总统何塞·安东尼奥·卡斯特的支持率跌至历史新低，因一场关于提前释放已定罪儿童性犯罪者的争议，叠加了民众对经济停滞的愤怒，而他的任期才刚过八个月。
President José Antonio Kast’s approval rating sank to a record low as a controversy over the early release of convicted child sex offenders added to anger over a stagnant economy just eight months into his term in office.
周日发布的三项民调显示，卡斯特的支持率降至其总统任期内的最低点。Cadem民调显示其支持率为26%，自争议爆发以来下降了七个百分点，而Criteria和Pulso Ciudadano民调也记录到了新低。
Three polls released Sunday showed Kast’s approval at its lowest level of his presidency. Cadem put his approval at 26%, down seven points since the controversy began, while Criteria and Pulso Ciudadano also recorded fresh lows.
动荡始于曝光司法部长费尔南多·拉巴特签署法令，减轻数十名已定罪恋童癖者的刑期，允许部分人提前出狱。一项2022年法律曾将部分性犯罪者排除在该类减刑福利之外，但拉巴特领导的司法部认定，该限制不得追溯适用于法律修改前实施的犯罪。
The turmoil began after it emerged that Justice Minister Fernando Rabat had signed decrees reducing sentences for dozens of convicted pedophiles, allowing some to leave prison early. A 2022 law had excluded some sex offenders from such benefits, but Rabat’s ministry concluded the restriction could not be applied retroactively to crimes committed before the change.
“卡斯特的下滑看起来是结构性的，”政治学家、圣塞巴斯蒂安大学教授肯尼斯·邦克说。“这不是孤立事件，而是数月来积累的趋势，司法部危机只是加速了这一进程。”卡斯特3月就职时，Cadem民调显示其支持率为57%。
“Kast’s decline looks structural,” said Kenneth Bunker, a political scientist and professor at Universidad San Sebastian. “This is not an isolated episode, but a trend that has been building for several months and that the Justice Ministry crisis only accelerated.”Kast began his mandate in March with 57% approval in polls by Cadem.
这一事件对卡斯特打击尤大，因为他建立政治生涯的很大一部分承诺，是恢复法治秩序、对暴力犯罪采取更强硬手段。他现已承认政府犯了错，但选择留任拉巴特，辩称撤换部长无法解决根本问题。
The episode is particularly damaging for Kast because he built much of his political career on promises to restore law and order and take a tougher approach to violent crime. He has now acknowledged that the government made a mistake, but chose to keep Rabat in his post, arguing that removing the minister would not fix the underlying problem.
与此同时，拉巴特强力为自己的做法辩护，称司法部依法行事，并符合现有法院判决。
Meanwhile, Rabat has strongly defended what he did, arguing that the ministry acted in line with the law and existing court rulings.
Cadem民调显示，70%受访者不同意卡斯特留任拉巴特的决定，78%不认可该部长对此事的处理。
Seventy percent of those surveyed by Cadem disagree with Kast’s decision to keep Rabat, while 78% disapprove of the minister’s handling of the episode.
“部长的离职将化解眼前的危机，但无法挽回已造成的损害，”邦克说。“政治代价已经付出了。”这场争议也暴露了执政联盟内部的裂痕。反对派议员正准备针对拉巴特提出弹劾动议，一些右翼议员表示可能会支持该动议。这使得政府试图对议员们施加纪律约束，但对这些议员而言，为拉巴特辩护在选民面前要付出异常高昂的政治代价。
“The minister’s departure would resolve the immediate crisis, but it would not undo the damage,” Bunker said. “The approval cost has already been paid.”The controversy is also exposing cracks in the governing coalition. Opposition lawmakers are preparing an impeachment motion against Rabat, with some legislators on the right saying they may approve the motion. That leaves the government trying to impose discipline on lawmakers for whom defending Rabat carries an unusually high political cost with voters.
这场危机在周五夺去了首位高级政府官员的职位，卡斯特接受了司法次长路易斯·席尔瓦的辞呈，后者在代理拉巴特职务期间也曾签署部分有争议的法令。席尔瓦此前曾在社交媒体发布视频，称自己是依据部长制定的标准行事，且未与上级协调该信息。
The crisis claimed its first senior government official Friday, when Kast accepted the resignation of Justice Undersecretary Luis Silva, who had also signed some of the disputed decrees while standing in for Rabat. Silva had previously posted a video on social media saying he had acted under criteria established by the minister, without coordinating the message with his boss.