摩根大通策略师表示，随着MSCI公司将希腊升级为发达市场，新兴市场跟踪基金被迫卖出，希腊股市将面临资金流出。
Greek stocks will suffer outflows as MSCI Inc.’s upgrade of the country to developed-market status forces emerging-market trackers to sell, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
由潘卡杰·古普塔领导的团队在报告中写道，这一变更将于5月生效，将促使以新兴市场指数为基准的基金卖出51亿美元。发达市场跟踪基金预计将买入48亿美元，估计净流出约为2.75亿美元。
The change, due to take effect in May, would prompt $5.1 billion of selling from funds benchmarked to emerging-market indexes, a team led by Pankaj Gupta wrote in a note. Developed-market trackers are expected to buy $4.8 billion, leaving an estimated net outflow of about $275 million.
古普塔表示：“我们估计，希腊整体被动基金净流动的影响为负。”
“We estimate the overall net passive fund flow impact for Greece to be negative,” Gupta said.
MSCI于3月将希腊股票升级，这标志着该国从债务危机中复苏的一个里程碑，当时这场危机是欧元区经济的主要威胁。
MSCI upgraded Greek stocks in March, marking a milestone in the country’s recovery from a debt crisis that at the time was a key threat to the euro-area economy.
自本十年开始以来，雅典证券交易所综合指数一直表现优异，包括股息再投资的回报率为246%，而斯托克欧洲600指数的回报率为94%。然而，与今年创下新高的多数欧洲基准指数不同，雅典指数仍远低于2007年全球金融危机前的峰值。
The Athens Stock Exchange General Index has been an outperformer since the start of the decade, returning 246% including reinvested dividends, compared with 94% for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Still, unlike most European benchmarks, which have set new records this year, the Athens index remains far off its peak in 2007 before the global financial crisis.
摩根大通策略师表示，此次升级将使希腊股票在新基准中的权重显著降低。
The upgrade will give Greek equities a significantly smaller weight in their new benchmarks, the JPMorgan strategists said.
古普塔表示，希腊在MSCI世界指数中的权重预计为0.06%，而目前在MSCI新兴市场标准指数中的权重为0.61%。该公司表示，新兴市场指数中的10只希腊股票中，预计有7只将转入发达市场基准。希腊在MSCI欧洲指数和EAFE基准中的权重预计分别为0.41%和0.27%。
Greece’s weight in the MSCI World Index is projected to be 0.06%, compared with 0.61% currently in the MSCI EM Standard Index, Gupta said. Of the 10 Greek stocks in the the emerging markets index, seven are expected to transition to the developed-market benchmark, the firm said. The country’s weight is expected to be 0.41% and 0.27% in MSCI’s Europe and EAFE benchmarks, respectively.