“印度将不得不与每个国家建立定制化的价值对话,”维尔马说。

Nonetheless, India is an experienced security partner without regional hegemony ambition and can offer to share its defence technologies and other areas with Asean, according to Verma. “India will have to create a customised value dialogue with each state,” Verma said.

印度和马来西亚已经在“东盟防长扩大会议”框架下共同担任反恐工作组联合主席,任期为2024年至2027年。两国于4月在马来西亚举行了反恐桌面推演,并计划明年在印度举行实地训练演习。

India and Malaysia are already co-chairing a counterterrorism working group whose mandate runs from 2024 to 2027 under the ADMM-Plus framework. Both countries conducted counterterrorism table-top exercises in Malaysia in April and are scheduled to hold a field-training exercise in India next year.

东盟研究中心高级研究员兼协调员乔安·林表示,印度的反恐合作、情报共享和能力建设已涵盖在2026年至2030年《东盟-印度行动计划》中。

Joanne Lin, a senior fellow and coordinator at the Asean Studies Centre, said India’s counterterrorism cooperation, intelligence sharing and capacity-building were covered under the Asean–India Plan of Action for 2026 to 2030.

“印度当然在应对跨境武装活动、叛乱和恐怖主义方面拥有良好经验,东南亚国家可以从分享经验中受益,特别是在情报收集、边境管理、反叛乱行动和瓦解恐怖主义网络方面,”林某说。

“India certainly has good experience in dealing with cross-border militancy, insurgency and terrorism, and Southeast Asian countries can benefit from sharing experiences, particularly in intelligence gathering, border management, counter-insurgency operations and disrupting terrorist networks,” Lin said.

林某说,菲律宾、印度尼西亚和马来西亚等国面临极端组织带来的安全挑战有一些相似之处,但它们的安全背景不一定相同。

Lin said there were some similarities with the security challenges from extremist groups faced by countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, but their security contexts were not necessarily the same.

她补充说,许多东盟成员国已通过执法、康复和社区参与,发展出了应对这些威胁的自身经验和能力。

Many Asean members had developed their own experience and capabilities in tackling these threats through law enforcement, rehabilitation and community engagement, she added.

“东盟国家会看到印度提议的实际价值。然而,合作的程度将取决于它们各自的安全需求和优先事项,印度的做法可能需要根据东南亚国家的不同情况进行调整。”印度的反恐提议是在其通过武器销售与菲律宾、越南和印度尼西亚扩大防务关系之际提出的。印度-俄罗斯合资企业布拉莫斯航空航天公司近年来已与这三个东盟成员国达成协议,向它们提供远程巡航导弹。

“Asean countries would see practical value in India’s offer. However, the extent of cooperation would depend on their respective security needs and priorities, and India’s approaches may need to be adapted to the different circumstances of Southeast Asian countries.”India’s counterterrorism proposal comes as it expands defence ties with the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia through weapon sales. BrahMos Aerospace, an Indian-Russian joint venture, has secured agreements with the three Asean members to supply them with its long-range cruise missiles in recent years.

萨哈说,布拉莫斯交易凸显了印度满足这些国家防务供应需求的承诺,并且它可以做得更多。通过将伙伴关系延伸至海上安全领域,印度可以加强在沿海监视、培训、舰船维修以及人道主义救援和灾难救助等领域的情报共享与合作。

Saha said the BrahMos deals underscored India’s commitment to meet these countries’ defence supply needs and it could do more. By extending the partnerships to maritime security, India could step up information-sharing and cooperation in areas including coastal surveillance, training, ship repair and humanitarian and disaster relief.

林某说,印度在海上安全、网络安全、反恐和人道主义救援方面的经验对东盟将特别有用,此类伙伴关系可以提升新德里作为该集团关键安全伙伴的相关性。

Lin said that India’s experience in maritime security, cybersecurity, counterterrorism, and humanitarian relief would be particularly useful for Asean, and such partnerships could enhance Delhi’s relevance as a key security partner for the bloc.

她补充道:“更多地参与东盟主导的机制,加上其双边防务伙伴关系,将是加强印度在地区安全中作用的有效途径。”

“Greater participation in Asean-led mechanisms, alongside its bilateral defence partnerships, would be a useful way to strengthen India’s role in regional security,” she added.

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