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多策略巨头扎堆同类交易,增加大幅回撤风险Multistrat Giants Crowd Into Same Trades, Raising Odds of a Rout

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根据 PivotalPath 最新报告,大型多策略对冲基金管理的资金规模不断扩大,在相当大的杠杆加持下,越来越多地投资于同一批股票,一旦市场遭遇冲击,可能引发更大动荡。

Large multistrategy hedge funds are managing more money, using a healthy dose of leverage and increasingly investing in the same stocks, according to a new PivotalPath report, creating a potential for greater upheaval in the event of a market shock.

这 10 家未被研究机构点名的大型多策略基金,截至 2025 年底管理的资产(含借入资金)达 2.2 万亿美元,较 2018 年增加两倍多。

The 10 large multistrats, which aren’t identified by the research firm, oversaw $2.2 trillion including borrowed money at the end of 2025. That’s more than triple the amount in 2018.

PivotalPath 估算,目前的借贷水平约为其合计净资产 3600 亿美元的 6 倍。其中 6 家多经理人基金——即采用多个交易小组模式的基金——杠杆最高,将净资本放大了 8 到 14 倍。

The current level of borrowing is about six times their combined net assets of $360 billion, PivotalPath estimated. The six multimanager funds in the group — those that use multiple trading pods — had the highest leverage, ramping up their net capital by eight to 14 times.

PivotalPath 还发现,这 10 家巨头的美股持仓彼此重叠程度,高于与其他对冲基金的重叠程度。自 2019 年以来,它们的收益相关性也比圈外基金更高。

PivotalPath also found that the US stock holdings of the 10 giant firms overlapped more with one another than with other hedge funds. Since 2019, their returns have also become more correlated with one another compared with funds outside the cohort.

PivotalPath 在报告中表示:“这些发现并不预示压力即将来临。它们表明,若冲击同时波及这些管理人,将遭遇高杠杆、重叠持仓”,并可能导致锁定期较短的管理人难以满足赎回请求。

“These findings do not predict stress,” PivotalPath said in the report. “They indicate that a shock affecting these managers together would meet high leverage, overlapping positions” and potentially make it difficult for managers with shorter lockups to meet redemption requests.

行业最大的几家公司大多设有长达数年的锁定期,以避免被迫抛售。PivotalPath 发言人拒绝在报告之外发表评论。

Most of the industry’s biggest firms have lockups that extend several years, a way to avoid forced selling. A representative for PivotalPath declined to comment beyond the report.

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